National may change leader by Christmas

Press, 14 November 1984, Page 1

National may change leader by Christmas

By

PATRICIA HERBERT

in Wellington

Mr Jim McLay will almost certainly have replaced Sir Robert Muldoon as leader of the National Party by Christmas, according to caucus sources.

The issue will definitely be resolved this year, perhaps this month and by December 20 at the latest,: they say. Highest estimates put Mr McLay’s support at within three votes of a clear first ballot majority but some quibbled at this figure, arguing that it was too generous and that no-one was counting heads yet. However, Mr McLay is generally regarded as the hot. favourite in a threehorse race with Mr Jim Bolger and Mr George Gair. Mr Gair’s support is probably strongest among members of Parliament. He appeals to them because he has the backing of the party. Mr Bolger may, however, have , a larger following in the caucus and has risen to a new prominence since the Budget because it hammered some farmers and he has a rural back-, ground. Against this is the fact 1 that he has modelled himself on Sir Robert and National desperately needs to break with Sir Robert’s style of leadership. It also needs to win back the urban' liberal vote and Mr Bolger has little appeal in ‘ the cities. Sir Robert is not expected ■ to stand although he has been hinting recently that he is under pressure from

“thousands” of supporters to do so. His Parliamentary colleagues have interpreted these remarks • as an attempt to bolster his credibility as Leader of the Opposition for the Budget de- • bate and do not think he has moved, from his July state- ' ment that he was "unlikely to be a candidate” when the leadership was next viewed.Increasingly,.. they have .come to accept this as ' meaning that he will not put himself forward, particularly as he has been told he' can expect to win only four ' votes — a humiliation which after 10 years at the helm he would probably prefer to avoid.

The fourth contender for the top job, Mr Bill Birch, is expected to be the first dropped off the ballot. In fact, some believe his chances are so slight that he will withdraw before the vote is taken and go for the deputy slot. This cannot be discounted as Mr Birch has himself indicated that he put his name up because he is convinced that the deputy will' be selected from among the leadership candidates. The speech in which he declared his candidacy bears this out. Mr Birch recalled the election for deputy in March when Mr McLay romped home with 25 votes, he polled second with 15, and Mr Bolger was a poor third with seven. That result, Mr Birch said, was the considered judgment of the caucus and he doubted that it would “lightly move away from that decision.” “If I am right, the issue facing the party is the best person to reinforce McLay’s style of leadership,” he said. He has since said that he has approached Mr McLay and offered himself as a team-mate and that Mr McLay was “not adverse to the idea.” , Mr Birch is tipped as a possible deputy but the contest for the post remains much less clear-cut than for the leadership.