... Political volcano bubbling away

Press, 11 September 1986, Page 21

... Political volcano bubbling away

Political volcanoes are like geological ones — they erupt only occasionally. In between they boil away beldw the surface. The National Party is acting like a political volcano at present. It is nearly five months since the last visible eruption when the Parliamentary caucus spewed out its leader of only 16 months, Jim McLay, and replaced him with Jim Bolger.

The internal stresses that led to that eruption were eased; now they are building up again. Changing leader addressed the symptoms of the tensions within National but did not get down to the root causes.

Three strands within the National Party are being reflected within its Parliamentary caucus. They found their exponents in the recent race for the party presidency.

• At one end of the spectrum are the pragmatists. They are associated with Sir Robert Muldoon, although their most forceful exponent is Winston Peters. The pragmatists like to deal with issues as they arise, and are fond of using the word “appropriate” in explaining their beliefs and actions. They believe that

sharp and clearly-defined policies are counter-productive in politics; they prefer to apply logic and commonsense to issues as they arise. This group held the ascendancy in Parliament for many years and National’s most successful leaders — Sid Holland, Keith Holyoake, and Sir Robert Muldoon — were pragmatists. Their candidate for the presidency was Brian Shackel, the Christchurch businessman who had no record of involvement in the party and no ideological barrow to push, but emphasised competency. © At the other end of the scale are the idealists. They are still associated with Mr McLay but their most forceful exponent ,is Ruth Richardson.

The idealists believe National should be a vehicle for clearly expounded principles and philosophies. It should not deal with events pragmatically but within a framework of ideals argued out and mutually agreed upon. This group wants to “address the issues” and criticises the pragmatists for their inability to do more than react to events. Its best-known exponents are two of the party’s most wounded figures

— Jack Marshall and Mr McLay. Their candidate for the presidency was Hamish Kynoch, the Hawke’s Bay farmer. He is a fine speaker and articulator of ideals, but he was closely associated with the departing president, Sue Wood, whose term was riven with battles with pragmatists on whom she tried to superimpose her ideals.

® In the middle are the compromisers, who believe in both having ideals and reacting to

individual events as they warrant. They see themselves as “sensible and middle-of-the-road.” They shifted to the McLay camp to help topple Sir Robert Muldoon, and later to the Bolger camp to topple Mr McLay. It is hard to enthuse people from the middle; it is the more extreme rallying cry that motivates the troops. But National’s great strength has been that it has occupied the

middle ground so successfully for so long. Neville Young, the Christchurch solicitor, was “their” presidential candidate. It was appropriate in the context of National Party traditions that, after first one and then the other more extreme candidate seemed to be in front, the prize went to the least extreme. National now has a president who will return to the style of Sir George Chapman and foresake the political minefield trodden by the more philosophically committed Mrs Wood. That should enable him to draw together the disparate threads in the National Party organisation. In Parliament, the party is in no such happy position. The support of the pragmatists for Mr Bolger has made him seem their man. Even if he were not, striking a balance between the pragmatists and the idealists might be beyond human skill. Getting rid of Mr McLay has reduced the emphasis National in Parliament gave to education and social welfare; instead it promoted such issues as whether an inter-island ferry struck the bottom of Tory Channel and who got leaked copies of the Budget.

This tactical switch may have placated those who feared being too precise on social issues but has angered those who view ferry groundings as trivial and irrelevant. The nature of the problem has changed, but the tension is still there. As long as Mr Bolger himself stays up in the polls his leadership will not be seriously questioned before the next election. Even if he plummets as Jpwias Mr McLay did he should survive — and a fall of that magnitude is most unlikely. But the idealists have not given up. They are seeking to promote the candidacy of similarly thinking people in winnable electorates for the next election. This would enable them to build up strength while the‘pragmatists are retiring and getting out of politics. So the pressures are still there for National. Changing a leader has not cured the problem; and the animosity between the pragmatists and idealists is great and is still growing. Geologists cannot predict exactly when an active volcano will erupt again — only that It will. The same holds true for the political volcano that is the National Party.