War risk not high, says report

Press, 6 March 1985, Page 11

War risk not high, says report

NZPA-Reuter Washington War between the United States and the Soviet Union was no more likely now than in the last 40 years, but future policy could not be based on an assumption that nuclear deterrence would continue to work, a new report said yesterday. The probability of nuclear war occurring in Europe was low, but it called for measures to improve deterrence and reduce instability. The report, “Reducing the Risk of Nuclear War,” was issued by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, of Georgetown University, and represented the consensus of a diverse

group of Government and non-Government national security experts. “The likelihood of direct armed conflict between the super-Powers today appears not much greater than it was for most of the last 40 years and indeed substantially lower than it was during several episodes of heightened tension and crisis during that period,” the report said. Nuclear war had been averted despite disturbing trends, including the erosion of American deterrence credibility and a more assertive Soviet Union. Looking ahead, “we cannot base our policies on the

assumption that deterrence is inherently stable.” There was no “quick fix” to avert nuclear war. “We cannot expect our nuclear dilemma to be solved once and for all by some far-reaching arms control agreement, by a military show-down with our principal adversary, by the negotiated reconciliation of all our political and ideological differences, by the internal collapse of the U.S.S.R. or by an invisible shield that will protect us from nuclear attack,” the report said, in a reference to the “star wars” missile defence plan. It called for firm Presi-

dential leadership to steer a sound course between sharp swings in policy towards the Soviet Union. A missile defence system that could protect American and allied populations with “tolerably low leak rates” did not now appear to be a realistic possibility. “We should be realistic” about the extent of strategic nuclear arms reductions that could be negotiated soon. The report called for efforts in Europe to strengthen the conventional defences of the N.A.T.O. allies and chided them for insufficient readiness to share the economic burden.

To improve deterrence and reduce instabilities, N.A.T.O. battlefield nuclear weapons should be pulled back significantly from the border between the two Germanies and the focus put on survivable, longrange systems, it said. Also, as clear a separation as possible should be made between nuclear and conventional weapons. The report said that N.A.T.O. should move towards a policy of increasing its conventional forces and shaping its nuclear capability “so as to make clear that the decision to use nuclear weapons could be deferred a significant time.”