Iran-Contra may still hurt Bush

Press, 18 March 1988, Page 8

Iran-Contra may still hurt Bush

Vice-President George Bush has the Republican Presidential nomination within sight, but the IranContra charges against former aides to President Reagan |! could hurt him. i

Mr Bush’s chief rival, Robert Dole, says he is hanging in the race — at least -through the April 5 Wisconsin primary — despite | the long odds against {him, and one reason is that he could make capital out of the charges, I While Mr Bush appears to have clear sailing, political analysts say he will face new questions about his role in the Iran-Contra affair, the secret sale of weapons; to Iran, and the diversion of profits to Nicaraguan rebels.

Mr Dole has said that Mr Bush’s sometimes contradictory answers on the scandal I have left him open to a credibility problem that Democrats could use in the November election.

Mr Bush himself has not been implicated in any wrongdoing and has said he has told all there is about his role. He denies that he knew it was an a.rms-for-hostage deal until'after the scandal broke, even though he sat in I on some White House meetings when the issue was discussed. He refusesj to say what advice he gave Mr Reagan, and this had led his critics to question his leadership abilities.

In Tuesday’s Illinois primary, Mr Bush won 62 of the 82 Republican delegates and has an estimated 838 of the 1139 delegates needed for the nomination — far ahead of Mr Dole. The former television evangelist, Pat Robertson, is a distant

third. : ! One independent political analyst.' William Schneider, said the indictments would! hurt Mr Bush since it would “raise the issue” of who in the top ranks of the Administration was responsible for the affair.

Another (analyst, Norman Ornstein, said the ' : indictments and subsequent trials could have an effect on Republican chances of keeping the s White House when Mr Bush starts apealing to the wider electorate. “As evidence is raised, Mr Bush will be asked about them ... the result is he won’t be able to set his own agenda,” he said. Michael {Mahaffey, Republican party chairman in lowa, said the affair has not been a big factor in the campaign and would not! hurt Mr Bush as “party! loyalists and activists tend to circle the wagon.” i Mr Dole has said the Iran-Contra j indictments were a factor in his desire to stick it out because “they are going to raise this question again ... and certainly it’s going to affect those who are in the Administration.” A CBS : poll said after the Illinois voting that only 10 per cent of Republicans said the IranContra deal mattered in their choice of a Presidential nominee.

On the Democratic side, the Illinois primaries left the race no clearer. Senator Paul Simon’s win over the black civil rights leader, -Jesse Jackson, both Illinbis residents, was seen as (a battle among favourite’sons. The Massachusetts' Governor, Michael } Dukakis, the national front-runner, was a distant third.