Mr Nakasone stronger

Press, 9 July 1986, Page 16

Mr Nakasone stronger

An election to Japan’s Upper House, the House of Councillors, was due this month. The Prime Minister, Mr Nakasone, managed to have the House of Representatives dissolved, so that the two elections would be simultaneous. The advantage in having the elections together was that more voters were expected to turn out. The other important aspect was that if the Liberal Democratic Party won resoundingly then Mr Nakasone’s chances of persuading the L.D.P. to change its rules so that he could remain president of the party, and therefore Prime Minister for a third term, would be enhanced. Mr Nakasone was right in his judgment of the electorate. The L.D.P. has been returned to power with its biggest election victory. It controls both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors. In the previous Government, the L.D.P. was forced to rely on the votes of eight breakaway conservatives in the House of Representatives. Sunday’s election resulted not only in a clear majority for the L.D.P. in the Lower House, but a majority large enough for the L.D.P. to have chairmanship of all the committees. It remains to be seen whether the' victory will persuade the L.D.P. to change its rules. The LD.P.’s senior advisers were against an early election, yet the party won with such a majority; because of this Mr Nakasone’s reputation will be high. The gains were mainly at the expense of the Japan Socialist Party, which may now go through turmoil as it considers whether it has the policies to attract voters.

If Mr Nakasone remains as Prime Minister, then Japan seems likely to continue to give great weight to its relationship with the United States. It may be embroiled further in the East-West confrontation. Mr Nakasone has been an advocate of increased spending on defence. This has met with great favour from the United States, which has

been urging such a course on Japan for several years. The other likely emphasis is on higher production for the domestic market. Japan has met resistance to its drive for more exports to the United States and to the European Economic Community. The Japanese economy has been led by export growth. In future, more of the growth may come from domestic demand. Both China and South Korea are watching the way in which Japan is revising its history textbooks. A controversy about textbooks occurred in 1982. China and South Korea object to Japanese versions of particular events. Such matters as Japanese massacres were played down, or suggestions were made that they did not occur. The controversy this year has not intensified to the extent that it did in 1982, but the potential remains for Japan’s relations with these important neighbours to be soured. If Mr Nakasone has to step down in October, his successor may be the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr Abe. An Abe Government would be likely to give more emphasis to Asia. The outlook of South-East Asian nations towards Japan has undergone a significant change in the last decade. In 1974, the then Japanese Prime Minister, Mr Kakuei Tanaka, visited Bangkok and Jakarta, and was greeted with rioting because, of war memories. Now the countries of A.S.E.A.N. have been complaining that Japan does not take sufficient interest in the region. Mr Abe would be likely to give more emphasis to North-South relations, instead of Mr Nakasone’s East-West relations. The pressures from the A.S.E.A.N. countries are likely to continue whether it is Mr Nakasone or Mr Abe who leads the L.D.P. Mr Nakasone seems likely to lead Japan into being a more self-assertive member of the West. Mr Abe would lead Japan to consider the region more than it has done for a long time.