N.Z. N-stance may cause A.S.E.A.N. go-slow

Press, 8 May 1985, Page 30

N.Z. N-stance may cause A.S.E.A.N. go-slow

By

DAVID PORTER

of NZPA Jakarta New Zealand’s antinuclear stance could cause some Association of SouthEast Asian Nation members to go slow on their own nuclear weapon-free zone policy for fear of sending the wrong signals at a time when regional balance of power needed to be preserved, an influential Indonesian! analyst told reporters in Jakarta. A.N.Z.U.S. helped safeguard the region’s southern

flank and enabled the countries to concentrate on the domestic, economic, and policital developments that were their principal concerns, Dr Jusuf Wanandi, executive director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies told New Zealand reporters during an interview in Jakarta in March.

“We have been explaining (to the United States) that this nuclear weapon-free zone is a long-term idea,” he said.

“We are going on that in a step-by-step approach but because of the new element due to New Zealand’s position, I think we will slow down our efforts for a Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone,” he said.

Indonesia has long been a proponent of making SouthEast Asia a Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality, but the proposal has fallen into abeyance since the December, 1978, invasion of Kampuchea by Vietnam and its subsequent occupation. “Z.O.P.F.A.N. and N.W.F.Z. relate also to the movement of arms control and the movement towards a certain balance,” said Dr Wanandi.

“Before that happens, let us be realistic, we can have a free and independent policy but the fact is there are super-powers who have nuclear weapons and they have better be in balance instead of not.”

Asked when the appropriate time to take initiatives on creating nuclear weapons free areas was, Dr Wanandi said it depended on how the relationship with the super-powers developeed. “Because we may talk ad

nauseum about what we want, but if they don’t want to follow or abide by it, or agree upon it, then what are you going to do about it?” The C.S.I.S. was set up by an Indonesian Minister in 1971 and had strong ties to the Suharto regime which took power in 1966, although it was funded through a private foundation, he said. Diplomatic observers in Jakarta said the institute

was probably less influen-

tial now than in the 1970 s but that it still had a substantial input into Government economic, defence and foreign affairs strategy. Dr Wanandi, the centre’s most prominent analyst who regularly comments on regional affairs, said New Zealand had a role in the stability of the A.S.E.A.N. region, mainly through the A.N.Z.U.S. pact but also through the South Pacific Forum.

“If we talk about the A.N.Z.U.S. role of New Zealand, then for us its importance is that because of the arrangement Indonesia does not have to worry about its southern flank and instead can concentrate on its northern and western flanks,” he said.

The possibility of an external threat, which in Indonesia’s opinion was secondary, was that it was coming from the north “if it is coming.”

Jakarta has a better relationship with Hanoi than the other A.S.E.A.N. countries, diplomatic observers said, with some Indonesian military analysts regarding it as a useful buffer to China, regarded by them as Indonesia’s greatest potential long-term threat.

Dr Wanandi said Indonesia, which is the A.S.E.A.N. appointed liason country with Vietnam over Kampuchea, had so far failed to persuade it to see its occupation was an econommic as well as a political mistake.

Asked whether New Zealand’s position would affect stability in the region, Dr Wanandi said he believed it had already helped fuel Australia’s anti-nuclear climate.

“Second, it could influence definitely the position of Japan at a later stage which is more worrying for us,” he said. “And at a later state ... it could affect the

North Atlantic Treaty Organisation alliance in Western Europe.” The A.N.Z.U.S. row had also affected the United States/A.S.E.A.N. relationship, said Dr Wanandi, with the United States Assistant Secretary of State, Mr Paul Wolfowitz, recently seeking clarifiaction of its N.W.F.Z policy and how this coulc affect public opinion in the region.

Asked how far the proposal for a South-East Asiar N.W.F.Z. — proposed lasi year by Malaysia and supported by A.S.E.A.N. — hac got, Dr Wanandi said it was at the very early stages. “The problem is of course that we would like to have a Zone of Peace, Freedom, and Neutrality. “But that got bogged down because of the Kampuchean issue so then we picked up this N.W.F.Z. idea in the middle of last year when New Zealand had not really started the A.N.Z.U.S. bail-game rolling. “We thought you would still find a way out, a compromise,” said Dr Wanandi, who indicated he thought a “Japanese-style” compromise, of accepting the United States word that no ship carrying nuclear weapons would be sent, could still be reached. But New Zealand had not and therefore it had made “a completely new ballgame” said Dr Wanandi. “And so we don’t want to push this idea too fast because it could give the wrong signals.” The United States was pushing very hard on A.S.E.A.N.’s N.W.F.Z. idea -

“because they think if the New Zealand problem has not been solved and then we are coming and pushing very hard on this N.W.F.Z. on top and then of course public opinion in Japan will pick it up and will not leave it alone and then they (the United States) will have another ball-game to play. “That means a diminishing of United States presence for sure in South-East Asia.

“One main problem is, of course, there must be balance to make deterrence credible and to have a certain stability in this region, and a certain balance means if one side is present, the other side must be too.”

No-one could escape the nuclear umbrella, he said. It existed globally. As long as the regional environment remained stable, the A.S.E.A.N. countries could concentrate on the domestic economic and political matters which were their principal concerns.

“There is an awareness in Indonesia that our main problems are really domestic, for at least the next 10 years.”

As long as the external environment was stable, Indonesia and the other A.S.E.A.N. countries (Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Brunei) would not have to divert resources to hardware against possible foreign invasion, he said.

“That (stability) is what will be missing, according to me, if one of the elements, A.N.Z.U.S., is missing.”