THE PRESS WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 24, 1984. U.S. election: the final days

Press, 24 October 1984, Page 16

THE PRESS WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 24, 1984. U.S. election: the final days

By most accounts the outcome of the # American election on November 6 is a foregone conclusion. Only a huge upset, perhaps because of a crisis which reflected very badly indeed on the Reagan Administration, would appear to give the Democrat challenger, Mr Walter Mondale, a chance of becoming President. The incumbent has a marked advantage in the American Presidential election, though President Reagan, in defeating President Jimmy Carter, was an exception to the normal course of events. The Reagan Administration has had its crises at home over the size of the Government deficit and its crises abroad over Lebanon, and over Central America; but none of these had the impact that the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the Iranian revolution, and the holding of the American Embassy staff hostage in Teheran had on the Carter Administration’s standing. Only once did the Reagan campaign seem to falter. In the first of the two televised debates between Mr Reagan and Mr Mondale, Mr Reagan seemed less positive. It was, perhaps, not that Mr Mondale was the better debater, but the impression that Mr Reagan gave that he felt uncertain that boosted the Mondale campaign. By contrast, Mr Mondale was firm and sure of himself. Mr Reagan’s popularity has been the result of the personal impression he has made on a majority of voters and, by the time that the second debate was held, he had returned to being the splendid performer on television that he normally is. In the meantime, the two contenders for the Vice-Presidency, Mr George Bush and Ms Geraldine Ferraro, had also held a television debate. This debate was not shown on New Zealand television, but was reported extensively. Mr Bush clearly was out to demonstrate the firmness of the Reagan-Bush ticket. Ms Ferraro could not call on the experience of the former head of the Central Intelligence Agency in international affairs, though she showed herself capable in that debate, as she had showed herself throughout the campaign. The selection of Ms Ferraro by Mr Mondale as his running-mate brought a fresh liveliness to the campaign. It is regrettable that so much of her time has been spent in answering

questions about her husband’s finances. and, in the last few days, about the activities of her parents. To a . large extent, her candidacy was one of the strongest things that the Mondale campaign had going for it. In the television debates Mr Mondale showed himself to have a steady manner and a clear-headed way of approaching issues. The debates probably did much to dismiss views of him as being colourless and weak. In circumstances in which many people would have been distressed, Ms Ferraro remained calm and replied to the charges that had been made against her. It all took time away from campaigning, but she emerged from most of it very well.

For the rest of the world, the most important issue for the future is the relationship between the Soviet Union and the United States, particularly over arms control. During the foreign policy debate, Mr Reagan repeated his contention that, in some matters, the Soviet Union could be regarded as evil. The purpose of the television debates was to let the voters of the United States see their Presidential candidates, not to speak directly to the Soviet Union.

President Reagan has espoused peaceful sentiments for most of this year. When he came to power he was convinced that the United States was falling behind the Soviet Union in military might and this may have influenced him in some of the harsh descriptions he made of the Soviet Union. If he was increasing the amount that the United States spent on arms, he had to be sure that the American people clearly understood why they had to spend more. Perhaps that era of the Reagan Administration’s rule is now over. Mr Reagan has talked about the total elimination of nuclear weapons. The Soviet Union remains sceptical. If Mr Reagan continues to talk in this way after November 6, the Soviet Union may listen more attentively. He will have to overcome a great deal of suspicion for a while; but if he manages to accomplish some of the hopes about peace that he has put forward during the campaign, the rest of the world will welcome, as the Americans apparently do, another four years of President Reagan in the White House.