Report speculates on Soviet military spending

Press, 28 January 1988, Page 40

Report speculates on Soviet military spending

By

LARS FOYEN

NZPA-Reuter Soviet military spending is probably five to seven times higher than the Kremlin admits, but may still be far below the United States and its allies, according to a new study by prominent Western military analysts. “Russian traditions of secrecy and deception have always masked both strength and weakness,” Professor Carl Jacobsen said in the study, published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (5.1.P.R.1). He said the official Soviet State budgets of the 1970 s and 1980 s allocated barely 2 per cent of gross domestic product (G.D.P.) to defence. But United States, British and French contributors to the study, entitled "The Soviet Defence Enigma. Estimating costs and burden,” estimated actual costs at 10 to 15 per cent of G.D.P.

The United States in 1986 spent 6.7 per cent of G.D.P. on defence, said 5.1.P.R.1., an international think-tank funded by Sweden’s Parliament. The size of Soviet defence expenditure, crucial to Western security debates on defence and policy, has for decades been one of the most jealously guarded secrets in the world. The United Nations Central Intelligence Agency (C.1.A.), piecing together information on Soviet military programmes and adding up estimated costs, set Soviet defence spending at 15 to 17 per cent of G.D.P. in a 1986 study. Scholars contributing to the 5.1.P.R.1. volume analysed large unitemised funds in the Soviet budget, and available statistics about the. Soviet economy and labour force, to arrive at the 10 to 15 per cent estimate. C.I.A. estimates in the late 19705, suggesting a

far greater Soviet military effort, helped United States President Ronald Reagan’s defence build-up win congressional approval, they said. Despite the Soviet Union’s heavier defence burden in terms of G.D.P., Moscow lags far behind the United States in actual defence spending, according to 5.1.P.R.1. The institute put United States military expenditure in 1985 at 205 billion dollars (at 1980 prices and exchange rates), while the Soviet Union was estimated to have spent 146 billion dollars. The difference was even more pronounced if other N.A.T.O. members, which spent $123 billion, were compared to the Soviet Union’s Warsaw Pact allies, which spent only $l4 billion in 1985 on defence, according to S.I.P.R.L’s estimates. “The problem is that amounts of money do not measure value in the same way in both econo-

mies,” 5.1.P.R.1. said. The enigma surrounding Soviet military strength will remain until Moscow opens its books, Professor Jacobsen said, noting that while some Western experts think the Russians have significant hidden missile reserves, others believe part of their weapon systems are dummies. Mikhail Gorbachev’s civilian economic reform programmes were likely to mean a zero-growth or reduced defence budget, 5.1.P.R.1. said, but it warned that a reversal was likely to occur if the international situation became chilly. “Western statesmen would do well to remember that such reversals have been frequent in Russian history, and that both governments and citizens have repeatedly tightened their belts when faced with foreign threats to their status and security,” the study said.