Job figures to be given after poll

Press, 22 June 1984, Page 1

Job figures to be given after poll

By

MICHAEL HANNAH

in Wellington

Voters may not be told the latest unemployment figures until two days after the General Election on July 14, too late to know if the figures have continued their four-month slide.

The unemployment figures are published regularly, and are not expected until July 16, when the statistics for June will be given by the Labour Department.

Figures since February have shown a consistent drop in the number of registered unemployed, though a bigger proportion of those out of permanent work are on special work schemes rather than the dole.

The June figures, showing whether this trend has continued, would be of obvious political value to the parties campaigning in the snap election and would give voters an up-to-date picture of the economy. Several regular economic indicators are due to be published before polling day, among them the consumers price index for the June quarter, the food price index for June, the overseas exchange transactions for May, and details of building

permits and retail trade, also for May. Inflation figures for the June quarter are expected to be released between July 9 and 14, according to the Statistics Department. Compilation of the figures was on schedule, the department said yesterday. The C.P.I. figures will be the first to reflect a quarter since the price freeze was lifted on February 29. The last monthly food price index, showing the May price rises, recorded an annual inflation rate of 5.5 per cent for food, compared with a rate of 2.6 per cent in the last year of the price freeze to February, 1984. However, the rate of increase had slowed in May from 1.3 per cent in April to 0.9 per cent. The food price index will probably appear before the quarterly C.P.I. figures, but both are timed to be released before the election.

Overseas exchange transaction figures, compiled by the Reserve Bank, have shown deficits in recent months, except March. A deficit of $164 million was recorded in April, reflecting a surge in import payments, particularly on invisibles.

The statistics for May would normally have been expected early in July, but the bank now expects them to be ready on June 29. Statistics of building permits and retail sales, albeit six weeks old when they are published, are expected before polling date also. The building permit figures have been cited by the Prime inister, Sir Robert Muldoon, as proof of a recovery in the economy earlier this year. The retail sales figures have also shown a boost in activity to April, and this has also been reflected in manufacturers and wholesale stock levels, which are below normal in many cases.

Trade figures for April showed a potential conflict between likely demand for credit from wholesalers and manufacturers wanting to restock, and the Government’s tightening of credit growth as part of its strategy to control inflation.

An indication of the Government’s credit policy should also appear at the end of June, in the reserve asset ratio for trading banks in July. This ratio determines how much money banks have to invest in Government stock, thereby keeping it out of circulation and credit lines. The ratio is expected to be published by June 29.