Templeton’s task is how to keep JL out the Joneses

Press, 12 July 1984, Page 13

Templeton’s task is how to keep JL out the Joneses

Wellington attracted nation-wide attention in 1981 when it provided the only three seats lost by the National Government — Kapiti, Wellington Central and Miramar. National is fighting hard to win them back, and Labour is fighting equally hard to retain them. In the intervening three years the previously high Social Credit vote has collapsed in the Wellington Central and Miramar seats, but is still a significant factor in Kapiti. To replace it, the New Zealand Party has established a strong presence in Wellington Central and Miramar, but not Kapiti.

By

Because its situation is now different from the other two, the still marginal seat of Kapiti has more in common with the two electorates to the north of it — Horowhenua and Rangitikei — which are dealt with in a separate article.

But Wellington Central and Miramar have been joined as volatile marginals by a third Wellington electorate, Ohariu, which has traditionally been a safe National seat but is no longer. For Wellington Central, Miramar and Ohariu the prospects of a clear-cut fight between National and Labour have been jeopardised by the New Zealand Party. Estimates of New Zealand Party support in each electorate vary from a minimum of 10 per cent to a maximum of 30 per cent. Unless it can do even better than 30 per cent, it will not win any of the three, but by attracting so many votes it will have a powerful impact on their final results.

OLIVER RIDDELL

As National’s only seat in metropolitan Wellington, Ohariu holds a place similar to that of Fendalton in Christchurch, and they are very alike. Ohariu is based on two wealthy suburbs, Karori and Khandallah. It is the home of top public servants, professional and business people.

Traditional National support has been progressively undercut in successive elections by the more social, liberal and professional appearance of the Labour Party. Ohariu is held for National by the Minister of Trade and Industry, Mr

Templeton, who has a low public profile and weak support base. Labour is represented by an unknown but presentable and noncontroversial young married executive on the Alcoholic Liquor Advisory Council, Mr Peter Dunne. He will not of his own efforts win Ohariu, but the unpopularity of the Government generally and of Mr Templeton personally might win it for him.

The joker in the pack is Mr Bob Jones, the Leader of the New Zealand Party. It would be astounding if he won (and possibly no-one would be more astounded

KlfeCrww @4 the marginal seats

than Mr Jones) but he can certainly affect the result. He is providing an avenue for dissatisfied Nationals, of whom there are many in Ohariu, to cast a vote that is anti-Government but nonLabour.

Mr Templeton inherited Ohariu from Sir John Marshall in 1975. It lost its blue ribbon status in 1978 when he kept it by only 1958 votes, and the margin fell to 1567 in 1981. In 1984 there is no more volatile seat in the country than Ohariu. Wellington Central looks the most settled of three electorates, having been the most marginal in the previous four elections. Labour found the right candidate for it in 1981 when Ms Fran Wilde unseated Mr K. C. Comber. Her majority is only 1283 but her style and person represent the electorate — inner city, modern, redeveloping, very socially liberal, and high public profile. National has put up a very strong challenger in Mrs Rosemary Young-Rouse, who also has a high public profile as a prominent Wellington city councillor. Her problem is that in many ways she is too similar to Ms Wilde.

Again, the New Zealand Party has made a big impact, although exactly with whom is hard to identify. It. is represented by Mr John Feast, who is believed to have established a record with the number of hoardings he has erected around the. electorate. He has certainly attracted a lot of attention. In Miramar, the factors that have hurt National in Ohariu and Wellington Central are hurting Labour. Mr Peter Neilson unseated the former Minister of Works, Mr Young, in 1981 by only 649 votes.

Mr Neilson suffers from the twin handicaps of being young and unmarried on the one hand, and aloof and academic on the other. He has lacked the warmth and skill at social chit chat which enabled Mr Young to hold a former Labour stronghold for National for 15 years. If Mr Young’s daughter, Mrs Young-Rouse, had stood for Miramar instead of Wellington Central he would be in even deeper trouble.

Instead, National has put up an unknown and rather colourless candidate in Mr Don Crosbie who, however, can expect to attract the big residue of National voters in Miramar. Attention has been diverted away from Mr Crosbie to the New Zealand Party candidate, the well- , known criminal lawyer, Mr Mike Bungay. He has done practically no electioneering but is attracting support from the many voters who dislike the Government but see no particular merit in Mr Neilson. Although there are a few local issues in these three electorates, such as the fate of the Johnsonville railway line and the need for a new domestic airport terminal, these will not influence the vote on polling day.

All three electorates share the hearty dislike of the Government; all three would certainly go Labour were it not for the presence of the New Zealand Party. It is not possible to predict with confidence the exact influence the New Zealand Party will have; only that its influence will be considerable. All three electorates would be marginal without the New Zealand Party; with it they are more volatile than ever.