Economies expanding

Press, 15 May 1985, Page 38

Economies expanding

NZPA-AP New York The world’s major non-com-munist economies are showing encouraging growth, with Australia, Japan and Taiwan leading the way, a New York based research organisation

says. The leading economic indices of the Pacific nations, led by Japan and Taiwan, are continuing to climb faster than those of the United States, Canada and Western Europe, the Conference Board said in its monthly international economic scoreboard.

japan is out in front, with its leading index advancing at a 9 per cent annual rate, the board said. It is followed by Taiwan at 6 per cent, and Australia and Britain 5 per cent each.

The leading indices show a 3 per cent annual growth rate in France, 2 per cent in the United States, Canada and Italy. West Germany lags with a 1 per cent growth rate.

The centre also publishes economic performance indices for each country that reflect present rather than future economic activity. These in-

dices include such items as current factory production levels and employment rates.

Australia shows the highest performance rating with a 7 per cent, annual growth rate. It is followed by Japan with 6 per cent West Germany 5 per cent, Taiwan 4 per cent, the United States, Canada and Italy each 3 per cent and Britain 1 per cent. The rating for France was zero.

The leading indices are composed of various indicators such as building permits, factory purchase orders and other items that tend to predict the level of economic activity several months in the future.

The Conference Board is an independent research organisation supported by corporations, labour organisations and academic centres around the world.

The indices are compiled monthly for the board by the centre for the international business cycle research at the business school of Columbia University in New York. Mr Geoffrey Moore, director of the centre, said “the most encouraging signal from the

latest readings is that widespread growth is under way.” “Although the pace of advance is slow in Europe and North America, the leading indices for each of the nine countries are pointing toward further expansion.” The indices are based on February statistics for the United States and Taiwan, December figures for Italy and France, and on January figures for the other countries. In a separate study, the board’s economic forum predicted that the United States economy will register moderate economic growth in 1985 and that a modest expansion will continue into 1986. The consensus of forum members — 12 prominent American economists — was that the American economy as measured by gross national product, will grow about 3 per cent this year. Mr Edgar Fiedler, chairman of the forum, warned, however, that most members of the group “see serious risks of trouble in later years unless politically painful discipline can be exercised to curb massive federal budget deficits.”