PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 9, Issue 2580, 30 September 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The second phase of the grand of- . fensive in the Western theatre is. less spectacular but in no way less hopeful than its opening passages. At the moment the progress of tho Allies has slowed down in what have been as yet the main attacking areas. They are, however, still ■ making headway both in Northern Franco and in the Champagne district, and have beaten off enemy counter-at-tacks and improved and. consolidated their newly-won positions. The present state of. affairs may be interpreted as meaning not that the offensive is relaxing, but that the Allies arc marshalling their strength for new efforts, in- the localities against which, they have hitherto concentrated, or elsewhere. It has never been imagined that any single and unbroken effort would succeed to the point of driving the Germans headlong in retreat. The task is one 'of suoli magnitude that under the most favourable circumstances it will require a, series of mighty efforts. The first of the scries has been put forth and has _ been crowned with . suoh magnificent success that the _ victory "■ in tho Champagne is considered worthy to rank with that of the Marne.

A point worth noting is made by the Times military correspondent: that since the Allies, have had many hours in which to consolidate their Viv positions, the chance of a successful German counter-attack ■ is not great. The failure of the Germans to make anything in tlie nature of a successful counter-attack must indeed bo regarded "as a definite indication tha.t they are oppressed by the weight of the Allied offensive. Counter-attacks have been attempted, both in the areas in whioh the Allies have made such important headway and in the Argonne forest, and on the evidence in hand the Germans have failed as completely in one enterprise as in the others. It is encouraging to contrast these ineffective German ef-. forts with the retort made -by the Allies to the last great German offensive in the Western theatre, the poison-gas attack on the Yprcs salient, Though the Germans attacked on a narrow front .with several factors strongly in their, favour, the weight of their assault was quickly reduced and diverted by the Allied offensive in Northern France, which was developed with limited, but definite, success for weeks, and maintained long after the German effort in Flanders had faded into insignificance. : The position now is that the Allies are attacking on a front many times longer than tlie one selcctod by the Germans for their operations in Flanders: there is not yet any Bign of an effective counter-stroke by the enemy, and enterprises of this kind do not permit of delay. A successful counter-stroke becomes less likely with every hour tliat passes leaving the Allies as they were or forging ahead. . • . * # * *

Instead of being hard put to it to defend what they have" won tho Allies are apparently busily preparing for further conquests. It is suggested by/Colonel Repington, tho military correspondent alreadv quoted, that another considerable advance by the British in Nprt-hem France may bo expected when they have captured the commanding heights west of Vimy (a few miles south of Lens) which are now an immediate object of attack. The. nromisc of the situation is that the Germans may soon be dislodged from tjhe secondary, but important, group of railways defended by Lens and, La Basscci' and intervening strongholds and compelled to fall bnck upon the main line which runs south through Lille and Douai, further east, Sucb

news as there is of the fighting in the Champagne also points to a vigorous, though not rapid, prosecution of the attack in that region._ A mere development of the offensive in the areas in which it has so far taken maximum clfccfc does not, of course, exhaust _ possibilities. Decisive success either in Northern France or in the Champagne would mean a great drive «icross the Gorman main communications, but-im-portant as these regions are, the Allies would be making poor use of their opportunities if they allowed Northern France and the Champagne to exclusively absorb their energies. It is quits probable that the next great thrust against the Gorman line may bo made in Alsace, on the Lorraine border, or in some other area well away from those in which the Allies up to the present have struck their strongest and most effective blows.

Positive evidence regarding the superiority of the Allied aeroplanes is to bo found in the. fact that while the great battle was raging in maximum intensity, powerful air squadrons were engaged in bombarding the enemy's lines of communication. Their attacks were made on railway junctions well within the German frontier, and appear to have been made on an ordered plan with comparatively little hindrance from the enemy. German reports have spoken of isolated air combats on the days of the great battle, but later accounts from Paris show that strong air forces were engaged and that extensive damage was done to the enemy's strategic railways and junctions and to the trains passing over tho railways. That attacks of' this kind should be possible is conclusive evidence of the German inferiority in aircraft for the aerial arm, like all others, is'to bo finally , and decisively countered only in its'ow.n clement arid by its own kind.' The advantage they hold in the air is an asset of inestimable value to the Allies, not only as enabling them to attack the enemy's communications in a fashion that may suffice to turn the fate of battles, but as providing them with facilities for reconnaissance and observation which the enemy cannot hppc to match. As a ncccssary consequence the enemy if, at a serious disadvantage where the supremely important factor of surprise is concerried. The relative position' in aircraft being what it is he has, on the one hand, poor prospcets of springing a surprise attack, and on the other, is liable at any timo to be taken unawares. A number of messages have emphasised the apparent failure of the enemy to anticipate the regions of the Allies' main attacks and _ from what is known of the relative strength and efficiency of Gorman and Allied aircraft it is likely that these reports are not overdrawn.

