Tension high in National

Press, 14 October 1985, Page 2

Tension high in National

from front page

It raises questions about how long Mr McLay can survive as leader. There is no mood within his caucus to replace him now or in the immediate future. In a very real sense he is being seen by his colleagues as but a caretaker leader.

Given that it is less than a year since his party made him leader, those who supported him do not wish to be seen as admitting to a mistake by replacing him so soon. But some of them are thinking about it. It may be that he will survive as leader until the next General Election, whenever that may be. If he does, with his popularity rating still below 10 per cent, it will be because his colleagues do not think they can win the next election no matter who leads them.

Unless his popularity improves, and National gets ahead of Labour in the polls and stays there, he is unlikely to be allowed to lead National into an election.

One tactic being advanced within his caucus is to do what the Australian Labour Party did when Mr Malcolm Fraser called an election. That was promptly to drop the leader, elect a new one — in that case Mr Bob Hawke — and hope to

sweep into office on the popular support a new leader always attracts. Should that happen, Mr Bolger would lead National into an election, being the obvious heir apparent. Mr Bolger has not been disloyal to Mr McLay, and so would not have embedded hostility from Mr McLay’s closest supporters; he is provincial while Mr McLay is metropolitan, and provincial concerns are dominating National more and more.

Whatever he may have done or not have done, Mr Bolger is more in the mainstream of New Zealand life. He has a large family, a great asset in a party that claims to stand for family values.

Finally, Mr .Bolger has not made the mistakes Mr McLay is perceived to have made. Whether such a perception is fair to Mr McLay, it is how he is perceived. After more than a year in Opposition, the tensions within National are straining to breaking point. These tensions have been caused by the conflict being fought out over policy, to reflect provincial concerns, or to reflect metropolitan concerns; by the conflict over a free-market or regulated economy; and by the unresolved conflict between the former leader and the present leader.