THE UNITED STATES PRESIDENCY.

Dominion, Volume 5, Issue 1356, 6 February 1912, Page 7

THE UNITED STATES PRESIDENCY.

— $■ PROSPECTS OF MR. ROOSEVELT. (By A. Maurice l.<nv. in the "Morning J'.i.-t."). Washington, Dc.cinber I. Hii.s Mr. IJ.uwvcil liivd of tin-seclusion ol' private I j IV". liuil 'iI.K'S In , ltiiiu aifiii" •" occupy the centre of tin- .-liiße? Ih » word, is In-a. eandkkiie for Hie Uopubliean nomination fur the I'ri'-iitU'iicy next YCiir? Some (if liis zealous ami injudicious friends are trying to force him t<> U- •'> candidate. Some men who would scarcely bo called his friend* are lendiii}, , thejr help to the movement. Mr. lioo.-ovelt's friends are sincere, but foolish; Mr. lioosevelt's enemies are cunning, but wise.. Tho friendship of his I'riemls is no <U)(ibt as lo Hip ex-President as the enmity of his enemies. .Any man who is a friend of .Mr. Roosevelt is necessarily an enemy of President Taft, for coudiiidiis have Income so acute in the Republican party that fealty to one man is the proof of antagonism to the oilier. It is impossible for anyone to he on terms of amity with both. Jl r. Jioosevell lios frankly shown his dislike and disapproval of Mr. Tuft; the latter, compelled by his Irish .official position to be more guard'.".! in his utterances and temperamentally and by trainiiij? having himself under bettor control, lias given no public indication of liis foelinjis, but wlnit he really thinks is well known to those privileged to share his confidence. Jlr. Jioosevelt hopes to see 3Fr. Tall either defeated for Hie renominotion next year, or, if he is renominated, to see liim defeated at tho polls. Mr. Taft knows this, and naturally he has no warm feeifii;? of tmiKliliip or gratitude for lii? predecessor. "Die deio.it of Jlr. Toft next year, either in the ( :m----vontion or at the polls, but preferably the latter, would, Jlr. lioosevelt thinks, remove from his path 0 formidable, obstacle to his return to the White. House five years hence. It is not 1»I'J, but lillli, on which Air. Roosevelt has his eye= fixed.

