Lange looks back over difficult year

Press, 16 August 1988, Page 15

Lange looks back over difficult year

By

ANDREW BEACH

of NZPA in Wellington

One year ago yesterday the Prime Minister, Mr Lange, led his Government to an emphatic election victory, with voters apparently signalling the painful economic restructuring had their blessing. In return, Mr Lange promised the nation a renewed emphasis on social policy. A year later, with unemployment skyrocketing, the Labour Party in open revolt, trailing in the polls and with question marks hanging over his own health, Mr Lange admitted it had been a ‘‘hard year.”

“I think it’s been a difficult year for people, as well as the Government,” he said. Although public concerns had been mounting before October’s sharemarket crash, Mr Lange said the stock slump had caused a “major change in the way in which people perceive their security and everything else.”

Also, the “really heavy focus on land claims and the like has tended to either provide reinforcements for deeply held prejudice or insecurity.”

“We have not had a World Cup or an America’s Cup or anything by way of relief from the inexorable grind of actually making the adjustments to change,” he said.

Mr Lange said it was ironic that, with the exception of unemployment, the indicators in technical terms were all better.

"So that you have got the irony that if you look back on the last year you have got interest rates that are probably 5 per cent down in retail terms from what they were a year ago; you have got inflation practically nonexistent; you have got a balance of trade markedly better. “You have got all these things which turn out in people’s minds to be abstract as long as there is uncertainty about their future or major lifestyle change by means of loss of employment or something else,” he said. Although the last year had been one of adversity, it was “by no means necessarily debilitating electorally, because the clear message of their year is that we constantly

have to reassess the capacity of people to endure change, the pace thereof and keep reassessing now what our political and social goals are,” said the Prime Minister. “What we do know is that we have learned to keep our heads, we learned that in the Timaru by-election, and we do not actually surrender to polls.”

The Government had taken a pounding in the polls over the last year, ironically as it was almost completely unattributable to the Opposition.

“It was attributable probably to ourselves and the general sort of feeling about the place.”

The Government had started moved upwards in the polls in a fairly consistent manner, “but we have got still a substantial deficit.”

“But once again, of course, that is not the final position — we’ve got a huge volume of do not know,s one in four who are just waiting there to crystalise. We know that most of those one in four are people who have voted for us and would again if they had confidence and conviction about us,” said Mr Lange. “On the face of it, it looks a bit funny (but it) is actually quite reinforcing of the view that you can win in 1990. “But it has been a hard year.” Mr Lange compared the public’s difficulty in accepting or understanding all of the Government’s policies with “the capacity of the ground to absorb more.”

“I was caught in a flash flood once years ago in the Wanganui River. The river rose 21 feet in 14 minutes according to records and I was swept off and landed in a poplar tree.

■ “There is a very strange explanation for a flash flood — it had been raining for a couple of days and all of a sudden the land decided it is not going to absorb any more water, and then chuu, it just goes down the hills and it is off,” he said. “That to a certain extent is where we have reached with change. “I think that yo have got rational explanations being tendered, politically sound explanations being tendered but there comes a point when the capacity

to absorb it is not as it was before.

“And that is something which the Government had to take account of in the next couple of years as well,” said Mr Lange.

“Governments can not actually dictate how people feel but people can dictate to governments how they feel by the way they vote.” Mr Lange said while high unemployment levels did not necessarily mean the electoral ground would not absorb any more water and vote the Government out, it did mean that “this Government has the capacity to feel bad about itself, which actually affects performance.” “Unemployment actually affects the Government — whoever unemployment affects, it affected the unemployed, then it affects the Government members next, in terms of being hurt. It certainly affects me in terms of that.” A television interviewer recently asked Mr Lange what it was like to be the successor to Messrs Savage, Fraser, Nash, Kirk and end up with unemployment at current levels. “Of course it is not nice.” Mr Lange said he had not envisaged when he became Prime Minister that unemployment would reach its current levels. “That is one of the problems that emerge, however, from not the Government’s economic policy but the sheer reality of changes in employment market places and needs.

