Great Political Issues in Great Britain

Dominion, Volume 22, Issue 116, 9 February 1929, Page 15

Great Political Issues in Great Britain

Signs and Portents of the next General Election

IN the Round Table, under the heading “Election Shadows,” a writer says:— “In the first place, it was by the moderate Liberal vote that Mr. Baldwin’s Government was put into power at the General Election of 1924. Under the electoral system, as we know it, a huge parliamentary majority can be obtained without a clear majority or even with a considerable minority of the votes cast. But apart from this there can be no doubt that many Liberals, in their anxiety to see Mr. MacDonald out of office, decided to support Conservative candidates in the constituencies. “To what extent this tendency actually operated cannot be precisely determined, but the result of the next general election may well turn upon Mr. Baldwin’s ability to retain the support of these Liberals. There is, however, no class of voter which can be so confidently expected to be influenced by considerations which affect the League. “They are just the people who find the Government’s foreign policy x most distasteful and even alarming. The Liberal then who voted Conservative last time, disquieted by .the Geneva failure, restive at the way in which disarmament is hanging fire, puzzled by the apparent hesitancy over the question of the renunciation of war, may be induced by disgust at the AngloFrench proposals to rejoin the ranks of the Opposition parties. Much will doubtless depend upon the courage and dexterity which the Government shows. “A bold and, above all, a frank policy might go far towards dispelling doubts. But much also depends upon the use which is made of these matters on the hustings.. For the first time since the fall of the Coalition Government after Chanak in 1922, the British people as a wjiole has, during the last few weeks, had its thoughts turned to questions of foreign policy, a fact from which a multitude of lessons may be drawn. The discontent of the section of opinion which we have just referred to may find fruitful ground to work upon. “Next, to come to the second factor, the continued depression in the basic, trades and the unemployment problem. While most impartial critics would agree that our difficulties .cannot all be put at the door of any single Government, the average elector is not addicted to nice discrimination. He goes by results; post hoc, propter hoc is the invariable logic of the masses. “Had the situation remained fairly constant, its political effects might be less important. But individual efforts in the direction of better co-ordina-tion have not yet resulted in better financial results —the figures, indeed, are worse than they were in spite of these efforts—and bad trade, together with the necessity of reducing the personnel engaged in the coal trade to a figure which bears some reasonable relation to the economic facts, has had a sensational result on unemployment. Week by week a puzzled public watches a steady and seemingly malicious increase in the figures. Moreover, the state of the depressed areas is so bad as to be a source of serious alarm and even horror to all people of sensibility. " , . “It may be true that no party can supply a quick cure for these diseases, and that, so far as politicians are to blame for our troubles, the honours are widely distributed. But it is upon the Government of the day—and the present one has been in power for just four years—that the responsibility is traditionally placed for anything amiss. The Conservative party may therefore, stand to lose pretty heavily unless the figures show a substantial improvement before the ’election. Their losses will naturally be heaviest in the areas most affected by trade stagnation. “In the actual coalfields, certainly, the Opposition have little to gain, since they already hold most of the mining seats. But Lancashire, the West Riding, the North and Midlands generally may, at the election, all reflect politically the depressed condition of cotton, textiles and iron and -steel. A wide movement of resentment against the Government in these areas might put the Conservatives in a minority. i “Nor can the accusation of a certain complacent inactivity be easily rebutted by the supporters of Mr, Baldwin’s administration. It is true that the wide and almcist revolutionary proposals for rating relief and local government reform may be claimed as an example of progressive policy and constructive foresight. But although when they are better understood and their defects removed the soundness of the underlying principle will no doubt tell in the Government’s favour, the scheme has—from the electoral standpoint—the fatal objection that its benefits are delayed.

“Nor can it be claimed that the relief to industry which will follow de-rating will be more than substantial and important. It cannot be decisive. The details of the proposed local government reorganisation are, moreover, encountering some general and a good deal of bureaucratic opposition from local opinion. Still the scheme has, no doubt, strengthened the Conservatives’ position, and it has supplied them with a reply to the charge that the Government has completely lost its vigour in its latter days. “There is, however, another question to be answered, the charge of having failed to cope with the special problems presented by individual industries. Take the problem of unemployment in the mines, • . . the condition of the iron and steel and cotton industries, the fact that they are still languishing, unable as yet to achieve rationalisation by their own efforts, will also react unfavourably on the prospects of the party in power, unless there is speedy improvement. Whatever there is to be said for or against the principle of laissez faire, the ordinary voter takes the situation as he finds it. For him the proof of the pudding is in the eating. “At the same time, any attempt to abandon laissez faire for protection would, we believe, be attended with the same result as in 1923, and Mr. Baldwin’s attitude towards the pressure put upon him to introduce a general tariff seems to show that he is also of this opinion, though the enigmatical character of his pronouncements on the subject has supplied his opponents with a handle which may be useful-to them on the platform. “If, however, the Government must take the blame for what is amiss, there is something on the other side of the account which may redound to their credit. The peace in industry movement still flourishes. The Trades Union Congress, indeed, endorsed the proposals of the Mond Conference for a National Industrial Council early in September. The employers’ organisations, however, have not even yet, at the moment of writing, come to a decision, and if it should be in the negative, the reaction upon Conservative prospects might be the reverse of favourable. “But, - besides these two special handicaps, there is one of a more general kind. People find a want of character in this Administration. No one quite knows what is stands for or how it will act in a given emergency. If the country feels that the leadership which it looks for in vital matters is subordinated to-the exigencies of keeping the peace between conflicting views inside the Government, it will give it short shift next summer. It would, that is to say—and this brings us to what is possibly Mr. Baldwin's trump card —if people were sure of the alternative. “The expulsion of the Communists and the defeat of their extremist element have, no doubt, abated the old suspicion of Labour. We shall, however, have to wait until the election to see whether enough of it still remains more than to counterbalance the adverse effect of the considerations to which we have already referred on the prospects of the Conservative party. “To sum up, although there is nothing at present to point to the imminence of a Conservative debacle, there is abundant reason for Conservative qualms, and' there is no doubt that the Opposition—certainly its Labour wing—is on the upward grade. What the position will be next summer when the contest takes place will largely depend on what happens between now and then, and to add to the difficulty of speculation there is the unknown quantity of the five million “flappers” who have been added to the roll since the last general election. , “But it must be remembered that if the Conservatives wish to retain the substance of power, it is not enough for them to come back the strongest of the three parties. They must have a clear majority over both their rivals. , Nor can the contingency of the latter joining forces after the election any longer be dismissed as fantastic. Both have now issued programmes, and there is an interesting degree of resemblance between them in important respects. l l. Enough has, moreover, beeh said by representatives of each of the two parties to show that some form of combination might in certain eventualities be considered.

“This article must now be brought to a close, but first an omission must be made good in our estimate of the credit side of the Conservative account. The genial and sympathetic personality of Mr. Baldwin is still an asset of value to his party.”