RAYON VERSUS WOOL

Dominion, Volume 23, Issue 80, 28 December 1929, Page 12

RAYON VERSUS WOOL

FIELDS OF DISPLACEMENT AN ANALYTICAL SURVEY The sharp decline in the prices of raw wool during the past year has given rise to an interesting variety of explanations for the course of events, particularly in those quarters most affected by the slump in values (writes A. W. Zelomek, Statistician of the Fairchild Analytical Bureau, in a special article in, the "Textile Journal of Australia”). One of the major reasons that has been assigned and about which much comment has been heard is the increasing competition of rayon with wool. This has been emphasised with particular stress by British observers, but has not lacked exponepts on the Continent and in the Lnited broadly, there is no question that rayon yarns have displaced wool to some extent in a few industries and for particular uses, yet the evidence is lacking that this displacement has been very marked. What changes have taken place have been less the result of competition between the fibres than the natural outcome of altered modes of living, not only in the Lnited States, but in European countries as well. Demand for Rayon. It is agreed that the industries In which rayon and wool have entered Itno the closest competitive relationship are the hosiery and underwear industries in England, and, in some instances, on the Continent. Consumer demand has been growing steadily more insistent on the qualities of lightness and style in these articles of apparel, as modern living conditions have gradually overcome the necessity for warmth, with the closed automobile, well-heated buildings, and means of transportation, and other improvements in comfort commonplaces of every-day living. There has also been considerable comment on the fact that climatic conditions have contributed to making the demand for warm clothing less rigorous, but the best available scientific evidence refuses to support this contention. It can scarcely be given credence by careful observers of the situation, and must be termed, at best, a specious argument advanced by those who are at a loss for a sounder reason to assign. Although it is generally felt that rayon is being more widely used in place of wool in England and on the Continent than in the United States, the absence of available data from those sources makes it necessary to’ confine our analysis to this country. As the production and consumption of rayon has shown greater gains in the United States than in any other country in the world, however, one is justified in accepting the figures available relating to conditions here and generalising on the basis of them regarding conditions in other comparable countries. Proper Perspective Needed. Before entering into an analysis of the competitive relations existing between wool and rayon, however, a proper perspective must be maintained by keeping in mind that, despite the enormous growth in the world output of rayon, which has been estimated by the Fairchild Analytical Bureau at approximately 467.000,000 pounds for 1929, the total production and consumption of rayon is relatively unimportant when compared with the total output of wool. We find, for example, that the world production of raw wool totalled 20.48 per eent. of the total production of all textile fibres in 1928, while rayon constituted only 2.19 per cent., cotton 76.35 per cent., and Bilk .62 per cent. In 1913 the production of wool represented 17.9 per cent, of the total world output of textile fibres, while cotton represented 81.6 per cent., silk .35 per cent., and rayon only .15 per cent. These figures indicate clearly not only that rayon is relatively unimportant when compared with wool, but that wool, like rayon, has been gaining in importance relative to other fibres. A survey of consumption of the four leading fibres in the United States in 1928 is no less revealing. Raw wool represented 16.24 per cent, of the total textile, fibres consumed, while cotton accounted for 79.34 per cent., silk 1.92 per cent., and rayon 2.50 per cent. Such data as these should be more than enough to convince those observers who have taken a very gloomy view of what they considered to be a steady encroachment of rayon upon all of the other textile fibres that the importance of their argument has been overrated. Regarding the consumption of rayon in industries where mixtures of two or more textile fibres are used, it appears that cotton and silk are much more important than rayon, and that, if any serious competition exists, it is between these fibres and rayon, rather than between rayon and wool. An analysis of the fibres and yarns consumed in the different branches of the woollen industry in tlie United States in 1927 reveals that 12,025,489. pounds of cotton yarns were consumed in the manufacture of woollen fabrics, while only 735,164 pounds of rayon was used. The situation did not vary in the worsted division, where 19,549,897 pounds of cotton was consumed, while only 788,748 pounds of rayon was employed. Outcome of Natural Forces. If any displacement has been taking place, however, it has been in the knitwear industry, and here it has been the outcome of natural forces at work which would have resulted in the use of silk and cotton had it not been for the accident of the perfecting of rayon yarns so that they were especially adaptable to the needs of the industry. The'importance of wool had been declining steadily in tlie knitwear industry since before the Great War, as the demand for light-weight underwear became more and more insistent. Even before the production of rayon on a large commercial scale began, the annual consumption of wool in this industry had turned downward. Hence, a cause and effect relationship cannot be reasonably assumed. The figures on the consumption of the various fibres in the knit underwear industry reveal that the period of sharpest decline in tlie consumption of wool came between 1904 and 1909 (tlie heyday of rayon a decade and a half later). In the former year 17,068,788 pounds of wool was consumed by the knit underwear industry in tills country. By 1909 this had declined to 7.068,788 pounds; by 1914 to 6.947,598 pounds; and by 1919 to 4,518,068 younds. Between 1919 and 1925, the last year for Which figures are available, the trend turned slightly upward again, and consumption in the latter year was 6,222 931 pounds. A comparison of yarns purchased in the years enumerated by both the woollen and worsted industries, excluding Merino, shows the following:— Wool, excluding Merino: 1925, 10,352,910 lb.; 1919, u,383,9261b.; 1914, 7,145,4531 b * 1909, ■ 6,140,2651 b.; 1904, 4,839,3431 b. Worsted, excluding Merino: 1925, 24.546 - 3601 b.; 1919, 12,635,6311 b.; 1914, 14,305,333 lb;: 1909; 10,370,0041 b.; 1904, 8,789,5701 b. Merino wool and worsted: 1925, 10,090.4621 b.; 1919, 6,965,2561 b.; 1914, 4,333,3091 b.; 1909, • 4,014,6091 b.; 1904, 2,568,8901 b. Outlook for the Future. There seems little reason to doubt that the gradual displacement of wool by other fibres in the knitwear industry would have occurred even without the perfection of rayon yarns. Either silk or cotton undoubtedly would have been employed to an increasing extent to satisfy the consumer demand for a particular kind .of garment which could not be manufactured of pure wool. It is obviously true, however, that the Introduction of a fibre of the. cheapness and adaptability of rayon has made it possible for the knitwear industry to produce fabrics which would not have been possible otherwise, and to keep trade which would have been lost to manufacturers of fabrics using ' silk or cotton. Hence the increasing use of rayon must lie regarded as, in reality, a blessing in disguise. Instead of restricting the consumption of ‘raw wool, it has probably actually stimulated it. Present style trends indicate that the use of woollen and worsted fabrics in the women’s apparel industry will be on a greater scale than ever before in the coming season, particularly as lighter and more decorative fabrics are introduced and perfected. The use of rayon lias definitely aided both in the successful manufacture of light-weight woollens and in • their styling. In conclusion, therefore, it appears that wool-growers and manufacturers should regard rayon less as a competitive fibre than' as an allied or co-operative fibre, offering endless possibilities for the development of mixtures, and thus stimulating the consumption of both fabrics. The Industry as a whole should not be content to sit back and watch developments, follow an uncertain course in this direction. however, but should aggressively promote the use of their own fibre, whether alone or in mixtures, by promotional research and educational efforts. WHEAT MARKET (Rec. December 27, 5.5 p.m.) New York, December 26. Chicago Wbi'iit. -December, 1 dollar 26 3,-8 cents; March, 1 dollar 32} cents; May, 1 dolliw 36 caqia.