Life after 2000

Press, 16 August 1985, Page 23

Life after 2000

By

BARBARA MOFFET,

National

Geographic News Service

Internal travelling in the future could be a breeze. All that would be needed is a very long tunnel. With the air pumped out to eliminate resistance, electromagnets could pull trains through as fast as 22,400 kilometres an hour. A trip from New York to Los Angeles, through such a tunnel, would take only 21 minutes. “We might slow it down to 4800 or 6400 kilometres an hour for a more comfortable ride, but it would still take only an hour, with stops in Chicago and Dallas,” says a proponent of the idea, Professor Frank P. Davidson of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineers have the know-how to build such a supersonic subway, Professor Davidson says, while acknowledging a financial stumbling block: a tunnel across the country. Advocates of a different technology — high-speed rail — are not in the same high-speed league, but they are just as serious. Theirs is another of the ideas — some futuristic, some old-fashioned, many very costly — that abound for next century’s transportation. A Seattle travel agency is looking ahead. It plans to offer tours of space before the year 2000, starting with a three-day, 48-orbit whirl on the shuttle. Two or three decades later, the agency hopes to sponsor moon landings for tourists. “By 2030 or 2040, a vehicle might dock at a space hotel, where people could stay for three to five days for scientific lectures,” forecasts T. C. Swatz, who says his travel agency has received thousands of queries from would-be space travellers. Some ideas for the future have been around the block before. Marvin Cetron, president of Forecasting Internatioinal of Arlington, Virginia, believes the dirigible will return to pleasure travel. Paul Brown of the United States Department of Energy thinks the electric car will finally get cranked up, after battery technology is perfected. “Gas prices are bound to rise again and make the electric car look good,” he says. What is down the road for transportation in the future: AUTOMOBILES - A century without cars? Not very likely. “The automobile is not quite as hardy as the cockroach, but it’s pretty close. It’s likely to be here well after we’re gone,” predicts Dr James Womack of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who is coauthor of “The Future of the Automobile.”

But, in many ways, twenty-first-century cars will look and feel

different. “If, in the past, we celebrated the power of engines, with long hoods that bulged, and today it’s the wonder of technology, with electronic diodes and readouts, the future car will emphasise the human — his safety and comfort,” suggests Jerry Hirshberg, director of design for Nissan Design International, Inc. Car designers say that increased concern about fuel savings will make cars more aerodynamic — sculptured, smooth vehicles whose surfaces will blend almost seamlessly. Though they may not be much smaller, future cars will go the way of some beer — “light” — as plastics and other new materials take over from metal. Heat-toler-ant ceramics, originally developed for space vehicles, will be used in turbine and other unconventional engines, opening up a range of alternative fuels.

Before 2000, a computer will be watching over the engine and other systems — smoothing gear shifting, anticipating bumps, diagnosing mechanical problems. Radar linked to brakes will head off collisions, car manufacturers predict, and an onboard infrared device may highlight darkened roads. A video display terminal, for navigation maps as well as communication, will be as standard as the dashboard radio. “The car will be an investment in communications technology,” says Oliver McCarter, executive engineer for General Motors. The car itself will become a “biomechanical extension” of the

driver, says Jerry Hirshberg of Nissan. As a driver slides his key into the ignition, the preprogrammed seat, mirrors, pedals, and control will adjust to his dimension, enhancing safety. If he’s too drunk to drive, the ignition may not respond at all. If he dozes off while driving, a skin-sensitive steering wheel will detect lapse in attention and set off an alert.

Yet all of that may be unnecessary when the driverless car rolls out of the factory. Only a concept today, this future car would use artificial vision to take the driver’s place, at least for simple errands. “You could tell it, ‘Bosco, take the kids to choir practice, and when you return, drive around for a while; I want some free time’,” suggests Dr Womack of M.I.T.

MASS TRANSIT - If certain dreams for the future come true, there will be subways and buses serving cities that now have none, as well as “people movers” and P.R.T.s — personal rapid transit. Some commuters by car will leave the driving to a computer as an automated roadway guides cars to work.

In the biggest mass transit boom since the early 1900 s, cities across the land are laying the groundwork for their transportation futures. “About 50 United States cities have plans for mass transit systems in

Computer to do driving