Labour ahead of National by 18 points

Press, 30 May 1987, Page 3

Labour ahead of National by 18 points

By

OLIVER RIDDELL

in Wellington

The latest “Eyewit-ness”-Heylen public opinion poll that puts Labour a record 18 points ahead of National is more bad news for National than good news for Labour.

Poor public rating of Labour’s performance on interest rates — 22 per cent approval and 64 per cent disapproval — shows that support for Labour is still fragile.

But for all that, Labour increased its margin over National from 11 points in the April poll to 18 points in the May poll.

Labour now has 57 per cent support (up four points) and National 39 per cent support (down three points), with the General Election now less than three months away and maybe only two months.

The poll result coincides with the announcement that a General Election will be held in Australia during July and has prompted speculation that the Labour Government might be tempted to go in tandem with Australia

while so far ahead in the polls. Three factors mitigate against a July election in New Zealand. The officials have said that complete electoral rolls cannot be ready before August. Going to the polls on incomplete rolls might hurt Labour. An early election because of favourable public opinion polls would be seen as opportunism and might hurt Labour. Holding an election as late as possible would give a chance for economic indicators, such as interest rates, to improve and so help Labour. National’s rating is being hurt by its failure to deliver and promote striking policies and by its failure to provide leaders in sharp contrast with Labour’s. It is not too late for the policies but it is not likely National’s leadership will make a stronger impression even when their profiles are lifted by the election campaign. The rating of preferred Prime Minister showed Mr Lange at 37 per cent (up six points), Mr Bolger at 8 per cent (the same as last month), and Sir Robert Muldoon at 18 per cent (down one point, after being overseas for some time). A total of 51 per cent approved the way Mr Lange was doing his job while 28 per cent approved the way Mr Bolger was doing his. The Government’s overall performance was approved by 50 per cent and disapproved by 40 per cent, perhaps a more reliable gauge of the gap between the parties, while 50 per cent approved its handling of the economy and 39 per cent disapproved. The 18-point gap between Labour and National is reminiscent of the days when Mr Jim McLay was Leader of the Opposition just before the coup that replaced him with Mr Bolger. Unless Mr Bolger’s support falls to the low 2 to 3 per cent level Mr McLay reached, it is unlikely there will be any move to replace him as leader.