National win led by Bolger forecast

Press, 27 June 1989, Page 2

National win led by Bolger forecast

By

OLIVER RIDDELL

in Wellington

The Parliamentary Press Gallery believes the National Party, led by Mr Jim Bolger, will win the 1990 General Election. This emerged from a survey done by Victoria University of 30 journalists working in Parliament, of whom 24 responded. The respondents were described in the survey as “New Zealand’s most influential , commentators, political journalists.” Some 75 per cent of respondents expected National to win, 16:5 per cent expected Labour, and 8.5 per cent expressed no opinion. Only 4 per cent did not expect the Prime Minister, Mr Lange, to lead Labour. They supported the Minister of External Relations and Trade, Mr Moore.

Mr Bolger was expected to lead National by 79 per cent, with 17 per cent picking Mr Winston

Peters and 4 per cent picking Mr Doug Graham (Remuera). Mr Jim Anderton was expected to hold his Sydenham electorate for the New Labour Party, with some picking Mana Motuhake to take Northern Maori from Labour’s Dr Bruce Gregory. The average expectation was that National would win 53 seats,

Labour 43 and the New Labour Party one. The economy was seen as the most important issue by 46 per cent with race relations picked by 21 per cent, unemployment 16.5 per cent and leadership 12.5 per cent. Race relations was identified as the second most important issue by 38 per cent.

A majority 79 per cent, did not expect the former Minister of Finance, Mr Roger Douglas, would be back in the pre-election Cabinet, while 71 per cent thought the former Minister of State-Owned Enterprises, Mr . Richard Prebble, would not. The gap between the parties in the public opinion polls was expected to close by the end of the year to less than half its present margin, with still 10 months to go to the scheduled election.

Estimates of registered unemployed by the end of the year ranged from 130,000 to 200,000.