Tight finish expected in Cereal 85

Press, 6 December 1985, Page 22

Tight finish expected in Cereal 85

From the plot with the lowest cost inputs so far to that with the highest, nearly all the farmers in the 1.C.1. Cereal 85 competition have a chance of posting the highest net return per hectare at harvest. The competition is more wide open at this time of the year than any of the last three wheat competitions and the 66mm of rain which fell in the week of the field days, last Wednesday and Thursday, has set this year’s test up for a close finish. Who would be a wheat growing competition organiser? With unseasonal rain for three full days before the

field days, sometimes heavy rain driving horizontally across the Lincoln College cropping farm and mud up to the axles on all the alleyways between the exhibitors, on Wednesday the committee must have needed its collective strength and wisdom of 17 to keep going. But Thursday dawned mostly bright and clear and by the afternoon only the ground covering of porridge and some lodged wheat taking a rest in the middle of many plots were evidence of the deluge.

As the day brightened, the expert comments on. the guided tours repeatedly em-

phasised the considerable variety of approach to and perhaps consequent closeness of the contest.

So the organisers can take a bow for allowing irrigation into the competition for the first time; wheat breeders can take a bow for producing such a range of quality cultivars; and the competitors can take a big bow for doing their own thing and not copying their next door neighbour. Dr Warwick Scott, of the Plant Science department of Lincoln College, who makes predictions on the contest by studying the entrails of wheat heads, must surely be on target to retain his per-

feet record of never picking the winner. But his char-acter-building counting of dry matter, ears, spikelets and grains at this stage of the contest has generated a range of yield guesstimates between 4.7 tonnes and 7.8 tonnes a ha for all 10 plots.

However, as is designed in this highest net return competition (and not highest yield) the competitors with the lowest inputs and the lowest yield guesstimates have chances of winning as good as those with plenty of ground preparation, fertiliser, chemicals, water and wheat. s

The two front runners for yield on Dr Scott’s figures

are Bruce Lovett, of Ashburton Forks and Sinclair Hughes, of Springston, both of whom are looking at 7.8 tonnes and have irrigated three times for at least 150 mm applied. But Mr Lovett has grown Oroua, one of the highest quality and therefore highest returning wheats, while Mr Hughes has grown Advantage, a lower quality milling cultivar. Mr Hughes also has the highest costs in the competition to date, at $768 a ha.

Along with a few other plots on the college side of the competition site, Mr Hughes has a phalaris (canary grass) problem which may limit wheat yield. Up to 2000 kg dry matter of phalaris, an amount equivalent to about 20 per cent of the average wheat dry matter count in mid-November, is competing for goodies with the wheat although its seed will not upset the wheat harvest quality. Sinclair Hughes and the Nordean syndicate (Graham Marr of Mt Hutt and Norman and Philip Thomas of Christchurch) have sprayed with Hoegrass for the phalaris, which at better than $BO a ha applied is by bar the most expensive agehemieal input.

The luck of the draw was Mr Hughes’ only consolation for being on the expensive receiving end of the infestation, said Dr Scott and Mr Bede McCloy, agronomist with the South Island Barley Society and one of the competition organisers. The phalaris problem has been present in paddock A 9-10 on the cropping farm (the competition site) for some years, as visitors to the last two cropping farm walks will remember. But that it should be so selective in its effect on competitors

does raise the question of whether the Hoegrass cost should be disregarded. It is something that will have to be left to the wise 17.

Dr Scott included an Oroua-type grain weight of 35 grams in Mr Hughes’ Advantage calculations, something that is sure to irritate the proponents of Advantage, because barley yellow dwarf virus has infected about 20 per cent of the plot. The effect of the virus, brought by a high infestation of aphids, is expected to be a lower overall grain size because of a larger amount of screenings and consequently a 10 per cent reduction in potential yield. It is the first time in the history of the competition that B.Y.D.V. has been bad.

Mr Hughes explained at the field days that he didn’t spray for aphid control because he didn’t know that it would be necessary. The lack of an insecticide application at the opportune time in early August, at the cost of only $lO to $2O a ha, may well have cost him the highest yielding plot honours, if not the net return competition. Mr Lovett has incurred $725 in costs to date, his direct drilling costs and greater irrigation expenses only partially offsetting the extra that Mr Hughes spent on Hoegrass. The only other entrant with costs over the $7OO mark so far is Geoff and lan Scott, of Mitcham, who are apparently leading for a 7 tonne crop of Weka under irrigation, according to Dr Scott.

Two other entrants with higher-quality wheats are Peter and Ann Robinson (Horrelville) growing Otane and who have incurred $670 so far to yield a potential

6.1 tonnes and David Bell (Winchmore) growing Oroua with $670 in costs and 6.4 tonnes estimated yield. Although their costs are more moderate their yields are down also. It is evident from this year’s competition that you get the yield you pay for. Aiming for more than 10 tonnes per ha of Abele (a non-milling wheat) is the Ravensdown Fertiliser Cooperative Ltd, which has bravely thrown on every fertiliser and chemical available to a maximum wheat yield demonstration plot.'lt has boosted costs to $lOO7 a ha so far by using nitrogen super at drilling plus Dasanit insecticide to control grass grub; urea; Fetrilon Combi green with Ekatin; ammonium sulphate; potassium chloride; foliar Nitrophoska; several irrigations; Hoegrass; Glean; Cycdcel and Corbel. Even at $230 a tonne for the Abele, Ravensdown should do more than $2300 a ha in gross return from which about $llOO total costs including harvesting will have to be deducted. The resultant $l2OO a ha net return will not be far below the $l3OO which it will probably take to win the competition, as it has in the last two years.