An authoritative, statement, which should tend to bring the Balkan situation to a head, has been made by Sir Edward Grey in the House of Commons. Going to the root of the matter, the Foreign Secretary frankly invites Bulgaria to choose between continued friendship with Great Britain or war. in which Great Britain and her other Allies as well as Serbia- will bear a part. The latter alternative is the promised sequel to a Bulgarian attack' ofl Serbia, an attack which Bulgaria has yet to furnish satisfactory proof she does not meditate. Sir Edward Grey's pronouncement is ono with which no possible fault can be found either upon the highest moral grounds or upon grounds of expediency. It is undoubtedly' true, as he has said, that it has been Britain's policy—it has been that of her principal Allies as well—to secure agreement among the Balkan States, ensuring them a brilliant future; and that the German policy has been to create disunion and war. Some questions arc admittedly open in regard to the equitable partition 1 of Macedonia and other sections of the Balkan territory, but Bulgaria would none the less be guilty , of base treason to her neighbours as well as blind to her own interests if she made these disputes internal to the Balkans a pretext for inviting an'Austro-German invasion whioh would, spell ultimate ruin to all tho Balkan States if it achieved success. A Bulgarian attack on Serbia in order to smooth the way for an AustroGerman invasion would be an infamous crime and a disastrous folly even from the standpoint of purely Balkan interests, and Sib Edward Grey's speech may be counted, amongst other things, an honest effort to savcßulga-na from committing a criminal folly to her own undoing.

Some of the detail items of news published to-day may seem to hold out little hope that Bulgaria will prove amenable to reason. Her action in exporting large stores of provisions to Turkey can hardly bo regarded as a friendly act as matters stand, and a statement by the Serbian Minister in London suggests that Serbia is in momentary expectation of an attack. Nevertheless, there is some r.eason to doubt that Bulgaria would risk attacking her neighbour in existing circumstanccs.It is rather more likely that she is intent upon turning suspicions of herintentions to account by extorting the best possiblo price for her continued'-neutrality or her military aid. The provisioning of Constantinople may seem to afford positive evidence supporting an opposite conclusion, but -this, aiter all, is a small matter to -set against the fact that the Austro-Germans are so heavily involved in the main theatres and the Austrians against Italy, that they seem to have little hope of detaching any considerable force against the Balkans for some time 'to come. Bulgaria is both a warlike little nation and a hard bargainer, and it is probable that her bargaining instinots chiefly hold sway at the present moment.

There is little detail news of tho Eastern campaign at time of writing, and the general position is not shown to be materially altered. The Russians, as for days past,-are resisting powerful German assaults in the bvinsk region, and meantime continue to press their offensive in Galicia. They report to-day the capture of a position north-west of Tarnopol, an area, in which-' they have hitherto made little headway, presumably becausc the enemy forces holding it are operating, in close touch, with a- main railway. The essential and gratifying feature of the position as it stands is that tho Germans arc still heavily involved in the Eastern theatre when- it is vitally important that they should be able to conccntrate the gcoutest possible force on the opposite front. It appears from a number r,f reports that they have already transferred some troops from East to West, but in existing circumstances any considerable reduction of their form; in Russia, would be air'cxtromcly risk" policy. The Gevuw-ns

in fact are involved, and heavily involved, in tho war <?n two fionto, which it has been tho constant aim of their strategy ■ to' avoid. More than that, they must either shoulder additional burdens by undertaking a Balkan offensive or be prepare'! to see heavily increased pressure brought to bear on Turkey—a development which will_ bring them so much nearer to ultimate defeat.