The Dominion FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 1941. A GENERAL AXIS OFFENSIVE

Dominion, Volume 34, Issue 120, 14 February 1941, Page 6

The Dominion FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 1941. A GENERAL AXIS OFFENSIVE

Out of the welter of reports, rumours, and surmises concerning the immediate future of the war situation there emerges a very strong suggestion that a general Axis offensive, military and diplomatic. had been planned for this year. The strategical idea Seems to have been that Italy, taking advantage of the favourable season for operations in North Africa, would strike first during the European winter, acting on the assumption that Egypt would fall an easy prey, and that Greece would offer no resistance to demands for the passage of Italian troops through her territory or the occupation of Greek sea bases. This part of the programme, had it been successful, would have compelled such a distribution of Britain’s armed forces—sea, land, and air—that Hitler would have been encouraged and assisted with his preparations for the invasion of the United Kingdom. In the Far East, Japan in the meantime presumably was to create by aggressive propaganda a state of unrest that would be calculated to embarrass British strategy elsewhere and draw United States attention from the task of supporting Britain with supplies to her own interests in the Pacific.

Any such plans must necessarily have been upset by the failure of the Italians to cany out their part of the scheme. British seapower completely dominates the Mediterranean. North Africa as an Axis military asset has lost its significance, and the whole of Italian territory in North-east Africa is rapidly falling into the hands of the British Imperial forces. Had the plan succeeded there would probably have been no need for German military concentrations in the Balkans. The moral effect of the Italian conquests in the Middle East, had these materialized, would have been sufficient to enable the Axis Powers to dictate their terms to the Balkan States and obtain their submission to the New Order without recourse to military operations. The Italian failure has. therefore, compelled Hitler to adopt a course to. which, it is well known, he has always been opposed—namely, to carry on a war on two fronts, for it now seems certain that he intends to launch an offensive in the Balkans in an attempt to bolster up the position, and at the same time invade, or at least make a pretence of invading, the United Kingdom. In this effort it is quite obvious that his plans would be greatly helped by a demonstration in the Far East by Japan, either in the shape of actual intervention in the war or a threat of it. There can be little doubt that great pressure is being exerted by Germany in order to use Japan to offset the loss of Axis prestige caused by Italy’s inglorious performance. Whatever Japan stood to gain by allying herself with the Axis in the role of a non-belligerent partner, the question now no doubt agitating her leaders is whether these gains will be furthered by active intervention.

The 10-year military, political, and economic pact concluded with the European Axis Powers provided for mutual assistance in the event of an attack on any member of the alliance by a Power not at present engaged in the war. In present circumstances this clearly refers to either Russia or the United States. Every possible effort is being made by the Axis group to propitiate Russia, even to the extent of effecting a pact of non-aggression between that country and Japan, but the Axis attitude toward the United States is one of undisguised hostility. Germany is quite capable of construing American assistance to Britain as an act of war and so endeavour to manoeuvre Japan into the arena. In any case, we in this country, as the Prime Minister Mr. Fraser, has broadly hinted, have to face the possibility of a general Axis offensive both in the East and the West. He hinted at more—that we might have to make up our minds to wcat our clothes longer and be satisfied with lower wages. It is about time the country got into this frame of mind, and the Prime Minister has done some service in calling attention to the fact.