THE PRESS WEDNESDAY, APRIL 5, 1989. New Zealand emigrants

Press, 5 April 1989, Page 18

THE PRESS WEDNESDAY, APRIL 5, 1989. New Zealand emigrants

Economists referred to in a recent New Zealand Press Association article who apparently believe that the Commonwealth Games and the America’s Cup will lift the sagging spirits of New Zealanders and halt or even reverse the outflow of New Zealanders to Australia are expressing an interesting opinion. Whether an economist is better able to measure what, makes up national pride, or self-confidence, or national pessimism than anyone else is debatable. What they are saying, however, may be reasonable. There was certainly a strong surge of nationalism and self-confidence at the time of the America’s Cup races in Perth. But much has happened since the summer of 1986-1987, including the sharemarket crash of late 1987, and it is not at all obvious that the euphoria can be revived in the next year or two. The comments came after the release of Statistics Department figures which showed that more people had left New Zealand to live overseas in the year to February than in any of the last nine years. In the 12 months to February this year, 70,897 people left New Zealand as permanent or long-term migrants. This compared with 46,283 who came to live in New Zealand as permanent or long-term migrants. This meant a loss of 24,604. The last time that figure was exceeded was in 1980, when 77,612 people left New Zealand as long-term migrants and 40,980 arrived, making a loss of 36,632. In the intervening years, New Zealand gained more permanent or long-term migrants than it lost only in 1983 (1634) and 1984 (7669). In 1985 the loss was 6524; it climbed to 20,803 in 1986; in 1987 the loss was 15,737; and last year it was 14,007. It is hard to find evidence in these figures for the view that a rerun of early 1987 would stop an outflow of population. The figures are for the year that ends in February. The last America’s Cup race was at the beginning of February, 1987, and the migration loss that year exceeded 15,000. So faith in that sporting event to reverse the inclination of New Zealanders to leave the country for a long time or for good may not be well placed. According to the Statistics Department figures, until the end of January, 1989, 45,154 people headed to Australia as permanent or long-term residents. This compares with 36,227 for the previous year, out of a total of 60,843 total permanent and long-term departures. This is a substantial number of people emigrating to Australia, and the New Zealand-born population of Australia probably now exceeds 250,000. Only a limited amount of research has been done on why New Zealanders emigrate to Australia. There is a pattern that in times of an economic downturn in New Zealand, emigration to Australia rises. In the distant past, when the Australian economy was in the doldrums and New Zealand’s was not, the migration flow was reversed. However, it has been fairly steady in the one direction for the last few years. In the year to January of 1989, 11,451 people came to New Zealand as permanent or long-term residents from Australia, and in the year to January of 1988 14,394 people came to New Zealand from Australia. The migration flows might include Australians or New Zealanders returning home.

A number of those who left in recent years have retired from work and headed for the Gold Coast The lifestyle there has its attractions. Some have left New Zealand for social reasons, including worries about racial problems. The high value of the New Zealand dollar compared with the Australian dollar may have enabled a number of retired people to sell their houses in New Zealand during the property boom and to replace them 'with similar houses in Queensland. When the states publish their migration figures it may be easier to find out more about the migratory behaviour of New Zealanders.

Many young New Zealanders go to Australia to earn money for travel beyond Australia. Unemployment is high in Australia but the bigger economy generates more opportunities. It would be difficult to hold down two or three jobs, even if they were available, in many parts of New Zealand and save substantial amounts of money. It is easier to do so in Australia.

Australia has constructed a profile of the New Zealanders in the Australian community. They are generally highly mobile, highly skilled, and young. The latest figures from the Statistics Department on the permanent and long-term departures for Australia cover only the three months to the end of December. By far the biggest group are those who described themselves as not actively engaged. These include children under 15, retired people, and housewives. The large number does not establish that many unskilled or unemployed New Zealanders are migrating to Australia. The statistics are based on the answers to questions about occupation. An unemployed architect or engineer is still likely to describe himself or herself as an “architect” or “engineer” rather than as being “not actively engaged.” The next biggest group, at 506, is of clerical or related workers. In that three months 250 medical, dental, veterinary and related workers migrated to Australia, as did 274 sales workers and shop assistants, 359 bricklayers, carpenters, and construction workers, and 372 people who described themselves as managers. The indications are fairly strong that New Zealand’s loss in skills is Australia’s gain. The agreement between New Zealand and Australia that enables the peoples of both countries to migrate freely to the other was established in 1920 and is known as the Trans-Tasman Travel Arrangements. It is the intention of both the New Zealand and Australian Governments to create a single market between New Zealand and Australia. Part of such an intention is a free flow of peoples and a common labour market. As Mr Jacques Poot, one of New Zealand’s foremost scholars on migration economics commented, “For a lot of New Zealanders, a move across the Tasman is not much different to a move from Canterbury to Auckland. They see it as an Australasian labour market.” Many New Zealanders, pondering the loss of skills, might wonder about the future of New Zealand and whether it will take even more than the America’s Cup and the Commonwealth Games to bring the skills back into New Zealand.