INDICATION OF STOCK WORTH

Dominion, Volume 31, Issue 242, 9 July 1938, Page 7 (Supplement)

INDICATION OF STOCK WORTH

Prospective Returns The calculations here offered are based upon the assumption that prices for meat and wool will next season be, as for the season past, say Bd. for lambs, 25/- for fat wethers 16/- for a fat ewe, lOd. for sheep wool and lid. lor hogget wool. The grazing period is viewed as one ol approximately six months, one that includes both the hardest and easiest periods of the year, so that it may be viewed as a fair half-year. Five-year Ewes: Good five-year ewes are priced at 24/-. Returns are assessed as: Wool, 91b. at 10d., 7/6; less shearing and selling 1/3 ; net 6/3. Lambs and 100 per cent., averaging 341 b. at fed., less seconds and culls, say, 22/6 a ewe. Ewes sold, half as fats at. 16/-, half earned forward as breeders, or sold as such, worth 18/6; less allowance for some culls, say 17/-, average value at end of JanuQl Total of returns, 45/9. Ewe costs 24/-, add losses for period 4 per cent., less deduction for skin values recovered, net addition say 8(1. Total cost, 24/8. Profit shown, 21/1. This profit is unduly- great, for the half-year. In other words, ewes are.unduly cheap at present. A fair-year’s profit on a ewe is 25/-, so the fair half-year's would be 12/6, say even 14/-..'’ .On this basis, a good fiveyear ewe is to-day worth 31/-, instead o. 24/-. Ewe Hoggets: Fairly good ewe hoggets have lately sold at 24/6 only, the price they made six months ago. Returns on these arc: Wool, 61b. at lid., 5/6; less shearing and selling 1/3; net, 4/3. Value as a two-tooth ewe at end of January, allowing for a few culls in the line, 35/-, less selling cost if sold, 1/3, say, net 33/9. Total return, 38/- net. Hogget- nas cost 24/6; add 1/- for 4 per cent, losses, total cost 25/6. Profit shown, 12/6. If 20/- a full year be accepted as.fair profit on a ewe, then two-thirds of that would be ample on a hogget. Hence 17/- would be a reasonable'year’s return on our ewe hogget. For the half-year--’ahead, 8/6, say' 9/-, would ’be >reasonable. The profit seen, at 12/6, indicates that ewe hoggets are at present 3/6 below value. A ewe hogget line selling -at 24/6, is really. worth, on this basis, 2S/-; that was for a fair grade ewe hogget. Really good hoggets, which would return 1-21'b. more wool, and a ewe to sell 2/- to 3/- higher, could well be assessed at around 32/-. Wether Hoggets.— First class- wether hoggete are making 21/- top-price. ’ Returns on these are: Wool, (jib. at lid, 6/8; less shearing and selling at 1/3, net 5/5. A.fat two-tooth wether ex shears basis, a well-grown and prime sheep, worth 25/-. A proportion got off early should balance any culls. Total return,. 30/5. „ . ' .' . ■ Hogget- cost 21/-, add. 2 per cent, .for losses. 6d. Total coot 21/6. Profit 8/11; say, 9/-. V,’ethers, will . probably be got off a month' earlier than the ewes. Apart from that, one should expect to see- almost as much profit in them, as for -ewes, except for- a little less capital involved. A fair profit on the wether hogget would be 8/. On this basis, the wether hogget is just 1/- below true value. As made clear, all thesc estimates are based upon the assumption that next season’s export values will be as for the past At present, one can see no real reason to anticipate -otherwise. Dairy Stock. Dairy stock is in quite another category. They are plant, producing capital, of little realisable value when they cease to produce. , .. When buying a cow or heifer, one is not greatly concerned about her eventual, final return as a boner. 1 he main thought is of her producing value, and that rests principally on the price of butterfat. 1 In large degree, dairy stock values an. determined falsely, upon the amount of money in circulation. There is another, a sound checking means of determining assess the worth of a firstcalving heifer at “cost <> £ P. rod “ c Careful calculation reveals this to be 18 at present for a first-class heifer. For my part, I cannot see that a cow is worth any more than that heifer. Tru lj, she will produce more on a season, but each season levies its toll of .‘leprecmfio n. The heifer has a longer life ahead in which to depreciate. . . This time last year fair good dairy herds sold at £B/8/- average. Lately they have sold at fLo/- higher. . ins The production cost of <airy stock ha be When e ’herds sold at £4/5/-, m ■1935. they were £2 below their true. value, to dav they are £l/10/- above, it. So we must state that dairy cows at “ there i« Ji Millie slmta.ee «< and heifers in the Do « n T° I nQM7 So were.reared in the period.™ if to-dav’s values be over high, that is dui needed encouragement to farmers to rais more dairy replacement stock.