DAIRY INDUSTRY

Dominion, Volume 22, Issue 120, 14 February 1929, Page 12

DAIRY INDUSTRY

SHIPPING ARRANGEMENTS REGULATION OF CHEESE FAVOURABLE BUTTER PROSPECTS Important decisions were reached yesterday by the New Zealand Dairy Produce Export Board In relation to the shipments of butter and cheese hi future months to the United Kingdom. These decisions were determined on the basis of reports as to market supplies and prospects, and wer- dictated by the desire to procure for the producers the best returns possible. i The cheese market for the. current season opened at a very satisfactory level, and sales of parcels were made by factories at comparatively high money. At the end of November the price of New Zealand coloured cheese ranged from 100 s. to 102 s. per cwt. and continued at a satisfactory level until the opening of the New Year. In recent weeks, an easing has taken place until to-day’s price stands at from 88s. to 89s. for white cheese, and from JJs. to 935. for coloured cheese, although Canadian cheese has maintained the level ruling in early December, and has not shared in the reduction that has obtained in respect of New Zealand cheese. , A particularly favourable season has been experienced in New Zealand for production, indicating that the total figures for the year will constitute a record. In these circumstances, cheese producers have become particularly interested In the current market price and the probable course of the market in face of a possible record yield.

Future Supplies. In an effort to secure for producers the latest indication of market trends, the Dairy Board Instructed its London manager to report upon the immediate position and future prospects. This, information was before the board at its meeting yesterday in the form of a comprehensive cable, summarising) the position as follows “Arrivals of New Zealand cheese, ■ January-March, 37,000 tons. The present extremely cold weather and the prevailing epidemic of influenza, are combiriing to depress the market. The price may go to lower levels, but the hope is entertained that a fair quantity of business will be possible ’at a slightly lower price. If the output of . New Zealand cheese is 85,000 tons, and if the Canadian arrivals equal last year’s figures, it will mean that there will be 8000 tons more than last year available from now onwards. In our opinion, last year’s price was high, and is unlikely to. be repeated, but we axe hopeful that an increasing demand at lower rates may absorb the surplus at a reasonable average price. To-day’s cheese market is slow. In view of the conditions, we recommend that the arrivals for future months be as follows May, 8000 tons; June, 7000 tons; July, 6000 tons; August, 5000 tons; September, 4000 tons.”, r . On considering the London manager's forecast, it was pointed out that his, estimate provided for the expected shipment of a further 30,000 tons over the months mentioned, whereas the estimate of ths board in New Zealand Lor the same period was for only 27,000 tons, and good judges of production held that that might not be realised on account of the nature of the autumn feed, in comparison with the outturn of last season s autumn, particularly in Taranaki, the centre of a big cheese area. The surplus available, therefore, was at least 5000 tons, and not 8000 tons, apart from what might develop in Canada, whose production was last season larger by 6000 tons than preceding years, and might this season revert to her former average. On the estimates as given, however, the board decided to reduce the May arrivals of New Zealand cheese by 1000 tons, and add that quantity to September arrivals. On the revised basis of shipment as determined by the board,. arrivals in London for the five months May to September, will be as follow;:—■May. 7000 tons; June, 7000 tons; July, 6000 tons; August. 4500 tons; September 2500 tons. These figures are contingent upon production being maintained, which is by no means certain ,in relation to cheese, particularly having regard to the attractive nosition of butter, and the possibility of alternative make. The view is held iii some quarters that the' present position of the cheese market is temporary, and that recovery is by no means improbable.

“Unusually Favourable Butter Season.”

In connection with butter, it was reported that an unusually favourable season was being experienced, with the result provisional allocations of shipments as determined in December last, were likely to be exceeded. The butter market was proving unexpectedly sound, and in place of the usual I slump experienced at this period of the year, a very satisfactory level of price was being maintained. Three factors were apparently contributing to this position, the first being a shortage of stocks held in store in the United Kingdom, the second the unusually large diversion of New Zealand butter to Canada to replace heavy sales of Canadian dairy produce to the United States, and thirdly the unusually severe winter now being experienced in Europe, which is likely to have a marked effect upon the forward position. In arranging, shipments of butter in December the board planned the immediate shipment of all produce available up to a certain point, after which a certain amount of regulation to hold back supplies to avoid glutting the market with. New Zealand produce, as usually happens at this period, was determined upon. The unexpectedly favourable position of tthe market, because of the factors mentioned, has made it unnecessary for regulations to operate, and the board yesterday determined Upon further expedition of future make. The course of actual shipments as compared with provisional allotment over ■ the months December to April is revealed in the following table:—-

Production Will Exceed . Earlier , Estimates. The very favourable season experienced this year indicates that the actual production for the season will exceed the earlier estimates .by some 300,000 boxes of butter. .Shipment fortunately has been freely available and in point of actual fact there has so far been no retardation of supplies from New Zealand. The extra space to cope with the situation in March and April is available, and on completion of April shipments there will then remain, it is estimated! only some 350.000 boxes. for shipment over the balance of the season. Actual arrivals of New Zealand butter in the United Kingdom for the immediate future are estimated as follow: February, 375.000 boxes; March, 510,000 boxes; April, 250,000 boxes. Sales by Factories. It was reported to the board that in point of actual fact, better clearances of butter had been effected this season than ever before. One trade factor had 1

Allotment. Boxes. Space bookings . . Boxes. December . 300,000 ■ 280.000 January 300,000 400.000 February .. 280.000 360,000 March .... 220.000 300,000 April .. • • 200,000 250,000