Reasons for Nomination. Mr. ttooscvelt's friend.- would like to bring about his nomination for I wo reasons. First; they arc loyal t<) him. and are sincere in wanting to see him restored to the head of affairs; secondly, they so thoroughly detest 3!r. Taft that they would do nnythini to enniims 1 . his ruinIt it difficult to determine which is the controlling motive—devotion to 3fr. Uoosovclt or detestation of .Mr. Taft. for men are seldom iiiiliU'iiewl by n single motive—but it is cerliiin that the bit lor hostility they have for Mr. Taft is one of the main reasons why they are tryin? to induce Mr. Roosevelt' to become a candidate. These friends nf Mr. Uoosovelt nii-I enomies of Mr. Taft believe that the only way to defeat 11 r.'Tuffs renomination is to oppose hint with 3lr. Jioo.-e----velt, for they Imve carefully gone over tho p-onnd, and.ore convinced that no one else except 11 r. Honsovelt can prevent llr. Taft'.s. nomination- This conclusion is no doubt sound. II i< dillicult to-see lion' llr, Taft ran bp defeated for renoniination, it is not ca=y to understand hov; Mr. lioosevelt can prevent it, but that is the theory on which the Ttoosevelt partisans, win are always the Taft opponents, arc working. Methods of Politicians. A (treat, deal has been said and written about the .American politician; the "boss" who manipulates Stale Conventions and the "manager" who "runs" ,i 'Ntttionnl Convention, until it has come to be believed' that the American nolit'icinu is a man of extraordinary astuteness and ability, and has developed, in the process of evolution, a sort of specialised sixth sense of politics. The nvorngo man regards the technique of politics very, much,..as lieiloc?. tlic esoteric mysteries; and "the. "boss" or "manager" as their hi<;li priest. A somewhat extensive a>|uaint:incK and more or l< ss intimacy with politicians of hiph and loir decree have robbi'il mo of that veneration which the outsider feels. As u matter of feet, the ordinary average American politician, the man who conducts » campaign or any nart of it, is seldoin. if ever, a hum of nigh intellect mil ability, groat capacity, or muoli originality; he is usually a matter of fact person, without imagination— and imagination lies at the heart of all iireatnes-s—and ho is-more distinguished for his timidity than his courage. There are, and have been, oxcopljons, of course, but 1 am taking the politician as a type and a class, the sort of mini who is popularly supposed to make Presidents and win elections. In America the methods of politicians . have become stereotyped, Hie rtil<>< of the game ore so rigid that .it .'has ■ become ridiculously easy for a player to calculate on an opponent's tactic?. If a politician out nf I ho ordinary developed ho \tould confound his antagonists by making a perfectly simple but. Unexpected move, but that is never done, and the only mystery to an outsider is Why politicians are so ieel,lo-initided as not to be able to see the play long bcfure the pic-es arc moved. This year the game is being played as it always has been. Xo one thinks it necessary to invent a new pamhit, but (lie layman is as nsucl mystified and confused. Tho method that custom has sanctioned is easily mastered. When there is opposition to a candidate, but whose strength is greatly superior (o that of his nnnnn--I'iit's, iho approved plan is to break him down by briii'in? in other candidates, each of whom raii'detach some purfkm at least of the leading candidate's forces. That is the purpose, of bringing out Mr. Itoosevelt. He is to be used os a battering ram against Mr. Taft. Having breached the walls of the Taft fortress and forced it to capitulate, Mr. Roosevelt is to be able to dictate terms of surrender—the transfer of the Taft forces to his own standard and the proclamation of hiim-plf as tho leader. The Progressive Candidate, To b? successful, Mr. Koosevelt must be sure of two things; first, that he can fake away enough delegates fi-cin Mr. Taft lo drive him off the field, and then that .the men who formerly were plexlgcd to \[r. Taft will bn willing to serve under his conqueror. Xoithor, of course, is certain, and of the Iwp the .latter is the most uncertain. T'lemon who rn-e standing by Mr. Taft f-o thoroughly dislike Mr. Mocsevelt that it is almost inconceivable they would accept him in any circumstances or do anything to nrnlw him President again; anyone else rather than him. It.is here that the ambition of another man comes into play. Mention has already been made in I his correspondence of Senator Ln Vollettp, of Wisconsin, the candidate, of Hie Progressives for tho Presidency. Mr. La Follotte is conducting a very vigorous campaign in his own behalf, anil as the only jif-iificntiau for his candiilncv are the transgressions nf Mr. Taft. it U iiCTinst the President that Mr. I,a Vollette'is directing his (ire. Mr. t.a l"ol!el(e naturally welcomed the suggestion of Mr. Kott-oynlf a< ;i candidate for it created u diversion, and the more candidates the mote complications and Iho harder Mr. TafS l>us to fighf. Mr. 1;\ l-'.illetlß nn<l his frieiiiN ivi.iilil like to >:ep Mr. Ik'OsovcH inalie Mr. Tuft's nomination impossible, and Mr. Tafi's adheronls vow nover to suri-eiider. Then there would be a deadlock out of which would come Mr. Ln. Tolledp> profit. the Hon.'evelt 'ltipn refuse to hike Mr. Tuft and (he. Taft. men. will not lisfenlo the mention of lioosevclfs lUHue, a. conipromi.-fl is inevitoblc.. 15olh fnctions,' Mr. T.a I'ollelfe thinks, will concentrate ui»n him as Ihp compromise, and the Ttenublipsin candidate for the Presidency will be (lie .Senator from Wi.-consiu. And why nul ? The same thin? bns happened before. The li-idiii" cnndi<lnl.o= have killed each oilier off and the dark hor-e has galloped away villi the prize. History may reiwat itself as it: libs a habit of doing, bnl I'M in Ihe year 1912 at Hip Kcpublictlt .National Conventidii. Mr. Roosevelt's Enemies. 11 Wiistiiid lh:i( Mr. Koo-cvr-IIV eu-iiiie* ivoiiM lie (,'lad In -iv him nomiiialcil. Mr. ,I,'oiKevelt's enemies •>re viminnis, foneful, and-nianv.. They wnnld like to -.pi- him ,nnmiu:vled b-oau-i- '.hey ;irc convinced he would 1>- liadlv I:*ii!pii. He v.-onlil -uffiT :> >li-fcnt, thfy -;,v. ; ,s cni-liiiiL' a< thai a.l-mini-lcred bv Mr. M'Kinley lo Mr. lirvan in l!K)0. which w.-is a Democratic rout. Thai would end Mr. Ilcfl-rvell. and iniIhiii" would give gr,;,lcr delight lo Mr. ll.'iosi.volfs eiioiiiie- than U< *; his career ntii-lu-d so injuriously. Mr. Iti.nscvplfs opponent* may be wrtMig in Hicir c.ilciiImlkiii*. but IIiPV have innfidenrc mougli in I hoii judgment In he willing lo the tc-t. They say I hey know well enough what ihoV-uil would be. and, ir Mr. .Kocwcu-cll. will lin -,n acwunindntiUK jis lo offw himself aa the 6acrifi.Qo they, will

