The Dominion MONDAY, FEBRUARY 12, 1912. THE BRITISH POLITICAL SITUATION.

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1361, 12 February 1912, Page 6

The Dominion MONDAY, FEBRUARY 12, 1912. THE BRITISH POLITICAL SITUATION.

Although Mr. Churchill's speech at Belfast was intended to be an authoritative statement of the Government's Homo Rule policy, the public is just as far as ever from having a clear idea of the shape of the Bill The only thing that is now clear is that the Bill will propose to give Ireland something like the status of a Canadian province or an Australian State. That, of course, is a thing that can be clearly effected by an Act of Parliament; but Mr. Churchill appears to have left completely unexplained' exactly how draughtsmanship will secure that desirable end upon which he laid most stress, namely, the fair representation of Catholics and Protestants alike in the two Irish Chambers. Mr. Churchill naturally paid some attention to the fear of Ulster that under a Dublin Parliament there would be more than a danger that the Protestant minority would be oppressed, and he sought to dissipate this fear by declaring that "religious oppression would not occur, since th: Crown would have power" to veto or undo any "unjust" [Irish! law or any law that "transgressed" the Home Itulo Bill. Mr. Redmond's cue was to emphasise and anplaud this point, and he did so. But it is not directly discriminating legislation that the Ulster Unionists have been afraid of; what they fear and distrust is the administration of the new Irish Government, of which Mr. Redmond would bo the nominal bead, while in reality being the instrument of such extremists as Mr. John Dillon. It is disappointing not to have been given a hint of the financial basis upon which it is proposed to grant Ireland self-government. To the overseas Dominions the most interesting part of the Belfast speech is that in which it is said that "the Irish Home Rule plan would consistently fit the general scheme of Parliamentary devolution and harmonise with the design of an ultimate Federation of the Empire." No doubt Mr. Churchill would hasten to explain that he referred to "an ultimate Federation of the. Empire" duly as an abstract possibility or as a development too far away for practical politics of the present time to be concerned with. It is when the Bill actually makes its appearance that the Government's serious troubles will begin. The possible course of British politics—wc hesitate to say the probable course—arising out of the Irish problem is sketched by the London Spectator in two careful articles on December 23 and December 30. The Spectator begins by expressing grave doubt whether Mr:. Asqcitii can perform "the well-nigh impossible, task of satisfying the Nationalists and yet producing a 33i1l for which hiwill be able to obtain the ■consent of th?.. country or even of the Liberal party." For the Nationalists do not want Home Rule unless it is made worth thoir while to take it: "It i? I not the case of a colony demanding

separate government, or of Norway asking to be separated from Sweden, and being content to set up housekeeping on her own account, and of paying her own wav as long as she is allowed lo rule herself."' The Nationalist leaders have already declared that ISritain must not only give Ireland self-government, but* make her a financial allowance and pay a big lump sum down. The Spectator thinks that the liritish public will not agree lo such an arrangement, especially when it sees Irish members at Wcsl minster without English members at Duljlin. Mr. Asquint (the argument proceeds) will produce a Hill "acceptable" to the Nationalists and will later have to make concessions to English opinion, with the ultimate result the.t Mr. Redmond "will have to tell his allies that, loath as he is to raise difficulties, he cannot ask bis followers to vote for the Bill in its amended form until it has been submitted to an Irish National Convention." The Convention will be pretty sure to reject such a measure, and the Bill will be withdrawn, the Nationalist party in the House of Commons at the same moment ceasing to be in alliance with the Liberals. The Spectator suggests that the Government would then make overtures to the Opposition for a settlement of the big question of suffrage and representation prior to an agreed dissolution in January next. But even if the Home Rule Bill got through the Commons in a shape acceptable to the Nationalists, the Liberals will have to face "that great obstacle of their own creating, the establishment of universal suffrage and redistribution." In the meantime tho woman suffrage question; which has already split the Cabinet, may wreck the party, and the Insurance Act is still operating to the detriment of the Liberals, as every by-election shows. And what is the case of the Opposition ? Is its position as strong as the. Government's is manifestly weak? Tho Spectator is afraid not: "As things stand, there is in the eyes of a great body of the electors a strong obstacle to the replacing of a Home Rule Government by the Unionists. That obstacle is the taxation of food." Great numbers of peonlc who cherish the Union and hate the recklessness and extravagance of the Liberals will not support the foodtnxers. How is the Unionist party to keep its supporters with it, and win back the Free-trade section of them? "The obvious way to accomnlish this would of course be for Mn. Bonat. Law and his colleagues in the Unionist leadership frankly to dron food taxes and to say that though they maintain their policy of Tariff Reform in other respects they mean to keep bread, mcit, milk and cheese on the free list." But this is an.impossible conccs.-ion for the food-taxers to make. Is there no' other way? There, is one, namely, the revival and adoption by the Unionist party of Mr.. Balkouh's pledge, given in December, 1910, that food taxes should not be imposed upon the country without a referendum being first taken, either by a general election or by nn ad hoc poll. The Spectator has little hope th?fc this course will be adopt?d, and so, while expectin" the Unionists to increase in strength at the. next election, it does not anti cinate that it can do more thai ]ust secure a majority, so that it will have tolive by concessions to the Nationalists and to the Labour party. "A Government of U\is kind nwy pick up a precarious living for a year or two but it cn.vi hardly expect more, and then will _ come a general election fraught with extreme dancrer for the country." The. outlook for neither part-', therefore- is what any party would hope for: and stirring times are ahead, with any sort of chaos at the end.