“What I fear is to have economic recovery but not employment recovery. “There are some coun-

tries which have actually managed to do that,” said Mr Lange. The last year has seen some members of the Labour Party assert the Government is no longer faithful to traditional party ideals. Mr Lange said discussing such a question was a problem, as it involved two quite different things. “We are talking about the motivation which causes us to be in Parliament, and then we are talking about the conflict about the means by which we achieve that goal.

“The second dilemma is that sometimes the means actually beome the ends, and that is a real problem,” he said.

“I mean, my political objective in the social area is not necessarily that there should be more expenditure, but that there should be better expenditure, not no expenditure. “That is something which I believe is a consistent Labour tradition, and in fact you will see in this Budget that we have been consistent in terms of that tradition because there actually have been real increases in health and housing, education and social welfare,” he said.

“So to that extent the cynicism of the party is

not really justified. “There is a very real concern, I think, that the party considers it has not been partners with the Government in the terms of movement through some of the decisions.”

Mr Lange said that, from the party’s perspective, he could sympathise with that position.

“That is one of the problems of being in Government. “I remember before the 1984 election saying it would be a Labour Government but it can not be beholden to either Watties or the wharfies. “You have got a responsibility which must be somewhat more global than rehearsing the position of one’s party, but the art in that of course is to be extremely sensitive to one’s party.” Mr Lange said the party was emerging from a decade in Opposition, during which time there had been a very high interaction between the Parliamentary and organisational wings of the party, and during which time there was an expansion of membership.

“And of course we won,” Mr Lange said.

“That is when the challenge of constituency arose.

“It’s interesting to observe the two main politi-

cal parties in New Zealand because the National Government made no pretence at all of consulting the party on anything.

“And the National Party was perfectly happy to have its annual booze up and knees up and be supportive of the Government.

“Not a lot of deep thinking went on, not a lot of meetings of policy or anything like that, and certainly the populism of the Muldoon administration was with the direct appeal to the electorate. “In fact, he had a profound contempt of some of the party’s structures and he went so far as to condemn them publicly.

"So in that sense, there has been a tradition in New Zealand of appeal to the electorate and that will continue, there’s no doubt about that. “But it must continue in a way that is not perceived by the party as a calculated affront.

“There’s the balance,” he said.

Mr Lange dismissed any disputes within the Cabinet — particularly between himself and the Minister of Finance, Mr Douglas — as "history,” and all resolved; and he said the caucus had been “remarkably supportive” of the cabinet.” The Ashburton caucus meeting had opened a new working relationship between caucus and cabinet, giving more emphasis to caucus committees.

The relationship had proved successful. “I think it’s important to remember that there are some things which can never be the subject of that, because of the need for confidentiality, and fundamentally budget decisions are not part of that consultative process,” Mr Lange said. “But we’re seeing significant understandings reached on legislation and the like through that process.

“Caucus is interesting. It always takes time for

people to become members of Parliament, members of the caucus, there’s a lot of settling in.

"But the demands made on them — the new intake have proved remarkably loyal. In fact their loyalty has been in excess of a couple of the older ones — one of the older ones,” Mr Lange said.

The Prime Minister also said he was pleased with the performance of his cabinet. "The cabinet is interesting because of the different responsibilities now,” Mr Lange said. “I guess we’re entering a period when 10 years out we’ll have a different cabinet structure and pressures will be off some and go on to other broader political issues. "But they’re on top of their portfolios.

“The new ones have had their baptisms of fire, they’ve actually got very active — David Butcher and Helen Clark are examples of a couple, Michael Cuilen and Bill Jeffries are certainly very involved.

“You’re seeing interesting examples of people outside — Trevor de Cleene is always interesting to read and hear what he’s been on about. “He doesn’t meet with cabinet,” Mr Lange said, with a smile.