Hopes over Afghanistan

Press, 22 June 1985, Page 18

Hopes over Afghanistan

For the first time since the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, there seems to be a small chance of a negotiated settlement. Any settlement would come none too soon. Apart from the killing and damage being done in Afghanistan itself, the Soviet thrust to stop the supplies of troops and weapons from the border of Afghanistan with Pakistan has resulted in raids outside Afghanistan. Pakistan is not threatened as a country, but the raids on the border at least threaten to make the war more extensive. If that happens, it would be difficult to know how many other countries would become involved. China and the United States would almost certainly try to ensure that Pakistan is not put under any serious threat. Pakistan is already host to 3 million refugees from Afghanistan and could hardly expel them if it wanted to. Any solution to the war must take account of these people. The Soviet Union has many reasons for wanting an end to the war. Chief among them is the wearying effect of the war on the Soviet Union. About 115,000 Soviet troops are in Afghanistan. To win the war, and not simply hold the towns, many more would be needed. Service in Afghanistan is not a favourite choice for Soviet soldiers and the casualties of this unpopular war stir resentment at home. The continued occupation is damaging the Soviet Union’s reputation around the world. The Soviet Union was startled by the international condemnation with which its invasion was received. It has long wanted a way out. Another reason is that the continued occupation spoils much chance of an improved relationship either with the United States or with China. The invasion of Afghanistan turned President Carter firmly against the Soviet Union and effectively brought to an end a period of detente. The invasion, occupation, and war against Afghan rebels has helped to sustain American condemnations of the Soviet Union during the two Reagan Administrations. The talks at present being conducted between the Soviet Union and the United States are not solely about Afghanistan, but that subject is on the agenda. If the Soviet Union is prepared both to talk with the United States about

Afghanistan and to engage once more in the talks sponsored by the United Nations, which have been in abeyance since 1983, there is some reason to hope that the Soviet Union wants a solution soon. The Soviet Union could just pack up and go home. However that would be to admit defeat and possibly to see the defeat of the Communist Government in Afghanistan. If that Government were defeated, any Government in Afghanistan would almost certainly be hostile to the Soviet Union. To the Soviet Union, this would not be an acceptable reward for its long years of war. What type of Government would be acceptable? The Soviet Union has huge land frontiers and a variety of arrangements with its neighbours. In most of Europe, its immediate neighbours are members of the Warsaw Pact, and the Soviet Union shows no sign of tolerating much independent thinking from the countries which lie between it and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation countries. There is also a group of countries in which Soviet interest and influence have long been acknowledged but which are not bound as closely to the Soviet Union as the Warsaw Pact countries. These include Finland and Afghanistan. In some other adjacent or nearby countries, including Sweden, Austria, Yugoslavia, and North Korea, Soviet interests are deemed important, but less so. A few Countries which have borders with the Soviet Union, particuarly China, are considered to be downright hostile. The Soviet Union, at the very least, will want Afghanistan to remain friendly. It should not be vital to Soviet interests that Afghanistan remain compliant. A tacit acknowledgement of that point by the United States and the countries of the area will make it all the easier for the Soviet troops to go home. Publicly, this would probably be at the behest of Afghanistan’s Government, which would need assurance that the rebels within Afghanistan, and in Pakistan, will not continue to get outside support. The rebels, in turn, and the refugees would need a guarantee of safe return home. It is all a matter of appearances at one level, especially for the Soviet Union; at another, someone has to guarantee a fair deal for the people of Afghanistan.