Population forecast

Press, 16 December 1985, Page 2

Population forecast

PA Wellington New Zealand’s population is unlikely to reach four million by the year 2000, according to a report from the Planning Council.

The natural population increase through births replacing people who have died has fallen from 40,000 a year in the early 1960 s to 26,000 a year since 1981.

Birth rates among the non-Maori population dropped below replacement levls and Maori births have dropped rapidly in the last decade to just above replacement. The year ending March, 1985, also brought a net loss of permanent resi-

dents. The report, "New Zealand Population: Trends and their Policy Implications,” said that even if there were a net immigration of 5000 people a year for the next 15 years the population would not reach 3.75 million by the year 2000. The planners said the main factor was a changing age composition in the population. The number of people aged in their early 40s is rapidly increasing, followed by a larger number in their 30s. This is followed by an age group with the largest number it has ever had in New Zealand’s history — the 15 to

29-year-olds. Below this age group the numbers are much smaller.