National in lead over Labour, says poll

Press, 24 June 1985, Page 1

National in lead over Labour, says poll

National is in the lead over Labour for the first time since February, 1984, according to a survey during the week before the Timaru by-election.

Intending voters in the latest “New Zealand Herald”-National Research Bureau survey gave 43 per cent support to National and 41 per cent to Labour. The figures reflect opinion throughout New Zealand and not in any particular electorate. But the Timaru by-election-night figure of 42.65 per cent for National matches almost exactly the finding of 43 per cent throughout the country. By contrast, Labour’s New Zealand' standing of 41 per cent in the survey is well above its by-election-night figure of 35.68 per cent in Timaru. Apparently at Labour’s expense, the beneficiaries in the by-election were the

New Zealand Party, which scored 13.82 per cent at Timaru and 10 per cent throughout the country, and the Social Credit Party, whose figures were 7.46 per cent at Timaru and 6 per cent nationally. The “Herald”-N.R.B. survey was held between June 7 and June 14. It covered 2000 eligible voters selected by random probability methods from the country’s 20 main population centres. People were asked: “If an election had been held yesterday, which party would you have voted for?” The answers of intending voters are compared with responses in other polls and with the voting at the 1984 General Election.

June Feb Dec Oct July June Apr Feb Dec Sep July May ’B5 ’B4 ’B4 ’B4 Elec ’B4 84 84 83 83 83 83 %%%%%% % % % Tn t ohnnr 41 44 44 48 43 48 41 36 38 37 48 48 National 43 42 39 33 36 36 38 40 35 45 43 41 nl ’Party 10 8 10 13 12 7 14 18 18 - - Social Credit 6 ? 6 6 8 8 6 5 8 11 8 10 All others _ i 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 * * 1

Thirteen per cent of eligible voters were uncommitted (that is, they said they would not vote, or did not know, or refused to say which party they would vote for), as compared with the same proportion in February and a 9 per cent non-vote in the July, 1984, General Election. The poll figures are subject to a maximum statistical sampling error of plus or minus 2 per cent. Social Credit’s intended change of name to the New Zealand Democratic Party had no effect on the findings. Respondents replied verbally to the question without being shown any written material. The interviewers accepted either name and recorded it under the one heading. Of 1984 Labour voters, 85 per cent would remain loyal (as compared with 87 per cent in February), 8 per cent would switch to National (9 per cent), 6 per cent to the New Zealand Party (2 per cent) and 1 per cent to Social Credit (2 per cent).

Of 1984 National voters, 93 per cent would remain loyal (91 per cent in February ), 3 per cent would switch to Labour (8 per cent), 3 per cent to the New Zealand Party (1 per cent), and 1 per cent to Social Credit (nil). Of 1984 New Zealand Party voters, 52 per cent would remain loyal (51 per cent in February), 25 per cent would switch to National (unchanged), 21 per cent to Labour (23 per cent), 1 per cent to Social Credit (unchanged) and 1 per cent to all others (nil). Of 1984 Social Credit voters, 60 per cent would remain loyal (57 per cent in February), 21 per cent would switch to National (22 per cent), 15 per cent to Labour (17 per cent) and 4 per cent to the New Zealand Party (3 per cent). The switching of votes leaves the four main parties, and the uncommitted group, with support derived as follows:

Comes from Labour % Present Support for National N.Z. Party Si ocial Credit Un % committed % % % ' ’84 Labour voters 80 7 21 9 32 ’84 National voters 2 76 9 6 12 ’84 N.Z. Party voters 6 7 57 2 6 ’84 Social Credit 74 5 voters ’84 All other 3 3 3 2 voters 1 1 — Non voters in ’84 4 3 3 5 40 Newly eligible y 4 3 voters 4 3 Cnnuriaht. 1985 — "New Zealand TOMORROW: The politicians most favHerald" oured as Prime Minister.