Philippines crisis took U.S. by surprise

Press, 25 February 1986, Page 8

Philippines crisis took U.S. by surprise

NZPA-Reuter Washington

The Philippines crisis has plunged President Reagan into one of the worst dilemmas of his Administration and United

States officials confess they are far from sure what to do. “We have ideas, but that doesn’t mean we are

at all sure what to do,” said a senior Administration official.

The Assistant Secretary of State for Asia and one of the key policy-makers on the Philippines, Mr Paul Wolfowitz, admitted at a congressional hearing that there was "no course of action now that does not entail some risks.”

A —former national security adviser to two Republican presidents, Mr Brent Scowcroft, put it more bluntly: “To most Americans, the existence of a problem implies the existence of a solution.

There may be no good solution to this problem.”

Officials admit the evolution of the Philippines crisis has taken Washington by surprise at each successive stage.

They make no secret in private of their desire to see Mr Marcos go. “But life isn’t as simple as that,” one said.

"There is more to this thing than Marcos. The manner of his leaving, if

he leaves, is terribly important,” he said. In public, senior Administration officials have been urging extreme caution over what one described as a terribly dangerous situation that had become Mr Reagan’s most

pressing foreign policy problem. They managed to avoid disclosing their policy options by sending the veteran negotiator, Mr Philip Habib, to Manila for a brief visit to help work

out a policy to deal with the crisis.

In private officials refuse to discuss possible United States reactions to the crisis. They are willing only to talk about the general principles involved in attempting to resolve a whole series of conflicting pressures. They say Washington wants to build on the widespread evidence the election showed of a Philippines hunger for democracy.

A failure to back moderates pushing for a solution could send vast numbers of recruits into the arms of the communist New People’s Army guerrillas whose war against Mr Marcos is growing at a speed that frightens Washington. “We obviously want to pressure Marcos, but not too much. He could take it all down with him,” one said.

Democracy, they argue, is the best defence against a communist takeover. Such a calamity, in Washington’s eyes, would be the only way it would lose access to the two huge United States bases in the Philippines, the officials say.

They argue that Subic Navy Base and Clark Air Force Base, the biggest outside the continental United States, are of such economic importance >to the Philippines that an Aquino Government

would not close them.

“Whenever Filipinos want to gain our attention they holler about closing the bases. It works, but we don’t think it’s a possibility, no matter how much agitation there is on the subject,” one said.

"It is not in our interests to see him (Mr Marcos) collapse in a violent revolution, nor is it in the interests of the moderates,” an official said. “We don’t want to do anything that might push it over the edge.” The officials insist that while Washington has influence in the Philippines, it is not as great as the Aquino camp believes or Congress implies. “Aquino hears the United States cavalry coming. She expects us to do something we can’t and the impression Congress gives of omnipotence encourages that,” an official said.

One option ruled out is a coup to get rid of Mr Marcos — “We’re not in that business any more, and anyway we want to see the Filipinos deal with the problem,” one official said.

Deep sighs and shrugs of the shoulders are the most common reactions to the question of what is to be done in the Philippines. “Anything short of Marcos’s departure is going to take great creativity,” according to one official.