British preparing for early General Election

Press, 12 January 1987, Page 4

British preparing for early General Election

By

HUGH BARLOW

NZPA staff correspondent London The British are preparing for a General Election this year even though the Prime Minister, Mrs Thatcher, has given no firm indication she will go to the polls before 1988. Plenty of hints have filtered out of Downing Street that an early election was possible. A big clue came from the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Mr Nigel Lawson, in November when, he outlined an increase of £lO billion in public spending over the next two years. It was widely seen as an election sweetener.

Substantial leads for the Government in opinion polls late last year added to the speculation that an election was not far away. Senior Conservative Party

officials encouraged the rumours.

It was reported that the Tories had booked vast numbers of poster sites from April to June, suggesting a spring poll, but the report, in “Today,” quoted Labour officials as suspecting the bookings were just a ploy to encourage the underfinanced opposition to spend its campaign funds too soon.

While - the opposition ponders, an opinion poll published in the “Sunday Times” recently will have left Tory planners in two minds as well, analysts say.

The poll, conducted by MORI, showed the 8.5 per cent lead over Labour the Conservatives enjoyed in a pre-Christmas poll had shrunk to just 1 per cent — not a reassuring margin if an election is just around the comer.

It also showed an overwhelming majority of Britons wanted an election this year. Of the 1825 voters surveyed, 78 per cent favoured an election this year and only 16 per cent wanted to wait until the present five-year term ends in 1988.

According to the “Times” political editor, Mrs Thatcher and her chairman, Mr Norman Tebbit, will want to wait until the polls are more favourable to their party, but if the polls do not move and they wait until next year, there could be an adverse reaction from the electorate.

That happened to the last Labour premier, Mr Jim Callaghan, the Times said. He encouraged expectations of an election in October 1978 and then decided to wait until the following year. The result was a Conservative land-

■ slide. The MORI poll put toe 38 per cent and the Liberal/Social Democrat Alliance at 21 per cent If repeated in a General Election the result would be a "hung” Parliament with the Tories 17 seats short of a majority. The poll showed the Alliance’s popularity was continuing to increase after plummeting to well below 20 per cent in the wake of the two parties* fall out over defence policy. Liberal leader, Mr David Steel, and S.D.P. leader. Dr David Owen, clearly expect an election this year. A rise in Alliance support will be welcomed by the Labour Party. A breakdown of previous polls shows labour has its best chance of winning an election if the Alliance

vote is about 25 per cent the Labour vote down. It was not all bad for the Government irS ptflL It showed that 28 jter cent thought iaconomte conditions would imnrno» <’ over the next year. Two : Mrs Thatcher could also : take comfort from voters’ views of the party leaden. ; She received a satisfied ' rating from 83 per cent of Conservative supporters with 14 per cent dissatisfied ~ a net figure of 69. J The net rating for the J Labour leader, Mr Neil Kinnock, was just 47, with s 67 per cent of Labour voters happy with his per- J formance and 20 per cent unhappy. Mr Steel and Dr Owen enjoyed net figures of 65 and 62 respectively.