Govt slides in popularity

Press, 7 March 1988, Page 1

Govt slides in popularity

Voters have turned markedly against the Government over the last two months, (according to a “New Zealand Herald”-National Research Bureau (poll held within the last fortnight.) The poll, New) Zealand’s biggest sampling between elections, has recorded a markedly larger turnround than other recent surveys. Labour has dropped 10 percentage points to trail National

by 16 points. In December the Government still held a two-point margin. The 18-point shift is the greatest movement ip support between the 'two parties since the poll began) l Voters were asked: “If an election were Held yesterday, which party would i you have voted for?” Their response, tabled with that of previous polls, was: !

The number of uncommitted voters in the poll rose from 18 per cent in December to 28 per cent this time. There was a 13 per cent non vote in the 1987 election.

per cent support in the latest poll is the highest it has recorded in “Herald”-NRB surveys. It is [, surpassed only by Labour’s record rating in the opinion poll lastl June. A breakdown Of the movement in political loyalties suggests Labour’s [ decline stems mainly from a drift of previous support into the uncommitted category. More than 40 per cent of poll respondents, who voted Labour last year withheld their support in the latest survey. Fully 12 per cent of them said they would vote National. Of 1987 Labour voters, 59 per cent would remain loyal, 25 per cent arei uncommitted, 12 per cent would switch to National, two per cent wduld switch to the Democratic Party, and two per cent [ iwould switch to “All others.” | Of 1987 National voters, 86 per cent would remain loyal, 10 per cent are) uncommitted, three per cent would switch to Labour, and one per Cent wduld switch to the Democratic Painty. Of 1987 non-voters, 74 per cent are still! uncommitted, nine per cent would now vote Labour, 15 per cent wduld now vote National, one per cent would now vote Democratic Party, and one per (cent would now vote "All others.” The gwitchinjg of preferences leaves the two major parties with support (derived as follows:

The poll was conducted among 2000 eligible voters from February 23 to March 1.

Since the December poll (which saw little change from the August election) the electorate has seen a rift between the Prime Minister,(Mr Lange, and the Minister of Finance, Mr Douglas. j A tax and benefit reform package produced by Mr Douglas in December was much criticised during January. J At the end of the montt| it was suspended by Mr Lange j in the absence of the Minister of Finance, who cut short a European visit and flew home to defend publicly his scheme.

On February 10, at a [special cabinet meeting,' Mr Douglas surrendered a flat income [tax for the time being. During the following weeks the Government announced the sale of Petrocorp to; British Gas, Mr Lange told Parliament a form of capital gains tax was on the way, a 1986 order was reversed to allow Ansett New Zealand to become wholly Australian owned, and the monthly unemployment register topped 100,000. The National Party’s rise to 54

Newly eligible (voters 6 2 4 The poll was conducted among respondents seeded by random probability methods in the 20 main population centres and interviewed face to (face. The results are subject to a maximum statistical sampling error of plus or minus 2 per cerit. Copyright, 1988—“ New Zealand Herald”. Tomorrow: How the country views proposed tax changes.

Mar 1988 Dec 1987 Aug elec. July all electorate poll s Ju 198 7 Apr 1987 Feb 1987 Party % % % % % % % Labour 38 48 48 5457 • 52 50 National '54 46 44 42 39 42 44 Democratic ! 5 4 6 3 2 4 4 All others 1 3 2 2 1 2 2 2

1 : i Prese nt support for 1 Labour Natiom il Uncommitted Comes from 1987 % % % Labour voters 84 12 39 National voters 4 79 14 Democratic 1 Party voters 1 2 4 All other voters 1 — 2 Non-voters ■ 4 5 i 37