OUTWARD FLOW

Dominion, Volume 26, Issue 290, 2 September 1933, Page 8

OUTWARD FLOW

Dominion’s Population

SLUMP’S REACTION “Push” from New Lands SIGNIFICANCE TRACED The reaction of an economic depression upon emigration was traced by Dr. E. P. Neale, of Auckland, in an address delivered last evening to the Wellington branch of the Economic Society of Australia and: New Zealand. Departures from New Zealand to countries other? than Australia were actually greater in 1930 and 1931 than in more prosperous ‘times, he said, confirming the principle that in times of depression the "push” from new lands was likely to be more powerful than the resistance from the older lands which themselves were experiencing a . period of depression. t Dr, Neale devoted a considerable i portion of ' ; his address to showing the trend of. emigration from Europe during the ' 19th century, mainly to America. Many facts could be adduced in support of the proposition that expulsion from old lands was the main motivating force of migration in the first half and attraction from new countries in the Second half of the nineteenth century, he said. - Thus, a study of the migration figures of last century showed that on the numerous occasions when either periods of prosperity or periods of depression synchronised in Great Britain and in the new lands', migration tended to. be high till'about 1852, when depression prevailed, while It tended to be high after 1852, when prosperity prevailed. These facts were quite closely borne out by a' study of fluctuations (in migration from the British Isles to new lands, with special reference to the condition of the Irish potato crop.; 7. The Early ’Sixties. Male arrivals in New Zealand rose from 5460 in 1860 to 34,510 in 1863, Dr. Neale said, while New Zealand actually lost 602,males on migration balance in .. 1868. The swollen migration figures of the early 'sixties and the high proportion of males among arrivals was accounted Tor by the gold rushes and the advent'of the military "to quell and of military settlers to cope with the disturbances with the Maoris. The principal gold rushes took' place in 1861 and 1863, and were followed by a considerable exodus in subsequent years, although numerous minor discoveries occurred throughout the decade, each with some effect in the direction of stimulating immigration and inhibiting emigration. Economic conditions, might be described as “dynamic” In new countries, compared with the relatively “static” conditions prevailing in the old countries whence were recruited.the I new elements' in. the population , of young and. progressive lands. Such differences between new ant] old lands had gradually become less marked as manufactures had been established In the new Jands and as development of means of transport and other capital equipment proceeded; and this accounted for some recent falling-off In the strength of the “pull” from new lands In times of prosperity. But these differences between old and new lands still existed and were still potent factors in the migration field. . Outward Net Migration. — The main reason for the appearance •f an outward net migration in the Case of .Australia in 1930 and not till 1931 In. the case of New Zealand was probably the greater dependence of Australia than New Zealand on wool ' and wheat, which both slumped more than meat, butter, cheese, and the •ther primary products that rank relatively higher among. New Zealand’s , •xportS., By. 1931 New Zealand, too, had begun to feel the full force of the depression, and the migration .movement slackened off with the assistance of temporary legislation passed on April 17? 1931. > ,■ Tjie departures from New Zealand to. countries other than Australia were actually, greater in 1930 and 1931 than in more . prosperous times —namely, some 2000 in 1931, compared with an average of 800 for the years 1922 to ■ 1926. In 1930 permanent arrivals in New Zealand from Australia which had fluctuated between 1370 and' 1880 for many years past rose suddenly to 3208, falling again to the normal figure of 1563 in 1931. Likewise permanent departures from New Zealand to. Australia fell from 1578 in 1929 to 955 in 1930.' ... ' This confirmed the principle that" in times of depression the “push” from new lands, was likely to be more powerful than the resistance from the older lands which themselves were experiencing a period of depression. So also in 1930 Australia actually lost over 11,000 persons, and in 1931 12,000 on migration balance. .•7, Bitter Necessity. “It would seem that, driven by the bitter necessity of seeking an adequate livelihood elsewhere, many Australians and New Zealanders do at times of depression depart, from ‘fresh fields and pastures new’ before their funds are so exhausted as to prevent departure; In many instances no doubt drawing on nest eggs laid aside over many years,” he said. “In new countries like Australia and. New Zealand, where Income per head of population and standards of living are high, the onset of depression less often means immediate penury than in those old countries where sO much of the population lives close to the margin of subsistence. “During the years 1888-1891 New Zealand was losing population heavily on migration balance, following the petering out of public works activities and the depressing effect -of a steady downward tendency over many years of the prices realised in the world’s markets by New Zealand staple products. Australia had a similar experience a year or so later. The only previous important occasions on which New Zealand has idst population on migration balance were 1888, 1890 and 1891,” he added. “In 1889 New Zealand lost female population on migration balance, but this wps just more than offs set by a slight gain of male population on migration balance.”