THE PRESS SATURDAY, JANUARY 10, 1987. Sir Joh looks south

Press, 10 January 1987, Page 16

THE PRESS SATURDAY, JANUARY 10, 1987. Sir Joh looks south

Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen, the Premier of Queensland, will turn 76 within the next few days. Having dominated Queensland politics for many years and having, towards the end of 1986, won an election that all but one pundit said he could not help but lose, it might have been expected that he would see his term as the new Premier out and that would be that. Instead, Sir Joh BjelkePetersen is showing a clear preference for topping off his political career by heading for Canberra, there to slay what he sees as the Labour Government dragon. He cannot be completely specific about his plans as yet because he has not been nominated to contest a seat in the Federal Parliament. The election is most likely either to be very late this year or early next year, and Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen still has time. The 1972-1975 Labour Government in Australia had good cause to rue its underestimation of the Queensland Premier. The Whitlam Government appointed one of its senators to an ambassadorship, and had expected Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen to follow the traditional practice of nominating to the Senate someone else from his state who came from the same party as the departing senator. Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen was unpredictable, and appointed a non-Labour man, adding to the Senate instability. This eventually led to the Upper House’s refusal of money with which to run the Government, and the eventual dismissal of the Whitlam Government. It is certain that whatever scorn and derision are directed at Sir Joh BjelkePetersen by Labour in 1987, his moves will be watched warily. His most immediate. threat is not, however, to the Labour Government, but to the Federal Opposition, a coalition of the Liberal Party and the National Party. Mr John Howard, the Liberal leader who replaced Mr Andrew Peacock, leads the Federal Opposition and is widely regarded in Australia as ineffective. Mr lan Sinclair, the leader of the National Party at the Federal level, is in no position to challenge the leader of the dominant party in the coalition. What Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen has been arguing is that the two parties should not be in a coalition when they are in opposition. He believes that while they are, the National Party will have to tailor its own policies to present a united view. The Queensland National Party broke up the coalition in that state, and the National Party came to have an outright majority in the Parliament. Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s attitude has long been

characterised by a yiew that what is good for Queensland is good for the whole of Australia. The platform from which Sir Joh BjelkePetersen will launch his campaign is that of tax reform. He wants a flat-rate tax of about 25 per cent. It is a platform which will have a widespread appeal. More than 100 widely differing groups are reported to have approached Sir. Joh Bjelke-Petersen to lead the campaign. Some of those known as the New Right will support him, but that group is generally stronger on economic theory — even economic extremism — than it is on political skill. The New Right is primarily concerned with the reform of industrial relations. That is a platform without the widespread appeal of tax changes. Until recently the fortunes of parties outside the main parties-in New Zealand and Australia have been slight, but in recent elections in both countries, a substantial number of votes have gone to new parties. Sir Joh BjelkePetersen’s plans cannot be dismissed lightly. It is not yet clear whether he will launch a new party and hope to attract defectors from other parties, or whether he will launch himself in the colours of the National Party. Either way he will have a profound impact on the conservative vote. If Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen were elected to the Federal Parliament, under normal circumstances he would probably remain a back-bencher for a few years. At 76, that would not suit his purposes. The chances thus seem high that he will seek a position of power in the party organisation before he tries to enter the Federal Parliament, and thus be able to exert power from that position. Both Mr Howard and Mr Sinclair are already responding to the initiatives taken by Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen. Mr Howard is calling for unity within the coalition, and Mr Sinclair, in what looks suspiciously like panic, has put forward an ill-researched proposal that the states become the taxcollectors in Australia. That has been rejected by the Liberals. Sir Joh BjelkePetersen has already caused major disruption within the coalition. That is probably only the beginning. Those interested in backing him are considering the formation of a group with the single issue of reform of the tax system, and hope that those who will effect this will then go back to their private lives, leaving politics to others. To those who think like that, Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s age would be seen as a recommendation for leadership, not a handicap.