Germany’s nonstop power fight

Press, 10 October 1984, Page 16

Germany’s nonstop power fight

By

DOUGLAS HAMILTON,

Two years after replacing West Germany’s Left-of-centre alliance, Chancellor Helmut Kohl’s Conservative coalition is still unsettled and top-level changes are predicted before key electoral tests next northern spring. Dr Kohl, who began his third year in office last month, has described himself as “firmly committed to the legacy of Konrad Adenauer” and has emulated West Germany’s longest serving chancellor in his loyalty to the Western alliance. He celebrated his first anniversary in power amid big protests against plans of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation to deploy new United States nuclear missiles on German soil, but faced them down and kept the commitment. In the economic field, inflation at 1.6 per cent is at its lowest in 16 years, growth has been restored, and the Employment Minister, Norbert Bluem, says that he expects unemployment to fall below two million next year for the first time in two years. The present two figure is 2.2 million, 8.9 per cent of the labour force. Nevertheless, Dr Kohl has a low popularity rating, due mainly to blunders and internal strife in his unruly coalition. “When will this Government finally learn to govern?” asked the influential and independent liberal weekly, “Die Zeit.” “The unease is palpable ... Kohl must make changes in his organisation and his team.” Instead of the “spirit of renewal” heralded when Dr Kohl replaced the Social Democrat, Helmut Schmidt, in 1982, his coalition has bucked and swerved through the past year, reversing policy and papering over the cracks. Mr Schmidt is still rated easily the most popular politician in the

of Reuter, in Bonn

country, according to opinion polls, even though he has retired. This may have more to do with nostalgia for his commanding intelligence and statesmanlike presence than with a true desire for his return. Political analysts say that while Dr Kohl’s more easy-going, fatherly image may suit West Germany’s desire to relax after years of engagement under Mr Schmidt, his “hands-off’ approach to the squabbling coalition exceeds what is politically prudent. Most reflect “Die Zeit’s” view that change at the top is imperative. With major electoral tests due next March in West Berlin and the Saarland, and next May in North Rhine-Westphalia, diplomats also expect Dr Kohl to reshape his team. “We think the chances of a reshuffle are very good ... say in March or April,” one diplomat said. Dr Kohl’s room for manoeuvre is tightly limited and Bonn’s delicate coalition balance makes it unlikely that there can be changes radical enough to remove all tension in the alliance. “We don’t see him unravelling the whole package,” the diplomat said. “We don’t expect enormous changes.” What diplomats and commentators do expect is a firming of policy coordination in the Cabinet and the Chancellor’s own team of aides, and replacement of less effective Ministers. The aim would be to show Dr Kohl confidently in control of his lieutenants and to stifle the bickering in coalition ranks. The coalition’s turmoil is rooted in a struggle for ascendancy between the Right-wing Christian Social Union and the liberal Free Democrats the tiny party which

gave Dr Kohl his majority and now clings grimly to its share of power. While the C.S.U. has never formally recognised it, the 1982 coalition pact rests on Dr Kohl’s agreement to let the F.D.P. keep the economics and foreign affairs portfolios it held for most of its 13year alliance with the Left-wing Social Democrats. The arrangement has fuelled Right-wing complaints that the liberals have too much power and do not reflect Bonn’s new Conservative majority. This chafing is likely to continue. Polls show that if an deletion were held today, the F.D.P. would lose the balance of power to the radical Greens. The party, panicked by its plight, has sought to restore a distinct liberal image by rebelling against C.S.U.-inspired policy on foreign workers, the environment, and law and order. Its mutinies have rebounded on the F.D.P., and Dr Kohl has been drawn steadily into the crossfire by newspaper headlines calling for disciplinary action by the “donothing” Chancellor. One diplomat said: “There are now doubts about his ability to deal with sensitive issues. Kohl needs to bring in new blood to answer charges that his team suffers from lack of concept.” Dr Kohl’s relaxed style of leadership has allowed Ministers, their juniors, and aides, to carry on sniping at Cabinet rivals, perpetuating a chronic “crisis” atmosphere which could drain energy from his alliance as it rallies for state elections. Yet, if his goal is to emulate Adenauer by restoring the Christian Democrats as West Germany’s natural party of government, Dr Kohl must seek a con-

servative majority in 1987. Only an outright majority can relieve Dr Kohl of the growing encumbrance of ties to the F.D.P., and it may be within sight. The S.P.D. has stagnated in the

polls since its March, 1983, election defeat and seems unlikely to overtake the Conservatives before 1987. The threat of a Left-wing coalition between S.P.D. and the Greens is also distant.