The Dominion TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 1943. ANALYSING THE FIGURES

Dominion, Volume 37, Issue 2, 28 September 1943, Page 4

The Dominion TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 1943. ANALYSING THE FIGURES

For some time to come an analysis of the election figures will provide an interest for many people, and particularly for the various 'political party headquarters. They will show, in the first place, that the New Zealand voter, like British people in other parts of the Commonwealth of Nations, realizes that our system of government operates most efficiently when there are but two parties, the one providing an alternative government to the other. One of the most capable writers on these matters has stated'that “the ever-present possibility of. an alternative government is actually the decisive fact of English political life.” In that respect at least it can be said that the poll taken on Saturday has clarified and simplified the position, for the Independent and other minor groups received short shrift. The following table is based on voting aggregates compiled at the close of the last three general elections, and the figures may later have been subject to minor alterations, but for the purposes of general comparison they are sufficient:

It will be seen that the Labour wave reached its peak in 1938 and has since subsided fairly rapidly. On the other hand, the aggregate National Party vote has steadily increased, and even if -it should be contended that the greater part of the Democrat vote in 1935 was drawn from the National ranks, its total reinclhsion in 1938 not account fully for the increase shown. Compared with the 1935 figures the votes recorded for Government candidates have increased by about 53,000 and that of the National total by nearly 100.000. This must be an indication that the majority of those who have qualified for the vote in recent years have not chosen to support the policy of the present Administration, and they would constitute the major addition to the voting strength of the Dominion. the effects of these movements on the constitution of the House of Representatives can be shown in a table, and in that which folloxvs the Labour aggregate for 1935 includes two Maoii membets who were classified as “Ratana” members:

The figures show the inability of the independent to secure public support. But they also show the inability of the Government to maintain its position. On the other hand, the National stiength has grown very steadily and in the next Parliament will be able to exercise much more influence. It seems safe to predict that ministerial absences on long world tours will not be as numerous as they have been since 1935. . ~ , , . , o Another basis of comparison is that provided by the nguies lelating to ministerial seats- It is significant that not a single Minister increased his majority last Saturday. In nine instances the decline in the former majorities of individual Ministers ran well into four guies and in two or three instances the falling-away exceeded 2000 votes. It will be for those concerned to explain, or attempt to explain away, this adverse movement, but probably Ministers and their supporters realize that, as it certain general is reported to have stated on an histone occasion, “another victory like that and the campaign is lost.

1935. 1938. 1943. Labour 357,018 ... ... 494,425 ... ... 410.594 National .... 269,131 ... ... 356,031 ... ... 368,119 Democrat .... 00.996 ... Dem. Lab —- - - . . . . • • • 36,921 Others 84,383 ... ... 34,815 ... 46,300 ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ •■■■ ■ — 772,128 ... ... 885,271 ... ... 861,934

Labour National Independent . 1935. 54 1938. .... 54 .... 1943 44 20 .... .... 2.4 .... 34 .. 6 .... 2