East Germans go west

Press, 6 September 1989, Page 20

East Germans go west

As West Germany prepares to receive thousands of East German refugees it is showing signs of alarm. It is asking whether there is an end in sight to this movement of people. One hundred and twenty thousand refugees are expected this year, more than a 30 per cent increase from the 90,000 expected a mere month ago. There is speculation that two million people might want to leave East Germany; in the short term the Bonn Government has warned West Germany’s 11 states to prepare for 15,000.

East Germans have long tried to leave to settle in West Germany or elsewhere in the West. Since the Berlin Wall this has involved hazardous escapes, but recently other exits have opened up. One of the easiest has been through Hungary. As East Germans do not require visas to visit that country and as Hungary has dismantled the barbed wire fences separating it from Austria, East Germans can continue into Austria and pick up the West German passports automatically made available to them. Crossing from Hungary into Austria is illegal, but the practice is tolerated. If the refugees are caught they are warned; if they get caught twice their travel documents are stamped to say that they have been ordered out of Hungary.

The route through Hungary is not the only way out. East Germans have been cramming into West German embassies in Budapest, Prague, and East Berlin seeking asylum. Also, East Germany asked its citizens who wanted to emigrate to apply; about a million applications were received. East Germany has withdrawn orders to shoot at people trying to escape.

The West German Government is putting on a brave face. It has, nevertheless, suggested to Mr Erich Honecker, the leader of East Germany, that he take steps to improve life and thus relieve the pressure to emigrate. Few believe Mr Honecker will act on this advice. The inflow is coming at a time of a demand for labour in West Germany; in spite of an unemployment rate of 8 per cent, the construction industry needs labour. However, although the West German Government might be officially cheerful, the public reaction of West Germans is being watched with nervousness by politicians. The influx of East Germans is putting even greater pressure on housing and jobs. A rise in support for Far Right parties in West

Germany has been partly attributed to the increase in immigration. The emigration from East Germany and the reforms in Eastern Europe have given rise to renewed thoughts about the reunification of the two Germanys. Such thoughts have been entertained since Germany was divided after World War II but political rhetoric has helped obscure the issue until now. Germans were not prepared to renounce the possibility that the Germanys would one day be reunited: the flame of hope was kept alive. Other Western countries generally soothingly agreed with these sentiments and deplored the existence of fenced borders and the Berlin Wall. Yet there has been a reluctance on the part of many countries, particularly those in Western Europe, to advance the cause of a united Germany.

Now the possiblity of reunification is greater than it has been and the difference between rhetoric and reality is likely to be spelled out. If the two Germanys did combine, and East Germans were as productive as West Germans, the gross domestic product of the united State would be one and a half times that of France, and the Armed Forces would number 660,000. This would make the new Germany by far the largest military power in Western Europe. In military terms a united Germany would be about twice the size of Britain. It would be a very large and probably assertive power.

The position was recently summed up best by Mr Honecker — of all people — who said: “The reality is the existence of two German States with two different social systems, States which belong to two different alliances. You cannot mix fire and water. A Greater Germany, in terms of history, only existed for a short period of time. The Holy Roman Empire of German nations went asunder in the battle of Jena and Auerstedt, and Hitler’s German Reich was crushed by the blows of the anti-Hitler coalition. Nobody could have an interest in having a State again in the heart of Europe that would be difficult to keep under control.”

These are words unwelcome to West German ears because the dream of a united Germany is precious. Yet the retention of divided though peacefully co-operating Germanys is likely to be seen as in the interests of all other Europeans. But ultimately it will be the Soviet Union that will determine whether Germany is united.