Poll gives Labour 50% backing

Press, 20 October 1986, Page 3

Poll gives Labour 50% backing

Three party conferences between July and September appear to have made little difference to the levels of popular support for the main political parties. A September poll shows Labour with 50 per cent backing among committed voters, National with 45, and the Democratic Party with 3.

The latest “New Zealand Herald”National Research Bureau survey shows that, over the two months, Labour gained two points, National lost two, and the Democratic Party’s rating was unchanged in spite of its new leadership. Labour’s one-point lead over National in July widened to five points in September. In March, before Mr Jim Bolger became the National party leader, Labour’s margin was 12 points. The July poll was held from July 19 to 23. The latest poll was from September 20 to 24.

The National party held its 50th conference in Auckland early in August. It chose Mr Neville Young, a Christchurch lawyer and businessman, to succeed Mrs Sue Wood as party president. The former party leader, Mr Jim McLay, announced that he would leave Parliament at the next election.

Late in August National announced its proposed new superannuation scheme. Mr Bolger was overseas for three weeks

Of eligible voters, 20 per cent were uncommitted (that is, they said they would not vote, or did not know, or refused to say which party they would vote for), compared with 18 per cent in July and a 9 per cent non-vote in the July, 1984, election. The poll figures are subject to a maximum statistical sampling error of plus or minus 2 per cent. Of people who voted for the New Zealand Party in the 1984 election (a total of 236,385), 6 per cent remain loyal, compared with 17 per cent six months ago. The Labour Party continues to be the main beneficiary of the collapse of support for the New Zealand Party, although more are switching to National than before.

The Democratic Party remains in much the same position as in the July survey, with half its 1984 voters (a total of 147,162) inclined to support other parties. Again Labour receives more of the moving votes than does National. Direct switching between Labour and National stands at 11 per cent each. (The Labour vote in 1984 was 829,154; the National vote was 692,494.) Labour’s gains at the expense of minor parties are greater than National’s. Fifteen per

just before the September poll was taken.

The Labour Party presented its Budget at the end of July. In mid-August the Budget leak came to light and the Minister of Finance, Mr Douglas, offered his resignation, which was not accepted. The Labour Party conference was held in Wellington at the end of August and the beginning of September. The Democratic Party met in Blenheim in the second half of August. The party deposed Mr Bruce Beetham as leader and installed Mr Neil Morrison, the member of Parliament for Pakuranga. Mr Beetham at first threatened to form a new party but by the end of August he decided to stay for the sake of unity.

Those were some of the influences that could have affected public support in the September “Herald”-NRB survey. The poll covered 2000 eligible voters selected by random probability methods in the 20 main population centres. Interviews were conducted face to face.

People were asked: “If an election had been held yesterday, which party would you have voted for?” The answers of intending voters are compared with those in previous polls and with the vote in the July 1984 election:

cent of 1984 Labour voters are uncommitted, compared with 10 per cent of 1984 National voters.

Of 1984 Labour voters, 73 per cent would remain loyal (compared with 70 per cent in July), 15 per cent are uncommitted (no change), 11 per cent would switch to National (13 per cent), and 1 per cent would switch to the Democratic Party (no change). Of 1984 National voters, 79 per cent# would remain loyal (84 per cent), 11 per cent would switch to Labour (7 per cent), and 10 per cent are uncommitted (8 per cent). Of 1984 New Zealand Party voters, 43 per cent would switch to Labour (45 per cent), 35 per cent would switch to National (29 per cent), 16 per cent are' uncommitted (20 per cent), and 6 per cent would remain loyal (3 per cent). Of 1984 Democratic Party voters, 29 per cent would switch to Labour (32 per cent), 27 per cent would remain loyal (29 per cent), 23 per cent are uncommitted (16 per cent), and 21 per cent would switch to National (23 per cent). The switching of votes leaves the four parties, and the uncommitted group, with support derived as follows:

you like to see our New Zealand flag changed?”

Sept 86 % July 86 % Mar 86 % Oct 85 % Jun 85 % Feb 84 % Dec 84 % July Oct ElecJun 84 % Apr 84 % Feb 84 % Dec 83 % Sep 83 % 84 % tion % Labour 50 48 52 50 41 44 44 48 43 48 41 36 38 37 National 45 47 40 40 43 42 39 33 36 36 38 40 35 45 Democratic Party 3 3 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 8 6 5 8 11 N.Z. Party 1 1 3 4 10 8 10 13 12 7 14 18 18 6 All others 1 . 1 1 1 • 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1

Labour National N.Z. Party Democratic Party Uncommitted Comes from % % . % % % 84 Labour voters 66 10 4 14 28 84 National voters 8 66 - - 45 84 N.Z. Party voters 11 10 69 - 8 84 Social credit voters 5 4 - 76 8 84 All other voters 1 1 . ■ - - 2 Non-voters in 84 3 4 6 4 27 Newly eligible voters 6 5 21 6 12 Copyright, 1986 - “New Zealand Herald”