Labour poll double forecast

Press, 15 October 1986, Page 9

Labour poll double forecast

A Labour double on both sides of the Tasman in the next General Elections is the prediction of an Australian political scientist, Mr Malcolm Mackerras. Mr Mackerras, a lecturer in politics at the Australian Defence Forces Academy, was in Christchurch yesterday to speak to the Institute of International Affairs.

A regular election night commentator in Australia, Mr Mackerras invented the election pendulum, which shows seats ranked in order of safety. Mr Mackerras predicted the Labour Governments of Mr Lange and Mr Hawke would be reelected. The Australian Labour Party had been through its worst patch recently,

but Mr Mackerras expected the economy to improve next year, carrying Mr Hawke to another term as Prime Minister. Some pundits were speculating on an early election in Australia, but it would be suicide to go to the polls before the end of 1987, Mr Mackerras said. The former Australian Prime Minister, Mr Malcolm Fraser, had made the mistake of going to the polls soon after the economic disasters of 1982. The economy now was just as bad as 1982, and Mr Hawke would not risk an election before November, 1987, Mr Mackerras said. Mr Hawke had a 55 per cent chance of re-election, and Mr Lange’s chances were 5 per cent higher, he said.

If Mr Lange, but not Mr Hawke, was re-electedd the key reason could be the goods and services tax. The Australian Government’s preference for sales tax and foreign policy were the differences between the Labour parties. New Zealand’s A.N.Z.U.S. policy was a definite plus for the Government, uniting otherwise dissatisfied members of the party, he said. Mr Mackerras saw no great differences between the New Zealand and Australian Oppositions — neither had a leader who seemed able to take his party to election victory. In Australia a New Right ideology had developed in this opposition vacuum. Although “it had it in for Mr Hawke,” the

New Right was more favourably disposed to Rogernomics in New Zealand. It admired the consistency of the Minister of Finance, Mr Douglas’s policies, but believed the New Zealand Labour Party’s fatal weakness would be its failure to deregulate the labour market. Mr Mackerras said, however, that it was a mistake to see too much difference in the deregulation policies of the two Labour parties. . Mr Douglas appeared to be doing more to deregulate the economy, but his performance was being measured against the regulated economy of the previous Minister of Finance and Prime Minister, Sir Robert Muldoon.