Lead by Labour slips to three points, says poll

Press, 20 December 1986, Page 1

Lead by Labour slips to three points, says poll

Labour’s lead over National slipped to three percentage points early this month, as compared with five points late in September. The latest “New Zealand Herald”National Research Bureau poll shows Labour as the choice of 49 per cent of committed voters and National as the choice of 46 per cent. Uncommitted voters totalled 18 per cent of the sample, as compared with 20 per cent in the previous poll. The poll shows no movement for the Democratic Party or the New Zealand Party, which continue to receive support of 3 per cent and 1 per cent respectively. The new poll was taken from November 29 to December 3. The previous one was held from September 20 to 24. Events between the two polls included

Of eligible voters, 18 per cent were uncommitted (that is, they said they would not vote, or did not know, or refused to say which party they would vote for), as compared with 20 per cent in September and a 9 per cent non-vote in the July 1984 election. The poll figures are subject to a maximum statistical sampling error of plus or minus 2 per cent. Of people who voted for the New Zealand Party in 1984, 7 per cent remain loyal. The Labour Party continues to be the major beneficiary of the collapse of support for the New Zealand Party. Fewer are inclined to switch to National than before, but instead of moving towards Labour they are more likely to be uncommitted. The position of the Democratic Party is essentially unchanged, with half its supporters in the 1984 election inclined to support other parties. Labour gains slightly more of the moving votes than does National. Direct switching between Labour and National continues to be fairly even. Labour’s gains at the expense of the minor parties are greater than National’s. Labour has lost 31 per cent of its 1984 voters, with the greater proportion (19 per cent) saying they are uncommitted. Of 1984 National voters, 81 per cent

the local body elections on October 11, publication of the redrawn electoral boundaries on November 7, regional s electioneering tours by the Labour and National leaders in October, and — just as the latest poll began — National’s announcement of a proposed “Extax” with which the party would, if elected, replace GST. The “Herald”-NRB survey, the most comprehensive poll in New Zealand, covered 2000 eligible voters in the 20 main population centres. The respondents were selected by random probability methods and were interviewed face-to-face. People were asked: “If an election had been held yesterday, which party would you have voted for?” The answers of intending voters are compared with those in previous polls and with the vote in the July 1984 election:

.emain loyal, with 8 per cent uncommitted. Of 1984 Labour voters, 69 per cent would remain loyal (compared with 73 per cent in September), 19 per cent are uncommitted (15 per cent), 10 per cent would switch to National (11 per cent), 1 per cent would switch to the Democratic Party (unchanged), and 1 per cent would switch to the New Zealand Party (previously none). Of 1984 National voters, 81 per cent would remain loyal (79 per cent), 11 per cent would switch to Labour (unchanged), and 8 per cent are uncommitted (10 per cent). Of 1984 New Zealand Party voters, 43 per cent would switch to Labour (unchanged), 28 per cent would switch to National (35 per cent), 20 per cent are uncommitted (16 per cent), 7 per cent would remain loyal (6 per cent), 1 per cent would switch to the Democratic Party (none) and 1 per cent would switch to “all others” (none). Of 1984 Social Credit (Democratic Party) voters, 29 per cent would remain loyal (27 per cent), 27 per cent would switch to Labour (29 per cent), 24 per cent would switch to National (21 per cent), and 20 per cent are uncommitted (23 per cent). The switching of votes leaves the four parties and the uncommitted group with support derived as follows:

It is noteworthy that of all uncommitted voters, 38 per cent were Labour supporters in 1984, as compared with 28 per cent in September. Copyright, 1986 — “New Zealand Herald” Monday: Changes in the “preferred Prime Minister” ratings.

Dec ’86 Sept ’86 July ’86 Mar ’86 Oct ’85 Jun ’85 Feb ’85 Dec ’84 Oct ’84 Election % % % % % % % % % % Labour 49 50 48 52 50 41 44 44 48 43 National 46 45 47 40 40 43 42 39 33 36 Democratic 3 3 3 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 N.Z Party 1 1 1 3 4 10 8 10 13 12 All others 1 1 1 1 1 — 1 1 — 1

Labour National N.Z.P. Democrat Uncommit. Comes from % % % % % ’84 Labour voters 63 10 14 16 38 ’84 National voters 8 65 11 — 13 ’84 N.Z. Party voters 11 8 51 5 11 ’84 Social Credit voters 4 4 — 68 7 ’84 All Other voters — 1 — — 1 Non-voters in ’84 4 5 11 4 22 Newly eligible voters 10 7 13 7 8