THE PRESS THURSDAY, APRIL 13, 1989. Higher hope for Kampuchea

Press, 13 April 1989, Page 12

THE PRESS THURSDAY, APRIL 13, 1989. Higher hope for Kampuchea

The withdrawal of Vietnamese troops from Kampuchea has been discussed seriously for months and some troops have been \ withdrawn. A definite date, at the end of September, for the last troops to leave has now been set. The presence of Vietnamese troops in Kampuchea for a decade has warped relationships throughout the whole Asian region and their final withdrawal should enable the South-East Asian countries to have more sensible relations, to co-operate more, and to develop trade. Beyond SouthEast Asia the rivalries of the Soviet Union and China should be less intense. There is a chance, which may be viewed as optimistic but not totally unreal, that an era of peace and rapid economic growth could be enjoyed. A host of problems will remain, not least of which is the possibility that Vietnam will not in fact withdraw its troops. A few accounts are circulating that some of the troops who are supposed to have been withdrawn already have merely changed uniforms. Suspicion of Vietnam among SouthEast Asian nations is still strong. They will watch very carefully to make sure that Vietnam does as Vietnam says it will do. If there is reason to believe that Vietnam is attempting to deceive its neighbours, attitudes towards Vietnam, never soft, will harden again and the stalemate of the last few years will continue.

The biggest issue, which amounts to a moral issue for the whole world, and particularly so for the countries of Asia and the Pacific, is who will hold the power in Kampuchea after the Vietnamese go. It is expected that some form of coalition will be formed among the factions which have resisted the Vietnamese and official Phnom Penh forces, and the official Government of Kampuchea. The dilemma is that the most powerful of the factions which have opposed the Vietnam-based Government is the Khmer Rouge, who savagely killed so many of their own people during the years after the United States left Vietnam and before the Vietnamese invasion of Kampuchea. In later years, the Khmer Rouge tried to clean up its image and some of its leaders have reluctantly admitted that there may have been excesses in their time of Government. The Khmer Rouge even declared that it was no longer Communist. However, its organisation remained the same; and although it modified its behaviour there has not been a sufficient break from the past to enable anyone to feel confident. Pol Pot is no longer in the forefront of its activities but is reported to be still directing its activities. The moral and technical issue is how to prevent circumstances in which the group that savaged its own people is somehow returned to power under the man who permitted it all to happen in the first place. Any new Government in Kampuchea is almost sure to be led, at least in name, by Prince Norodom Sihanouk, formerly the ruler of Cambodia, as Kampuchea was then known. For a number of years Prince Sihanouk has headed a coalition which has included his own forces, another group led by Mr Son Sann, and the Khmer Rouge. Now that a date has been announced for the Vietnamese to be out of the country, the jockeying for power within Kampuchea will begin in earnest. A Reuter report says that Vietnamese and Kampuchean officials are convinced that, if Prince Sihanouk is to return to Kampuchea, he must turn against the Khmer Rouge and strike a deal with the Phnom Penh Government.

Prince Sihanouk has been agile in his alliances in the past and nothing should be ruled out completely. However, in a conversation with the New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr Marshall, within the last few days, Prince Sihanouk argued that the Khmer Rouge had remained a strong force even when the full might of the

Vietnamese and official Phnom Penh Government forces were turned against it. It could be expected to be an even bigger problem if the forces on the other side were weaker. He considered that it was therefore better to have the Khmer Rouge embraced in any Government, rather than opposed to it. Prince Sihanouk’s argument is telling and, unless something major has made him change his mind, it is unlikely that he would deliberately risk making the Khmer Rouge feel that its only way to a share in power was through fighting. New Zealand is likely to be, and should be, involved in the -future of Kampuchea. Whatever the shape of the Government in Kampuchea after September, the risks of savagery, of cheating, and of minor incidents plunging the whole country into a new civil war will remain. There is wide international agreement that there will need to be a peacekeeping force. New Zealand may be asked to be one of the contributing nations to any peace-keeping force. Japan has offered money to help support such a force. Any peace-keeping commitment is likely to be long-term. The region is of the utmost importance to New Zealand and preventing any recurrence of the Khmer Rouge, atrocities would be an honourable task for New Zealand.

A resolution in Kampuchea would make it easier to solve another dreadful problem in Asia, that of refugees from Vietnam. The harsh political and economic conditions of Vietnam have been forcing many people to flee. Many of those fleeing recently are not considered political refugees, but economic refugees seeking a better life for themselves in other countries. Much of the world’s enthusiasm about taking refugees from SouthEast Asia has disappeared. Mr Marshall, who discussed this issue in Asia as well, found that much of the talk there was about involuntary repatriation; in other words, sending some of the refugees back to Vietnam whether they wanted to go or not. In recent publications from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees repatriation is widely discussed, though the discussion appears mainly to be voluntary repatriation. There is also discussion about monetary assistance to the countries to which the refugees will be returned. “The Economist” recently suggested that the countries of origin could be paid a certain amount for every refugee they take back. These are drastic solutions to dreadful problems.

Hong Kong is likely to be the first country to take action. Between 1975 and 1987, 111,112 Vietnamese landed in Hong Kong. Most were resettled in other countries but, last September, 25,128 Vietnamese were still in Hong Kong awaiting resettlement. In the first eight months of 1988, 17,000 people arrived. Hong Kong has entered discussions with Vietnam about taking people back. Hong Kong is under a particular time constraint to deal with the refugee problem because it will revert to China’s sovereignty and China has already made it plain that it will deal with the refugee problem in a tough way. If the Kampuchean situation is resolved, Vietnam will be better off in two main ways. In the first place, it will not have the strain on its economy to keep a war going in Kampuchea. Equally important will be the fact that it will be accepted by other SouthEast Asian countries as a trading partner and will stand some chance of sharing in the economic growth which much of South-East Asia has enjoyed. This might make Vietnam more prosperous and should encourage Vietnamese to remain in their own country. South-East Asia’s huge problems will not be cured after September, but, if the Vietnamese leave Kampuchea as they have said they will, an important step will have been taken towards a cure.