No cushions among Southland seats

Press, 12 July 1984, Page 13

No cushions among Southland seats

Since 1949, voters in the three Southland electorates have returned other than National candidates to Parliament only twice. That was in 1972 when the Labour landslide gathered in both the Awarua and Invercargill electorates. In 1975, they were returned to National whose candidates have held on to them by varying margins since. Yet National cannot take either electorate for granted. In Awarua, boundary changes mean that Mr W. R. Austin, Parliamentary Undersecretary for Agriculture and Fisheries, has lost probably 1000 votes he could have considered were safely his. His majority of 2341 in 1981 therefore looks less secure. The electorate is divided fairly evenly between town and country, with large portions of north-west and south Invercargill included, and the party’s organisation this election has been matched by agressive campaigning by the Labour Party, which is confident that the seat can be taken. Labour has chosen a Southland Community College lecturer, Mr B. G. Rait, and he has been campaigning strongly for more than six months. Even before the snap election announcement, he had a high public profile on all sorts of issues relating to the electorate. Social Credit has again chosen one of its Southland stalwarts, Mr R. Henderson, but compared with previous years, the party’s electioneering has been quieter. Mr Henderson attracted 4911 votes in 1981 and unless there is an overall swing to the party, he may not improve on that figure on July 14. The snap election caught the New Zealand Party unprepared in the south, even though it had candidates for both Wallace and Awarua selected. In the case of the latter, Dr Duncan Roy was planning a larger campaign for later in

By

CLIVE LIND,

the year but as a busy psychiatrist at Southland Hospital, he has been unable to put in the effort he would have liked. While there is interest in the party, so far that has not become enthusiasm.

In Invercargill, Mr N. P. H. Jones has put Southland on the political map with numerous straightforward utterances, but unless the Labour Party stumbles towards the end of the campaign, he has no immediately troublesome industrial disputes or Springbok tour to help him this election.

Mr Jones was sure that the 1981 Springbok tour, and the support for it in Southland, and the trade union background of his Labour opponent, Mr D. E. H. Soper, a union secretary, helped him three years ago. Mr Soper is again standing for Labour this year and has run a quietly efficient campaign that could surprise Mr Jones when the votes are counted.

Mr Jones had a majority of 1450 in 1981, with Mr Soper attracting 7758 votes. This year, should there be an anti-Government swing, albeit less than the National trend because of Invercargill conservatism, Mr Soper could still win. However, the National Party organisation in Invercargill remains confident and already believes it has two-thirds of the votes required to see Mr Jones returned quite comfortably. Local pundits are, interestingly enough, predicting a Labour Government but

“Southland Times”

Norman Jones holding Invercargill, even though a less than 5 per cent swing would see Mr Jones lose the seat he has held since 1975.

Social Credit has again put forward Mr M. J. Radich, a life insurance salesman, who polled 3382 votes in 1981. Mr Radich is confident he will win the seat, but this does not seem likely. An Invercargill solicitor, Mr M. H. Coughlan, is representing the New Zealand Party, and he could affect both the National and Social Credit vote, and to a lesser degree, Labour’s. However, as a late starter, Mr Coughlan has not yet made much headway. An independent candidate, Mr D. J. Gilbert, an aluminium smelter worker, does not seem likely to receive much support. He has stood to give voters a choice outside the four main parties. In the third Southland electorate, Wallace, the main interest centres on which party will come second. With a majority of 6558 in 1981, Mr D. A. Angus is being challenged by the deputy mayor of Mataura, Mr J. T. Hicks, whose Social Credit Party came second in 1981, and by a Dunedin trade unionist, Mr C. J. Fisher (Labour), and a well-known Gore solicitor, Mr K. J. Phillips for the New Zealand Party.

In this electorate, the New Zealand Party may fare reasonably well because there are solid areas of support in both Te Anau and Gore.