PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 8, Issue 2571, 20 September 1915, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

As is natural at a time when the war appears to be entering a new phase _ and when thoro are obvious possibilities of a surprise move by one or other, perhaps both, of the contending alliances, tho news of the day is mingled with a considerable amount of interesting speculation as to tho turn events are likely to take in the near future. So far as actual military events are concerned the news is not sensational. Pursuing their settled policy during the last week or two, the Russians arc giving ground to some extent in tho Baltic Provinces, and attacking the enemy at tho other end of their line. They are able to report further suc-to-day in Southern Russia and Galicia-. News of the Western front relates chiefly to artillery activity. An official message snows that a period of quiet at the Dardanelles has been broken during tho last day or two by an outbreak of mine-fighting. In this, though they had taken tho initiative, tne Tirf'ks had decidedly the worst of it. No important development is reported in the Austro-Italian campaign, but the Montenegrins report a successful engagement with the Austrians on the Bosnian frontier.

A message from Rotterdam, dealing at large with tho momentous question of what Germany's next move will be, is interesting though of no particular authority, and not more easily accepted because it purports to quote, in part, a German staff .officer in Belgium. In its suggestion that tho Central Empires are embarking upon a now campaign—a suggestion supported by the closing of neutral frontiers and other precautions they aro said to be taking against tho leakage of news—tho Dutch report is possibly dealing with matters of - fact, but it throws no real light upon the allimportant question as to the objective of tho new Austro-German enterprise which it predicts'. The German officer mentioned is quoted as expressing the opinion that the Allies' front in tho Western theatre is impregnable, and it is inferred from this that the new blow" will probably be struck either against Italy or Servia ; The message winds up, however, with a suggestion that n. pretended movement against Italy or Sorvia may prove to be only a feint, intended to divert attention from another attempt to hack through on tho Western front.

The uncertainty manifested in this Dutch message as to what Germany ma.y next attempt is in itself a factor worth noting. It is very possible that it is not confined to outside observers unacquainted with Germany's military intentions, but is shared, in greater or less degree, by the German high command. A general survey of tho position reached in the war suggests as much, though it does not, of course, establish it beyond question. The situation as a whole in the Eastern campaign cannot be regarded as satisfying German _ aspirations. In the Baltic Provinces, it is true, tho invading forces are still making some headway, but with no better ■ reward in immediate prospect than a "further hold on Russian territory, not in itself of vital importance. Much greater importance attaches at the moment to the operations in the southern area, .where tho AustroGermans have been held definitely in check during Ijhe last week or* two, and have been more than once heavily defeated. By this successful- resistance- in Southern Russia and in Galioia, the Russians are barring the routes to the Black Sea railways, which must in all likelihood be regarded as' the supremo objective of tho Austro-Germans in their Eastern offensive. Meantimo it is vitally important to the realisation of German hopes that the Western Allies should bo attacked before they grow any stronger. The same applies to Italy, for whatever may be the position of that country as regards reserves of men and material she is constantly improving her position by gaining a stronger foothold in the Alpine country along her frontiers. Still another problem on the hands of Germany and her ally is that of taking action in the Balkans intended ultimately to. convoy relief to Turkey. *.# * *

Taking only known facts into consideration there is good ground for supposing that tho German General Staff may be distinctly uncertain as to the next move. Russia is practically assured of a breathing-space.' The Western Allies and Italy, as matters stand and have stood for months' past, aro certainly able to improve their position in a fashion which brightens _ their prospects in the ultimate decisive conflict.' The attack on tho Dardanelles is proceeding and there is every reason to suppose that, the area of ground gained on the Gallipoli Peninsula affords no criterion of the extent to which victory has been approached. Apart from their apparent perplexities in Russia, the AustroGermans ai:o thus faced by three problems of extreme urgency, each one of them demanding? attention and action.- Even if they are able to fisht a delaying campaign in Russia postponement of decisive action in any one of the other three war areas is unfavourable to their prospects, and it is perhaps not too optimistic to assume that effective action in all three areas, in addition to a delaying campaign in Russia, is Ipeyond their remaining strength.

The facts of the war are reviewed from a- different angle by Mb. CHURCHir.r. in a speech reported today. He finds some reason for dissatisfaction with tho progress of events during the last five months, briefly on tho grounds that a series of costly attacks by the Allies in the Western theatre, though they gained ground, did not pierce tho German lines; that wliilo invaluable ground has been gained at the Dardanelles no decisive conclusion has been reached in that campaign; and that the invasion of Russia, though that country is rc-arming and recovering her lost strength, unmistakably casts a-n additional burden : upon Great Britain. These Mr. Churchilt, presents as tho elements of a very G'Sriouß Bifcuatiou, and probably no ona will pJWXfiI TTitij Jys .wwioa

that tho war will only bo carried to a successful conclusion if Britain throws her whole strength into the scale. At the' same timo if Mr. Churchill had bcon intent upon a dispassionate survey instead of upon pressing home an appeal for unstinted exertion in the war he might easily havo dealt with matters in a more hopeful strain.

