ALL QUIET ON THE N.A.T.O. FRONT

Press, 6 January 1987, Page 17

ALL QUIET ON THE N.A.T.O. FRONT

George Shultz, (right), the

American Secretary of State, has described the British Labour Party’s non-nuclear defence policy as “catastrophic.” But how would

N.A.T.O. fare in a purely conventional war? The London “Observer” defence correspondent, lAN MATHER, reports.

For six hours of a bright, frosty day last month, Private First Class Ricardo Walton of the United States Army had a role fit for a hero. He would have been the first American soldier to confront the Russians if they had decided to invade during his shift

Private Walton did not relish the prospect “I ain’t never seen any Russians, only in pictures, and I never want to see any,” he shouted from the dark interior of the armoured troop carrier he was guarding.

We were in the famous Fulda Gap, reckoned to be the most vulnerable point in the West’s defences. This is where East Germany protrudes farthest into West Germany, reducing it to a width of less than a hundred miles. Within the protuberance the Russians have stationed many of their elite troops. According to military experts — and retired N.A.T.0." generals who have published semi-fic-tional accounts — the valley of the River Fulda is the route for the Russians to launch a breathtaking blitzkrieg in which their tanks would smash through the West’s fragile defences, race to the Rhine at Frankfurt, and then declare themselves the winners. I had arrived at the United States Army position, an Observation Post known as Alpha, to try to find out whether the situation on N.A.T.O.’s front line really was as hopeless as N.A.T.O.’s military chiefs were making out. Recently, the generals have been giving vent to feelings of acute discomfort at the prospect of a Europe without cruise and Pershing missiles. As NA.T.O.’s Supreme Commander, Bernard Rogers, put it somewhat inelegantly: “The thought gives me

gas pains,” Their argument is that if the Reykjavik Summit were to lead to the removal of large numbers of nuclear weapons, the apparently overwhelming odds in conventional forces which the Warsaw Pact enjoys would leave NA.T.O. dangerously at risk.

Last month, the generals’ campaign gained a success when N.A.T.O. Foreign Ministers decided that because of the prospect of deep cuts in nuclear weapons, N.A.T.O. would seek fresh negotiations with the Warsaw Pact to reduce numbers of conventional weapons “from the Urals to the Atlantic.”

Lord Carrington, N.A.T.O.’s Secretary General, said these would be ‘TOO times more difficult” than nuclear weapons negotiations. “How do you equate the military significance of a Canadian coastguard, a Romanian reservist, a Bulgarian bandsman, and a Scottish stretcher-bearer?" he asked. Private Walton was tucked away at Observation Post Alpha in a lane close to the East German border. His “reaction vehicle” was out of sight of the Grenztroopen, East German border soldiers, who were in a look-out post on top of a grey pillar made from upended sections of sewer pipe. Private Walton’s intelligence officer, Lt Stephen Wood, explained that upon receipt of warning that a Soviet force had crossed the border into West Germany, the reaction vehicle’s

crew, the other five of whom were resting at that time nearby, would race to the scene of the incursion, driven by Private Walton.

Should the invasion turn out to be real, World War Three would have begun. They would radio for reinforcements. In the meantime, Private Walton had absolutely nothing to do except guard his vehicle. The Russians were on the other side of the hill, out of sight. Normally they are forbidden to approach within five kilometres of the border on foot, unlike the Americans, who fly the American flag and patrol right along the fence. 5

A silver birch cross at the foot of the American watchtower was

a reminder of the high stakes involved. It marked the spot where one Christmas night a father had been shot dead trying to escape to the West. His 12-year-old son had been taken away.

The “Central Front” in Germany is the most militarised region in the world, where the most massive concentration of military firepower ever seen is assembled. Unlike in Britain, NA.T.O. military forces have free rights to manoeuvre on both public and private land. German roads, railways, airports, and communications are built to maximise their wartime usefulness. Autobahns are designed to serve as landing strips for military aircraft About 90 civilian and military airports are earmarked for military cargo and troops. Bridges, roads, and railway tunnels are built with detonation chambers ready for destruction in the face of the advancing enemies’ forces. On the Warsaw Pact side are 19 elite Soviet divisions in East Germany, totalling 380,000 with two more divisions in Poland and six in Czechoslovakia. There are also six East German divisions, 15 Polish and 10 Czechoslovak. To the rear in the Western U.S.SR. are 38 Russian divisions. Hungary, with 80,000 Soviet troops, is considered part of the “Southern Front.”

