It’s a whole new ball game

Press, 16 January 1986, Page 17

It’s a whole new ball game

Edward Kennedy’s abrupt withdrawal from the 1988 presidential stakes has changed the whole complexion of American politics over the next three years. For the Democrats it means that a new generation of politicians, mostly under the age of 50, will be thrust into the nomination battleground several years earlier than had been anticipated. For the Republicans, the Kennedy departure and the generation gap it opens will lead to renewed questions as to whether staid old George Bush, Reagan’s vice-presi-dent — a mediocre television and stump performer — is the right man at 61 to carry the Republican Party’s standard. The removal of Senator Kennedy from the ranks of Democratic hopefuls is significant in a number of ways. The very presence of the Kennedy name, let alone his position as front-runner in the opinion polls, has been a strong disincentive to many rivals. As the flagcarrier for the liberal wing of the party, despite recent attempts to re-package himself, the Senator’s presence was always likely to put

off those with the same philosophical bent.

As a result, politicians such as Governor Mario Cuomo of New York, who so stirred the delegates to the San Francisco convention with his defence of traditional Democratic values in 1984, have been inclined to keep their intentions under wraps. But with Kennedy out, Governor Cuomo will now be forced by the pace of declarations — Senator Gary Hart has made his intentions known — to show his hand earlier. Whatever the merits of a Cuomo candidacy, his Italian origins are certain to prove a problem: in the South, for instance, he will not be able to brush aside questions so easily by saying his re-election as governor next year is his first priority. Another politician who will be forced to make up his mind by the Kennedy move will be Senator Joseph Biden of Delaware. If politics is about returning favours, then Senator Biden, a tall, slim 43-year-old with 13 years in the Senate, would almost certainly have been Teddy’s choice in 1981.

In an impassioned speech from the Senate floor, it was Mr Biden who convinced his colleagues that Kennedy was “to Hispanics and blacks the embodiment of hope” and should be allowed to retain his senior position on more than two committees in the face of a change of rules.

Mr Biden, like Cuomo, also benefits on one other count: he is a terrific speaker who can wow an audience. As the media consultant, Bob Squier, put it recently: “He’s already in the finals with Mario Cuomo,” and that as an extemporaneous speaker, “he leaves Ted Kennedy in the dust.” He also knows how to perform on television, projecting "visual outrage,” Squier told the “Washingtonian Magazine.”

Another Liberal Democrat who will be directly affected by the Kennedy move will be the Rev. Jesse Jackson. Until now he has been contemplating a third party race in 1988, believing that Kennedy would be the magnet, as his family has always been, for the poor and underprivelged within the Democratic ranks. With Kennedy

out of the way, Jackson can work from inside.

While he may have little chance of the nomination, he can again be a vote-splitter in the primaries and a power-broker at the convention, causing all sorts of problems for a party not used to dealing with his often dramatic gestures. More importantly, the Kennedy departure will allow the party to focus on new wave Democrats with different views and an ability, perhaps, to reclaim the Western and Southern states from the Republican stranglehold. Senator Gary Hart, who already was running Kennedy a close second in all the most recent polls, now assumes the mantle of front-runner. At 47, he has had the experience of a powerful run at the nomination in 1984, in which he was able to sweep New England and his native West by expounding a range of ideas from military reform to the high-tech economy. But he also carries the frontrunner status round his neck like a lead weight. This was disastrous for Ed Muskie in 1972, and for the late Hubert Humphrey and Henry

Jackson in 1976 when Jimmy Carter came from nowhere. Walter Mondale was almost caught in 1984 by Hart.

Nevertheless, the Hart brand of Democratic politics, with its con-, centration on sensible defences, fiscal reality, and social conscience can prove amazingly successful in the right hands. No-one has been able to make it work better than Charles Robb, best known outside the United States as Lyndon Johnson’s son-in-law. In November, Robb scored a dramatic political triumph in Virginia which gave new hope to his party. The ticket he backed romped home in Virginia — possibly the most conservative state in the nation. He brought together important elements of the Democratic coalition — a black lieuten-ant-governor and a female attor-ney-general — and produced a stunning victory despite President Reagan’s strong support for the Republican alternative. Governor Robb’s ability to balance the budget in the state while bringing a record number of blacks

into his administration and government has earned him plaudits from the top of the party downwards. It now makes him a formidable, if young challenger, for the presidency should he be persuaded to run rather than wait for a Senate seat which will not fall vacant until 1988.

Other young governors who might also be hearing the tones of “Hail To The Chief’ in their ears include Bruce Baditt of Arizona and Michael Dukasis of Massachusetts, who was barred by a misfortune of geography from challenging when Kennedy was in the race. In Congress, Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey and Republican Richard Gephardt of Missouri — both exponents of tax reform — are among potential new wave challengers. The biggest loser in all this manoeuvring may well be the Reaganless Republican Party. In the struggle over the balanced budget and tax reform which has dominated the headlines in the United States, the divisions in the Republican ranks have been an embarrassing public display. In such circumstances the Republicans could have counted on Kennedy to act as a lightning conductor — to unify the ©position against a Kennedy-led ticket. Now the 1988 race has been blasted wide open, the Democrats have the choice among a wide range of attractive if somewhat inexperienced young candidates, or they could possibly — if things start to go badly — turn to an

outsider such as Mr Lee laccocca of the Chrysler company, who has his own strong constituency among the American people but has avoided any comment on his political ambitions. The Republicans are more or less stuck with Vice-President Bush as their front-runner, with Representative Jack Kemp challenging

him from the Right and Republican Senate majority leaders. Howard Baker, now retired, and Robert Dole, the incumbent, coming at him from the centre of the party. Among this group, only Kemp has shown anything like the Reagan magic with the Party loyalists. It is going to be a long and arduous campaign.