THE PRESS WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 10, 1984. Back to the polls in Australia

Press, 10 October 1984, Page 16

THE PRESS WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 10, 1984. Back to the polls in Australia

When Australians go to the polls on December 1 they will be voting in their seventh election in 12 years. The election at the end of 1972 was followed by an early election called by Mr Gough Whitlam in 1974. In 1975, the GovernorGeneral dismissed the Whitlam Government and an election was called. In 1977, Mr Malcolm Fraser called another early election the results of which were outstanding, if for no other reason, because they remained more or less undisturbed for a full three-year term until 1980. Mr Fraser tried his luck again at the polls in the beginning of 1983, but his luck had run out and Labour was returned. Whether the present Australian Prime Minister, Mr Hawke, is as enthusiastic about holding elections as was Mr Fraser remains to be seen; but his Government will have had less than two years in office by December. It is expected to be the most expensive election in Australian history. The sum of $32.8 million which has been set aside includes money for new booth screens. Presumably the others have been worn out. Mr Hawke gave two main reasons for the calling of an early election. He considered that the best interests of Australia would be served by synchronising the elections of both Houses of Parliament, thrown out of gear by the calling of the early election last year. He also considered that it would put an end to speculation about his calling an election. The second reason is far from convincing because the Government itself had done little to put an end to the speculation about an early election. There is good reason to hold House of Representatives and half-Senate elections at the same time, but a half-Senate election was not even due in December. Whether a four-year term of Parliament would give Australian Governments a greater sense of security and make them less anxious to call elections is difficult to say. The December 1 election will be accompanied by two referendums. A referendum proposing a change to the Constitution to institute four-year Parliamentary terms has been held over for another day. When the former New Zealand Prime Minister, Sir Robert Muldoon, called an early election for July 14 this year, the National Government had an over-all working majority of one and was under the threat of being unable to command a majority in the House. Mr Hawke’s position is strikingly different. The Liberal Party holds 33 seats and its coalition partner, the National Party, holds 17. The Australian Labour Party holds 75 seats. As if such a commanding lead were not enough, a recent redistribution and an increase in the size of the House of Representatives will help the A.L.P. Previously the Labour Party had to get 51.5 per cent of the votes to gain power. Now it needs to get only 50 per cent on a preferred two-party vote. This means that the coalition will need a swing of 3.6 per cent to gain power in the House of Representatives. Seven weeks before the election, a swing of 3.6 per cent against the Government looks improbable and this must have played a part in

Mr Hawke’s calculations. He is not about to make the mistake that his predecessor made in calling an election early and losing it. At the moment, the A.L.P. is so secure in the electorate and Mr Hawke’s personal popularity so high that the election is best described as “no contest.” The Government may even find that there is a swing in its favour. The Liberals and the National Party fear devastation. The economic indicators are pointing in the Government’s favour. Those who believe that the indicators will go down in the next two months may also believe that this possibility may have induced Mr Hawke to hold an election sooner rather than later.

The Liberal Party seems a sad shadow of its former self. Mr Andrew Peacock has not proved to be an effective leader and has recently been driven to the extremes of alleging links between the world of crime and Mr Hawke. When he was asked to substantiate the allegations he was unable to. He thereupon received such a verbal roasting from the Prime Minister that the Liberals fell disconsolately to discussing not whether Mr Peacock should be replaced, but who should be deputy to Mr John Howard, the present deputy, when he took over the leadership. Mr Peacock still has hopes that something may come out of one of the investigations of criminal activities going on in Australia and that the Government will be disgraced. Such matters as have been disclosed so far appear to reflect on the New South Wales State Government, not on the Federal Labour Party. The association may be hurtful and may damage the position of the New South Wales Premier, Mr Neville Wran, as president of the A.L.P. Even this possible damage is not likely to improve the Liberals’ position in New South Wales. One of the reasons why Mr Hawke called the election in December may have been that it has much to do with the internal politics of the Labour Party. The electoral boundaries are being redrawn and Mr Hawke is anxious to maintain the position of the Right within the Parliamentary caucus. The Left of the Labour Party in Australia is doctrinally pure and has been greatly upset by such matters as the mining of uranium, the entry of foreign banks into Australia, and the generally pragmatic economic policies followed by the Hawke Ministry. For an election in December, the party machines, rather than the rank-and-file party members, may have more say in the selection of candidates. The rank-and-file influence is likely to favour the Left of the party. Mr Hawke wants to avoid having a much stronger representation of the Left in Parliament. It would seem that even the retailers played their part in Mr Hawke’s calculations. They wanted him to avoid having the election interfere with the Christmas shopping rush. As retailers, they know how many days it is until Christmas. No-one can be quite so sure about how many days it is until an Australian election,, though Mr Hawke has at last put an end to speculation for the immediate future.