Time bomb waiting to explode ...

Press, 11 September 1986, Page 21

Time bomb waiting to explode ...

The count-down for the 1987 General Election has begun and the political temperature will rise rapidly over the next 12 months. OLIVER RIDDELL looks at the present state of the two major parties and identifies the problems lying just below their surfaces. He anticipates two Big Bangs.

The Labour Party is a time bomb waiting to explode. Party stalwarts are hoping it does not go off until after the next election; they no longer expect to avoid an explosion. Two camps grew during Labour’s long sojourn in Opposition between 1975 to 1984. The first was known as the “A Team.” It comprised the leader, Bill Rowling, and most of the bright young activists who came into Parliament during his leadership. It also included the successful party president, Jim Anderton and those close to him in the party organisation. The second was known as the “B Team.” It comprised those for whom winning was more important than policy. Each time Mr Rowling lost a by-election or a contest with Sir Robert Muldoon, his opponents multiplied. Finally, a replacement for Mr Rowling was found in David Lange. The divisions between these two camps were fundamental. They did not go away when Mr Lange replaced Mr Rowling — although they were hidden in the interests of the 1984 electoral success that allowed Mr Lange to close the rifts with the largesse of Cabinet posts, committee chairmanships, and overseas trips. In those halcyon days after the election success, the A Team

seemed to dwindle to only two members in Parliament — the newly elected Mr Anderton, now no longer president, and Helen Clark.

Charted new courses

With Mr Rowling out of Parliament and safely posted off to Washington as Ambassador the B Team moved swiftly to remove Mr John Wybrow as party chief executive and pack him off to Ottawa as High Commissioner.

The victory of Mr Lange and his cohorts was complete. Prominent A Team members moved on to the front benches — Geoffrey Palmer, David Caygill, and Russell Marshall. Other A Team members such as Ann Hercus and Stan Rodger also hold major portfolios. Then Rogernomics swept the country. Its policies have charted a new economic and social course for New Zealand under Roger Douglas, Richard Prebble, Mike Moore, and Michael Bassett.

Doubters within the party organisation were either swept aside or converted. B Team policies were in the ascendant and many A Team members switched to being fervent advocates.

Mr Anderton and Mrs Clark became lonely figures. Mrs Clark occupied herself with foreign affairs and defence matters —- perhaps the only major area in which the Labour Government adopted A Team policies.

As the sole economic critic within the party caucus, Mr Anderton has had a very difficult time. Many of the B team in the Cabinet were openly distrustful and critical of him; even the former A Team wished he would quietly go away. Now two years down the track, Mr Anderton and his policies

have weathered the storm. Labour is not going to repudiate Rogernomics but the overwhelming confidence that had been shown in it is starting to trickle away. Industrial relations are also providing a growing field for dispute. Again, Mr Anderton is seen as a focus for the return to A Team policies.

People in trouble

A number of party figures are starting to look as if they might be casualties of the divisions. The first is the Government’s research unit director, Rae Julian. The decision not to renew her contract seems to have been the result of a trade-off between the B Team and some A Team activists within the party hierarchy who wanted a more malleable person. Another likely casualty is Kerry Burke. He was an A Team member for whom the B Team had no love; now the employment situation and his employment strategy have cost him a lot of support.

For reasons that have much to do with A Team B Team inter-

play, he is an grave danger of not being returned to Cabinet if Labour wins next year. The targeting of his West Coast, electorate by the National Party is not helping him either. On the grounds, as Benjamin Franklin once said, that “if politicians don’t hang together they hang separately,” it is probable that the A Team and B team will try to keep their differences from public scrutiny. If Labour loses in 1987 they will burst forth on the night of election defeat; even if Labour wins the stresses will still cause some sort of explosion within Labour’s ranks.

It is even possible that a "Radical Labour Party” could split off if the main Labour Party continues to be unmoved by the anger its economic and industrial policies are arousing among traditional party backers. That would happen if the new coalition between working-class voters, urban liberals, and professional-business interests could not stand the stresses of a worsening economic recession. At present, the coalition is holding together, and it should stay intact for a while yet.

Policies have

to work

It all boils down to a crunch issue — will the B Team policies work? Mr Anderton is not likely to go the way of John A. Lee 45 years and ago and court political oblivion by leaving Labour altogether. It is more likely that he and those who think like him will stay inside to be available to pick up the pieces if that should prove necessary. The appearance of calm within the Labour Party is not deceptive. Labour is calm. But the fuse is ticking away...