There is no definite, evidence that fcho Western Allies have ever, since the Battle of the Aisne, set themselves to attack the German front in such forco as to warrant the expectation that the outcome would compel a general retreat, and. there is much to suggest the contrary. The idea has been put forward repeatedly and not a few official utterances have gone to support it, that it is tho deliberate policy of t-ho Western Allies to delay the decisive conflict, and that they have shaped their strategy accordingly. Tho attacks mentioned by Mr. Churchill had in overy case a visible object, which in the majority of cases was attained—tho capture of tactical positions, the loss of which weakens the German line) while their possession by tho Allies threatens it. A sound reason for assuming that the Western Allies are very far from having put forth their full strength is that tho new British Army has yet to appear as an activo factor. Some divisions of tho new Army went to fihe front months ago, but even now there is no certain Knowledge as to the proportion of its strength actively engaged.- The extension of tie British front consequent upon increased strength appears, however, to Jiave been a comparatively reoent event, occurring well within the period which- has been marked by an absence of important operations in the Western theatre other than the German attack in tho Argonne, of which the French bore .tho brunt. This is a fairly definite indication that tho new Army has not yet played any very big part in tho Western operations, but whatever tho proportion of its strength actually at the front in the main theatre may be, tho Allies will undoubtedly, have the benefit of a very great accession when tho next great battle is fought in that area.

It might bo objccfccd with' some show of; reason that Mr. Chuechill has taken a somewhat gloomy view of the situation in the Western theatre and in other war .areas as well, but it is without doubt a wise policy on tho part of public men to check any tendency to undue 'optimism which might lead to slackened exertion in the war. Defeat is not tho only danger to be considered. Indeed, as events are shaping, it stands second to the much more serious danger of .an inconclusive peace, which would leave the Germanio allies free- to mako another bid for world domination later on. This point is forcibly emphasised by the Chief Justice of New South Wales (Sib W. P. Oullen) in a speech from which some extracts appear to-day.' Full acquiescence must be given to his contention that it, would be suicidal on the part of the British Empire and its Allies to allow themselves to be deluded into a peace depending for its stability lipon a treaty with nations which havo made it manifest that' with them treaties count for nothing. Evon when they recognise that their last hope of victory in the war has departed, Germany and Austria will fight desperately haid, in the field and by playing- upon public opinion in both neutral and belligerent countries, for such a peace, as Sir' W. P. Oullen rightly condemns. It may bo in breaking down this phase of Austro-German resistance that the fortitude and determination <jf the En tente Powers will bo put most severely to the test.

A definite and detailed contradiction is given to-day to German stories of damago inflicted upon the London docks by Zeppelins which raided the city during the week before last. A very-full account is given of the destruction actually wrought, and it is shown that only private property suffered, most of the buildings struck by bombs being residential. Another salient fact is that only three uniformed men,' two of them policemen, were included in a list of 162 casualties (there were 38 killed) suffered during raids extending over a week. The loss of life and suffering and the damago to property, resulting from these raids are bad enough, but considering the elaborate and costly engines of war by which the havoc is wrought, the Germans have as little causo to be satisfied as to bc_ proud of the exploits of their airships. There are no visible indications of the panic they aim at producing in the civilian population of England, and until they vastly better their pastsperformances the airships will achievo no other result of military importance unless by chance. »■» » #

The latest extension of the German invasion in the Baltic Provinces means, broadly, that they are extending their hold upon the Petrograd railway between Vilna and Dvinsk. Both places are seriously threatened, and the report that, a large part of the official and civilian population of Vilna has withdrawn an indication of coming events. X report crediting General von Bur.ow with a statement that after forcing the River Dwiha, south-east of Riga, he will pass the autumn and winter at Riga, in order to march' upon Petrograd in the spring, must obviously be received with suspicion. If the report is genuine, it has presumably been made with intent to deceive. However, there is no doubt <hat the Germans are making much more rapid progress in the Baltic Provinces than they have made in any other part of the Eastern theatre for weeks. There is a remarkable contrast between the policy of the Russians'in the Baltic Provinces and in Southern Russia and Galicia, where they are either standing firm or taking the offensive. The explanation presumably is that the Russians have massed their strength against the Austro-German assault they deem most formidable—an assault aimed at the Black Sea railways—at some sacrifice in areas they consider less immediately important.

• News wlrieh should imply an early determination of tho attitude of Bulgaria, if it is well founded, is contained in a Router message received in London, by way of New York. It states that tho Entente Powers havo. presented a Note to Bulgaria asking hor to declare between them and tho Central Empires. It is added that the Note is not an ultimatum. A Note of this kind so obviously would amount to an ultimatum that it must be held exceedingly doubtful whether any such demand has been addressed to Bulgaria. Tho only justification for the drastic action attributed to the Entente Powers would be evidence that Bulgaria was plottinK with .CVuhui,Jfrttoires.