RANDOM NOTES

Dominion, Volume 38, Issue 306, 25 September 1945, Page 6

RANDOM NOTES

(By

KICKSHAWS.)

An expert .says that 1936 beer is not as good as it might be. What about the 1945 variety? , ■ "

Demobilized Russians from Great War II it is reported, receive a new uniform as they leave. Apparently Stalin has no illusions when Great War 111 is due.

* ' '■ • . • ■ ; ' Work is reported to be starting on the new House of Commons, and it is expected that the building will be ready ii» just over three years. Let us hope that this time the estimate is more or less close to the mark. The time before when the House ofiCommons was burned down it took no fewer than 12. years to rebuild. The estimated cost was just about as far out as had been the Ume. The cost, it was thought, would be £750,000. By the time that the new Commons was opened by -the Queen in 1852 the cost had risen to three millions. As Dickens remarked during the building operations: “The sticks set fire to the panelling: the panelling set i fire to the House of Lords; the House of Lords set fire, to the House of Commons ; the two Houses were reduced to ashes; Architects were called in to build others; and we are now in the second million of the cost thereof; the national pig is not nearly over the stile yet; and the old woman, Britannia, hasn’t got home tonight?'

Air Chief Marshal Harris declares that tlie atom bomb will dominate future wars. Furthermore, American experts declare that a navy will still be required to deliver the atom bomb to its target via aircraft-carriers. Before one assumes that this or that will result in war from a new scientific development, it is prudent to realize that with almost every uew invention there was a prediction that it woyld change war complete* ly. The invention of the canuou, it was declared round about the time of Crecy, would completely alter war- It did, but not in the way expected. It gave to industrial nations a victory which before had gone to sinew and muscle. When the ironclad replaced the bulwarks of wood at sea. it was stated that iron ships would revolutionize sea warfare. The very fact that the methods of Nelson still hold good, but on a larger scale, would seem to suggest that the dramatic revolution did not materialize in quite the way expected. When the aeroplane appeared it wag predicted that navies would become outmoded. What happens in the light of all new scientific war inventions is thdt they are gradually adopted and tactics or even strategy makes provision for the change. Rarely. if ever, has a new weapon, including the torpedo, produced the drastic changes expected.

It is probable that the atomic bomb will take its place in the war armoury of nations in such a way that it will help to exploit present methods, rather than make them all out of date. All significant war inventions go through three phases. There is first the phase when there is no accredited antidote, and during which the weapons seem to dominate war. The tank is an example. In the next phase modifications are made in tactics, new methods of defence are found and the new weapon, though modifying war, becomes absorbed into existing frameworks. The tank did that in Great War 11. The last phase occurs when methods of defence succeed in beating the new device or at least neutralizing it to an extent which causes it to cease to dominate the battlefield. The tank has reached this phase. As with new weapons so with new tactics. It would be unwise to assume that' the atomic bomb is destined to be the exception.

Till more is known about the atomic bomb it is not possible to define its scope in war. The first factor is, however, clear. A new significance _ will be put on defence, specially in the air. The Power which gets through the defences and delivers its atomic bomb produces a heart punch. One may therefore expect that enormous strides will be made in matters pertaining to defence. This may be some form of death-ray or a side issue from the atomic bomb itself. The time is thus manifestly nearer when aeroplanes will be unable to fly with impunity over defended areas or within many miles of them. This period, during which defence is strengthened, will also include efforts to protect populations against the effects of atomic radiation. One may expect that certain oils, perhaps with a kerosene base, will be found capable of mitigating the worst effects. Underground defences will assume a new first priority significance. It is probable that these defences will be lined with special radiationresisting materials, possibly vaseline or some such compound. Naturally all war factories will be underground and invisible. It may take years for protective devices to be perfected, but it would be unwise to assume that they will never be.

In the interval, while antidotes to the atomic bomb are being worked out, this weapon will dominate war. In fact, a nation without the secret and without protection or adequate defence will be at the mercy of the nations wielding atomic power. This is what happened to the bow and arrow nations when gunpowder was first exploited. This reduces the probability of war to those nations who possess the secret. _ No doubt firms already internationalized for the production of weapons of war will eventually be selling atomic bombs to nations incapable of manufacturing them; as is done with -all other weapons. At present. however, nothing is known of what happens when an atomic bomb is allowed to detonate on or below ground level. It may produce an area where radiation effects, or even eruptive effects, will persist for a long period. U tions on the defensive may be , kiJ" drop a series of atomic bombs all alon » the main key points of a hostile boundary. Across this no-man’s laud an advancing army could not pass.

Just what Will be the effect of the atomic bomb at sea has yet to be dis covered bv trying out such a bomb a o amst a large battleship. It is. more than likely that the bomb would destroy a battleship either by melting it or by disturbances in the surrounding sea itself. Defence against devices at sea for transporting the bomb thus assume a new significance. This means defences against all forms of craft that fly through the ah’ or float in water, and possibly against atomic projectlies. One may thus assume that in the first phase sb i • of war Will have to be equipped witb "reatlv augmented methods ot anti-air-craft and other defence. some device Will be exploited for disintegrating projectiles in the air or torpedoes under the "’atcr. Fron .’„ a , D ofteu point of view navies will be required for some time yet to transport and protect the atomic devices used againsi a distant enemy. It must be assumed, however, that even distant enemies will have at their command various longrange rockets aud the like which will enable them to strike at hostile fleets many hundreds of miles, away. Hence, defensive weapons to resist those strikes will become priority number one among navies. Eventually naval tactics will be forced to write off any vessel struck bv nn atomic bomb; much as a destroyer is now written off if struck by an outsize normal bomb. One can thus imagine that uavai tactics will be mouthed DJ the atomic bomb, which will be adapted and adopted and eventually absorbed into naval methods of fighting. Only when atomic driven navies of the air appear will the nautical counterpart disappear.

Just when the atomic bomb will reach its final phase, the phase where it will become neutralized to such an extent that it will cease to dominate war, is impossible to predict. At present the'wore! is only on tbe threshold of atomic knowledge.' Onlv the more unstable atoms can be utilized. It is probable that this secret will develop till almost any atom mav be disrupted. We thus will have reached a stage Where the very structure of the terrestial globe itself may be jeopardized. Quite clearly if man reaches such a stage war will become ridiculous. No warring nations would be prepared to blow the world to bits to gam their end or even to blow half of it to bits. It would be indeed a chipped and bntterid world that would be handed down to posterity. By then mankind will hare responsibilities toward the world .-is a whole greater than the petty quarrels of nations. If man insists on wars, there can be only one answer —global hara kiri—a great big bang and then Nirvana.