The Gulf War’s new front line

Press, 11 September 1986, Page 21

The Gulf War’s new front line

From

ROBIN LUSTIG

in Bagdad

The Gulf War between Iran and Iraq is about to enter a new and more active phase as both sides face mounting domestic problems. Iran — believed by most Western analysts to have the upper hand in the conflict — has announced the despatch of two more divisions of volunteer fighters to the front and has warned Gulf Arab nations that their oil exports are at risk if they continue to support Iraq.

The Iranian move followed Iraq’s successful bombing raid on the Iranian oil terminal on Sirri Island, at the southern end of the Gulf, which had previously been considered out of range of Iraq’s Mirage Fl fighter aircraft. The raid did enormous damage to Iran’s oil exporting capacity, and it has now moved its main export terminal even further south to Larak Island.

After seven years of on-again, off-again war, in which well over 300,000 lives have been lost, the two sides have evidently decided that the time has come to force

the pace. Their hand has been forced not so much by the cost of the war itself — Iraq is well supported by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and other oil-rich Gulf countries, while Iran is backed by Syria, which in turn is supported by the Soviet Union — but by the calamitous fall in oil prices at the beginning of 1986.

Even after the latest O.P.E.C. agreement designed to halt the price slide, both Iran and Iraq are facing a ruinous collapse in oil revenues which neither side can afford.

On both military and economic grounds, most observers of the Gulf War believe that Iran is in a better position than Iraq, even though its technical and material resources are far inferior to those of its enemy. Analysts say that Iran’s advantages are twofold:

@ Its soldiers are much more highly motivated than their Iraqi equivalents. (The Iranians are told they are fighting to overthrow an infidel un-Islamic regime, while the Iraqis know full

well that their political bosses want nothing else than to find a way to stop the whole wretched business);

® Its civilian population is much more prepared for the sacrifices which economic necessity may decree than its better-protected counterparts in Iraq. Nevertheless, recent reports from both Bagdad and Teheran indicate that internal opposition to both regimes may be on the increase. There were reports in July of a failed coup attempt against President Saddam Hussein of Iraq, and last month a powerful bomb exploded in central Teheran. In both cases, it is thought likely that dissatisfaction with the conduct of the war may be behind the unrest, although it is also possible that enemy saboteurs may have been responsible. The past year has seen two Iranian propaganda victories,

with Iraq having to concentrate on defensive tactics while insisting that its military position is not at risk. Early in 1986, Iran managed to cross the vital Shat al Arab waterway, which divides the two countries where the Tigris and Euphrates join at the southern end of the IOOOkm-long border — and seize a part of the Fao peninsula. Although it was of limited strategic value, it was a daring move which Iraq proved quite unable to counter. Nine months later, an estimated 40,000 Iranian troops are dug in at Fao, an embarrassing reminder to Iraq that in spite of its theoretical military superiority it cannot dislodge its enemy. The second Iranian victory was of even less military importance, although again it was highly embarrassing for Iraq. At Mehran, in the central sector of

the war front, Iran recaptured a deserted town which Iraq had seized amid much ballyhoo only six weeks previously, offering to "swap” it for Fao. Once again, Iraq was shown to be incapable of resisting a determined Iranian assault. The only significant Iraqi victory was the aerial attack on Sirri three weeks ago. It was daring, successful and — most important of all — had a devastating effect on Iran’s oil exports. But it will not, on its own, be enough to persuade the aged Iranian leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, to agree to negotiate an end to what Iraq now appears to regard as a wholly pointless war. For Saddam Hussein, the man who wrongly thought that postrevolutionary Iran would be an easy enemy to defeat, it must all be intensely frustrating: for whatever he uses to hit at Iran — whether mustard gas, ground-to-ground missiles aimed at the centre of Teheran, or air attacks on Iran’s oil terminals and refineries — still the Ayatollahs an-

nounce their determination to carry on fighting. And, in spite of periodic signs of an emerging anti-war movement in Iran, so far the bulk of the population seems prepared to go on losing sons and husbands for the sacred, cause of Islam. Yet, perhaps the Sirri Island attack was the shape of things to come. With both sides now accepting that an all-out military victory is virtually unattainable, the aim must surely be to hit the enemy’s prime economic targets in a bid to crush its capacity to continue to fight. It means, inevitably, that the oil tankers, terminals, and refineries which are the life blood of the entire Gulf region have now become the new front line. Copyright, London Observer.

Museum article

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