It is not a simple matter to read this military balance sheet. There is much more to it than numbers, which is why people can arrive at such wildly contradictory conclusions.

To try to make sense of the complex equation I interviewed a number of military intelligence officers at the front line, whose job it is to make realistic on-the-

spot assessments of what would happen in the event of a Soviet attack. The United States soldiers at Observation Post Alpha were members of the Uth Armoured Cavalry Regiment based in the town of Fulda, 25 miles back from the border from where reinforcements would come. Its role is to stop the Russians at the border.

“We are one of the most modern units in the United States Army,” said Major Harry Lesser, the regimental intelligence officer. “We have our full complement of new tanks and armoured fighting vehicles. We have night vision, which the Soviets do not have. All this gives us a very good capability to manoeuvre very quickly on the battlefield, and to bring a vast amount of fire-power to bear at those places where we need it and at the decisive time.” The regiment’s 4400 troops have the latest high-speed American Abrams tanks, brand new Bradley armoured fighting vehicles, and many helicopters. The Fulda Gap is not really a

gap at all, Major Lesser explained. He indicated on a large map that an invading force would have to make its way across four rivers, which would cause crucial delays, and go around four large hills which provide good defensive positions.

Even if two East German divisions based there were included with the Russians, which was thought unlikely, the ratio of attackers to defenders would still be only two to one, far short of the three-to-one advantage considered necessary for a successful attack.

“This force ratio, combined with the nature of the terrain and our modernisation, makes us feel very comfortable about being able to execute our war plan and to be successful,” Major Lessing said.

“We have a very good capability to stabilise this portion of the battle and then to seize the initiative and conduct a counterattack, probably within four or five days.” Major Lesser also had a low opinion of Russian military equipment, particularly helicopters, indicating another imponderable factor often ignored in official figures. A similar impression of quiet confidence in NA.T.O.’sresources emerged from a visit to another part of the German border. Fifty miles north of Fula, east of the town of Kassel, the Second Panzer Grenadier Division of the West German Army faces the Russians. 1 .

Again, the most njdSern weapons in the West German

Army are to be found here. The Germans proudly demonstrated their Leopard 2 tank, which can fire on the run, and contrasted it with the poor performance and unreliability of the Russians’ tanks.

The division’s intelligence officer remarked: “In our area there is a ratio of 1.5 to one or two to one in favour of the Ted’ forces. This means that with our better equipment and the good defensive terrain, the factors are in favour of the defence.”

However, the Germans here, like all the NATO, forces in Germany, are hampered by having to apply NA.T.O.’s strategy of forward defence. This means that not an inch of West German territory is to be surrendered

without a fight “From a military point of view it’s unwise to start a battle just in front of the enemy's front line,” said Colonel Camp. “As they will have the initiative from the beginning, the other side will be able to' place their troops where they want them. “However, with 25 per cent of the West German population living within 30 miles of the East German border, it’s just not politically possible to lose them from the beginning." In fact, neither side has the slightest intention of attacking the other. The Russian troops in East Germany have a dual role, to supress the local population as well as to confront N.A.T.O. Unless they mobilised, the Russians could attack only with the troops now in East Germany and Czechoslovakia. These are monitored by NATO, satellites and listening stations. Every six months there is a “roulement” of Soviet troops between the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, which is also watched very carefully for any sign of a change in the pattern. A surprise attack is considered impossible If the Russians started shipping trainloads of troops into East Germany using the Polish railways and roads, they would lose the element of surprise

If the Russians continued they could not hope to win. N.AT.O. has twice the population of the Warsaw Pact and seven times the economic strength. The Russians could not prevent reinforcements from pouring in from the United States, because they are out-numbered in ships by two to one in aircraft carriers by seven to one in amphibious landing capability by five to one and in marines by 14 to one.

N-A-T.O.’s slight inferiority in submarine fleets is more than compensated for by geography, which prevents the Russians from putting to sea from any port without travelling through “choke points,” narrow areas where the West has prepared to block their access to the high seas, as well as by the Russians* low efficiency and inferiority in anti-submarine warfare. So there seems no reason to dispute the latest assessment by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, namely that “the conventional military balance is still such as to make general military aggression a highly risky undertaking for either side. There would still appear to be insufficient over-all strength on either side to guarantee victory.”

‘A hundred times more difficult’

Vast amount of

firepower...