gleefully furnish tlip nltar nnd (he fuel. Mr. Koow.vrll knows (his ius well a.-- any"iif 'if. In imlitiiv, there is- cer-liiin-cM-cpl Hi,. vutiiiK, mill, while no one (il (Mini--!' iv.ni say with oonfidiMice how Iliv ili-cMoii ol (In. Imttli- of the ballots will be il.'cidi'il in*l year, (lie |,V'tHil)li»nis have iu:idi' up (heir minds thev are in fnr defeat, and are prepared u> sici'cpt (lii'ir revere willi us inucli pliilo-ophy as Ilii-.v can tommtiiid. Thai lieing the rase, wilh llu- i-|i:ii,|.,. s more than even, lo put it ('(inservalively, iijtaiii-1 the liipublicaiis, it would In. folly for Mr. lioiwvelt to jjo ■•ml of hi, way "to lead a forlorn hope. Should he lie nominated, and .should he ho drtealeil next year, it would cm! him fiir all Him'. A Ki'inl iiianv people think dial Jlr. Kcnwelt is ended'miy way, and "nil- il is nlisurd to talk aliciil his ever cumins; bad; lo Ihc J'nvidenev. Mr. lion.-evelt evidently doe* not share that view, and still believes in his star. If his luck has not deserted him, (hen l'Jlli, and not next year, will be (he test; meanwhile nothing would jpvo him greater eneouriiffMiieiit than the dofoat uf the Kepublican candidate next year and the election 0/ a .Democrat. Benefits of Opposition. -Americans aro singularly wedded to their traditions in politics. It lias become a tradition that flic Democrats are incapable of administering the affaire of the country successfully, and that when by an oil' chance they Ret; into power tho succeeding election is sure to ro against them Jxtcause of Hieir incapacity; and it must be admitted that since the Civil AVar there lias been ample justification for this Iwlief. . For (his reason a great many Republicans think that Democratic success next year would not bo an tininixed evil; it would restore party discipline; four years spent in weary wandering anions Iho potsherds and Hints of opposition wotild be a lesion not shon forgotten; defeat develops qualities of leadership, for it is 11 areat deal easier to command a majority than it is successfully to lead a minority. The Republican (.'onswvatives believe Hint after four years of Democratic Radicalism—fur it* is conceded that the only chance for Democratic success is with a Radical candidate, who will, of course, Rive encouragement to the Radical rather than the. Conservative wing of his own parly—the natural reaction will follow, that Radicalism will be out of favour, and the Conservatives will once again bo able to shape party action. Jfr. Roosevelt does not think so. He believes that the country lias definitely committed itself, to the'"Progressive." policy, and will lake no sten backward, but he hopes before ho is five years older to l>e able to convince the country that he is progressive, enough for Hie Progressives, and yet not too radical to frighten the Conservatives. Ho has authorised the announcement that he will not support Jfr. Taft for renomination, nor will he champion, the cause of any other candidate. He will defeat Jfr. Taft if he can, and Mr. Taft's defeat means the ififent of the Republican party next year. Uncertain as politics arc, aboiir that there is no uncertainty. The Republicans must either rennminate Jir. Taft: nnd mnUo the best fight they can. or depo.-e Air. Taft and invite the inevitable disaster.

Messrs. Pyrin and Co., Guinness ami to Oron, Ltd.,'ami Wright. Stephensun, ami Co., Ltd., acting; as joiitt-auctiotipcrs. advertise in this issue an important- ."ale of stud stock. 'Dip sale will 1)? held at tturnside, near Oanuvru, on Tuesday, February 2'.\ at 10.H0-a.m. The sheep coinlir;<D a number of Border Leicester* and Lincoln.*, both stud ewes and rams. 1 here will also be offered 15 purebred Clydesdale marcs, 3 years old and over, all registered in the New Zealand Draught Horse .Stud Book.