Challenging Mr Marcos

Press, 24 February 1986, Page 12

Challenging Mr Marcos

Mr Ferdinand Marcos, of the Philippines, said during the recent presidential election campaign that there would be a military coup if his opponent, Mrs Corazon Aquino, won the election. Others suggested that the United States would encourage a military coup if Mr Marcos won on a rigged vote. Neither prediction of a coup has so far proved correct, but the resignations of the Defence Minister, Mr Juan Ponce Enrile, and the Acting Chief of Staff, Lieutenant-General Fidel Ramos, may be regarded as opening moves in a degree of military intervention in the politics of the Philippines. In withdrawing his support from Mr Marcos, General Ramos has not removed himself from his position as head of the Armed Forces. Mr Marcos, who is still President, may now appeal to the loyalty of the Armed Forces against the authority of General Ramos. If that happens, a substantial proportion of the Armed Forces will support Mr Marcos, just as a substantial proportion will support General Ramos. If Mr Marcos makes such an appeal, the result could be civil war.

Mr Marcos might have won the presidential election on February 7 had there been no fraud in the voting; no-one will ever know. Such evidence as exists suggests otherwise. American observers of the election estimated that Mrs Aquino had about 30 per cent of her supporters disfranchised by fraud and manipulation. Had she got those three million extra votes, she would have been ahead of Mr Marcos by a healthy margin. However, the science of estimating cheating in an election is not well developed and such precision may be suspect. Yet there is no doubt that fraud was widespread enough to make the election result invalid. The election outraged observers elsewhere and produced a frustration within the Philppines that has threatened to blow up. A suggestion that Mrs Aquino should take part in the Government with Mr Marcos never seemed realistic; Mrs Aquino’s supporters would have regarded that as a betrayal. If Mrs Aquino wanted to keep the support she gained during the campaign she had to keep up the momentum. Hence her call for rallies and strikes. She believed she had been cheated; many Filipinos believed she had been cheated. Even if she had accepted the official result of the election, little would have been resolved. The Communist Party of the Philippines would have been able to argue that the Philippines had tried the way of the ballot box and, this having failed, the only way left

was through armed struggle in the ranks of its New People’s Army, the military wing of the Communist Party. It would have been a hard argument to counter.

As it is, by resigning from the Government and calling for Mr Marcos to step down, Mr Enrile, the Defence Minister, and General Ramos have taken an action that has at least a dash of respect for constitutional proprieties. The Philippines will be lucky if it avoids civil war, but the two men have not acted in a way that will necessarily precipitate violence. If there is sustained fighting between supporters of Mr Marcos and Mrs Aquino, the New People’s Army is bound to make gains while Filipino fights Filipino. So far the New People’s Army is not known to have received significant support from abroad. The Soviet Union, with what appears to be a puzzling lack of concentration, is almost alone among foreign Governments in congratulating Mr Marcos on his victory. The Soviet Union gives the impression that it has not been keeping up with the play in the Philippines. The United States has undoubtedly been keeping up with the play. Suspicions will abound that it is helping to make the play. The United States has compelling reasons to want a stable and democratic regime in the Philippines. There has been strong American pressure on Mr Marcos to play fair, and plenty of American criticism of the fraud in the election. So far, there is no evidence of American intervention to encourage the rebellion against Mr Marcos. The divisions in the Armed Forces were already there and General Ramos had already shown himself to be concerned with the course of recent political events.

If Mr Enrile and General Ramos can engineer the resignation of Mr Marcos, then a new election should be held to confirm Mrs, Aquino’s position. She should not simply take over the Presidency. For one thing, there would still be doubts about whether she had been fairly elected. For another, it would leave Mrs Aquino unduly beholden to the Armed Forces.

Corruption is endemic in the Philippines. Mr Marcos should not retain office because he won a corrupt election; and Mrs Aquino should not take office because she lost a corrupt election. If Mrs Aquino, or anyone else, is to reform political behaviour in the Philippines, the authority through which this is done ought not be have been acquired through falsified voting or military intervention, however well intentioned.